THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES ( IX )- FIGHTING THE VIRUS ON A WING, A PRAYER AND AN ACRONYM.

   Although it looks more unlikely every passing day we may yet bumble our way through this corona crisis, but it will be through an extra large dose of luck ( high temperatures, native immunity, a weakened strain of the virus, younger demographics) and the police danda rather than because of our health preparedness and systems. Eight weeks into the lockdown and we are still to find answers to faulty testing kits, lack of PPE for health care staff, overflowing hospital beds and inadequate testing. Because, let's face it- over the years successive governments have run our public health and medical infrastructure to the ground, and deaths of hundreds of children every year by the easily treatable AES ( Acute Encephalitis Syndrome) in UP and Bihar are proof of this. We can easily find the money for bullet trains, hikes in MPs' salaries, bail outs for corporates, disfigurement of the India Gate lawns, but somehow never manage to find the funds for improving our fourth world health systems.

   Against the WHO recommendation of 3.5 to 4.0 % of GDP we have provided only 1.6% in the current year ( it was 1.41% in 2008). Even the govt's own advisors ( 15th Finance Commission) had recommended that it should be at least 2.5% or Rs. 145,000 crore against the paltry Rs. 70000 crore provided this year. We have 0.7 beds per thousand population against the WHO recommendation of 3.5, are short of 1.50 million doctors and 2.40 million nurses ; worse, 80% of those available are in urban areas. There were only 20000 ventilators in the whole country when this crisis began. The basic building blocks of health care- PHCs and CHCs- suffer from a shortfall of 22% and 30%, respectively, and 90% of them do not meet the Indian Public Health Standards: 6 out of 10 PHCs have only one Doctor. We are extremely fortunate that, thanks to the luck factor and military style curfews, our broken down health system has not yet been tested by the kind of numbers in America and Europe, for then the consequences would be catastrophic.

   The present govt. has done little beyond formulating eponymous acronyms. It has done little to start providing the Rs. 1.65 trillion required to upgrade our health system to WHO levels ( PWC study in 2017). Worse, it appears to have decided to hand over the responsibility of public health to the private sector. It will hand over between Rs. 15000 crore to Rs. 20000 crore every year to private hospitals and insurers( under Aayushman Bharat) instead of using that money to improve its own primary and tertiary care institutions; a proposal is under consideration to transfer district level hospitals to private entities; the govt's own CGHS and EGHS facilities are little more than dispensers of patent medicines- for anything of any consequence the patient is referred to a private hospital, at a cost to the govt., of course.

   These private and corporate hospitals have no concept of public service and are in the game only for the maximum that they can gouge out of the govt. and the poor patient. Patients under Aayushman Bharat will receive some level of undignified treatment, the rest will be bled of their savings and pushed below the poverty line. The private health sector has been thoroughly exposed in the age of the Corona. Even in these distressing times they have seized the opportunity to make some extra money: according to a report in the Times Of India dated May 11, 2020 the cost of treatment/ consultations in private hospitals has gone up by 25-30% in the last six weeks; the ostensible excuse is the cost of PPEs.  Governments have done nothing to control this profiteering..

  All, and I mean all, the heavy lifting is being done by the creaking public hospitals which are bearing the brunt of this crisis. Their staff continue to struggle on in spite of a massive resource crunch and even when they themselves get infected. The private ones simply turn away Covid patients or just shut down, citing lack of capacity or fear of infection. They put their own interests before that of the public, and since there is little profit to be squeezed out of the virus, they would much rather stay uninvolved or down their shutters. The govt's inability, or will, to involve them in this battle has been very well analysed in an article in THE WIRE by R.V.Barua and Ramila Bisht ( 24.4.2020). They reveal how the central govt. appears to be clueless about a national plan to coopt the private health infrastructure in the fight against COVID 19. The CEO of Aayushman Bharat, instead of compulsorily requisitioning their services under the Disaster Management Act, has simply "appealed" to them to cooperate in the effort! By now all large/ corporate private hospitals should have been commandeered by the govt. in this national crisis, and some of their staff deployed in govt. hospitals to assist the over stretched medical staff there. Only a couple of state govts. have started doing this now, on their own initiative.

  Sitting on the sidelines, these money making entities nonetheless have the gall to demand  financial "relief" from the government. FICCI has asked the govt. to give them a whole host of concessions, ranging from Income Tax benefits to GST exemptions to loan deferments to power tariff concessions. Their greed is beyond comprehension, at a time when hundreds of millions are simply struggling to survive. Their corporate vision is clear: make exorbitant profits when the going is good, raid the public exchequer when the going gets tough.

   The writing is on the wall for our policy makers to see, whether or not it is in Devanagri script: public health is the core responsibility of any democratic government, even one which barely passes muster as one, like ours. It cannot be outsourced like an entertainment channel. The private sector deals in private profit, not public good; when the going gets tough, it gets going- in the opposite direction. Any responsible dispensation just HAS to find the moneys to fund public health infrastructure- beg, borrow, steal, print or, even better, jettison a few Quixotic fantasies. If Mr. Harshvardhan wants to learn how this is done, he doesn't have to trouble himself too much- just study the Kerala model.

   Kerala was the first state to bear the brunt of COVID, and now it the first which can more or less claim victory over it. This did not come about by luck or egoistic acronyms or private sector benevolence, but by consistent and far sighted policies to strengthen local bodies, decentralisation of powers, and by investment in its health care systems, which were not hocked out to robber barons. Kerala spends 6.5% of its GSDP on health as against the Centre's 1.7%, in per capita terms Rs. 7636 as against the national average of Rs. 3800. In the aftermath of the attack by the NIPAH virus in 2018 it has spent Rs. 4000 crore to upgrade its public health systems. It has not taken the privatisation route but has prioritised the strengthening of primary and preventive care, a gradual shift to generic medicines. Its goal is to double public spending on health in the next five years. Globally also, the countries which have done the best against COVID- Canada, New Zealand, Cuba, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland - are those which have robust public health systems and infrastructure.
  Kerala's active social conscience has also played a major role in containing the epidemic. While the rest of India was watching re-runs of Ramayan on TV, the government in Kerala was putting in place community kitchens, relief shelters for guest workers, strengthening its hospitals, setting up contact tracing teams, and opening up its public distribution system. It was the first state to announce a relief package, one that was people oriented and not intended to mollify corporates alone. The state is an example of what investment in health and social sectors, combined with an empathetic attitude, can deliver in times of crises.
   Finally, waiting in the wings is another catastrophe, as pointed out by Akriti Singh in a wonderfully researched article in THE CITIZEN of 4th May ( CANCER HAS NOT STOPPED, BUT THE TREATMENT HAS). The article focuses on the plight of the millions of patients of other medical conditions who are being left untreated because of the government's exclusive( and short sighted) obsession with the more glamorous COVID. She cites ICMR's own data to show that during the lock down period, in the normal course, 300,000 fresh cancer patients would have been diagnosed, but have not been, because hospitals are either shut or dealing only with COVID cases. In addition, millions of other patients- not only of cancer but also of other life threatening ailments of the heart, kidneys, diabetes,- have been unable to access the treatments/ surgeries they normally could. Adhering to guidelines of the Health Ministry and AIIMS Delhi, hospitals are performing only 10% of their normal surgeries, supply lines of vital medicines have collapsed, radiation, dialysis and other therapies are just not available.
  The Lancet magazine, in an article ( 5th May, 2020) has also raised the red flag. Quoting from the National Health Mission's own data, it states that in March 2020 there were 69% fewer vaccinations for measles, rubella and mumps as compared to the March 2019 figures; there were significant reductions for other conditions also: 21% for institutional deliveries, 52% for clinical interventions for acute cardiac events, and 32% for pulmonary interventions. These figures could have only deteriorated in April and May.
  This neglect of routine health care may be because the governments are obsessed with COVID or because they realise that we do not have the capacity to handle both. That is a sorry comment on both our health infrastructure and on our lack of any  short term planning and long term vision. In either case, this is a ticking time bomb which may result in a surge of non COVID fatalities in the months to come. Even if we defeat the virus it may well be a Pyrrhic victory. 

   There are many lessons which the coronavirus is teaching us- on the nation's health, economy, environment, social equity. And we have to learn them fast, for the next corona is not far way. Are we willing to learn, own up to past mistakes and make mid-course corrections or will we continue to fly on a wing and a prayer till the inevitable crash landing?
  

THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES (VIII)--FEEL A LITTLE SHAME FOR THE LOST SOUL OF A NATION.

  This is not about the sorry exodus of millions of our more unfortunate brothers and sisters playing out on prime TV these days. It is not a piece about the government, or about politics or economics. It is neither critical nor sacerdotal. It is not about Mr. Modi or the Biblical scale suffering he has inflicted, yet again, on those who had put their trust in him. That is a matter between him and his Maker, and I hope the potter who moulded him can forgive him, for history will not. This is not about a callous Finance Minister with the rictus of arrogance stretched across her face. It is not about a judiciary which has thrown away its moral compass in the arid deserts of ambition and preference. It is not about a media which has struck a Faustian bargain with the devil and is content to feed on the offal flung its way. It is not about Rahul Gandhi or Mayawati or Nitish Kumar for they have already become irrelevant to the pathetic course of events unfolding.

  This piece is about me and the burden I carry, a burden of shame, that has been sitting on my back for the last few weeks and cannot be dislodged, no matter how hard I try. It' s a burden which just got heavier this morning when I read a post by an army officer describing his moving encounter in Gurgaon with families of "migrants" walking their way to Bihar, no footwear on the weary soles treading on melting roads, hungry and uncomprehending four year olds, of how they wept and tried to touch his feet when he gave them a few five hundred rupee notes.

  I hang my head in shame in the India of 2020. At belonging to a country and a society which exiles tens of millions from their cities, fearful of catching an infection from them, from a virus brought here, not by them, but by my brethren flying in from abroad. Of treating the hapless victim as the perpetrator. Ashamed of being a gullible cretin who swallows all the lies and half-truths churned out by a dissembling official apparatus. Of beating pots and pans as a servile hosanna to an uncaring presiding deity to drown out the sounds of tired feet marching to their distant villages.

  I can no longer recognise the religion I was born into, it no longer has the wisdom of its ancient sages and rishis, or the compassion of an Ashoka, or the humility of a Gandhi. It is too full of anger, of hatred, of violence. It has replaced its once lofty ideals with even loftier statues, caring deeds with dead rituals. It once fed the mendicant and the poor but now drives them away as carriers of some dreadful disease, without any proof. It even finds an opportunity in this pandemic to stigmatize other religions.

  I am ashamed of my middle class status, of many of my friends, colleagues and the larger family even. Cocooned safely in our gated societies and sectors, we have locked out our maids, drivers, newspaper man, delivery boy and a dozen others who have built for us the comfortable lives we now desperately try to cordon off from the less fortunate. We have deprived them of their livelihoods. We encourage another extension of the lockdown because our salaries and pensions are not affected. Our primary concerns revolve around resumption of deliveries from Amazon and Swiggy: the lot of the migrating millions is dismissed as just their fate- the final subterfuge of a society that no longer cares.

   I am ashamed of the thought processes of my class, of Whatsapp forwards that oppose any more "doles" to the hungry millions, that denounce MNREGA- the only lifeline the returning labour have left- as a waste of public money and food camps as a misuse of their taxes. I am ashamed that people like me can encourage the police to beat up the returning hordes for violating the lockdown, which, in the ultimate analysis was meant to protect "us" from "them". For the life of me I am unable to comprehend how we, sitting in our four BHK flats, have the heartlessness to blame sixteen tired labourers for their own deaths: why were they sleeping on railway tracks? How can one not be ashamed when I hear my peers decrying the expense of trains/ buses for the returning migrants, the costs of putting them up in quarantine, when they approve of their likes being flown back by Air India ? This is not double standards, this is bankrupt standards.

  I am ashamed of my social milieu which lauds the leader for dismissing the cataclysmic sufferings of almost five percent of our population as "tapasya", as if they had a choice. I am mortified to see the layers of education and affluence, the facade of civilisation being peeled back by a virus to disclose a heart of darkness in our collective inner core, the sub cutaneous mucous of hatred and intolerance for a minority community, contempt for the destitute. All age old prejudices, bigotry, racism and narrow mindedness have reemerged, fanned by a party which has fertilised their dormant spores.

  I am ashamed of the dozens of four star Generals and beribboned Admirals and Air Chiefs who  were quick to shower flowers and light up ships at a dog whistle from a politician but did not move a finger to provide any help to the marching millions. Did it even occur to them that they owe a duty to this country beyond strutting around at India Gate? That they could have used their vast resources and vaunted training to set up field kitchens for the hungry marchers, putting up tents where the old and infirm could catch a few breaths, arrange transport for ferrying at least the women and children?Their valour has been tested at the borders, but their conscience has certainly been found wanting.

  I am ashamed of our judges who have now become prisoners in their carefully crafted ivory towers, who had repeated opportunities to order the executive to provide meaningful relief and succour to the exiled wretches, to enforce what little rights they still have left, but spurned them at the altar of convenience.

  I am ashamed of our governments who have forsaken the very people who elected them, and are using their vast powers, not to provide the much needed humanitarian aid these disorganised workers desperately need, but to take away even the few rights they had won over the last fifty years. I am ashamed of a bureaucracy that uses a catastrophe to further enslave those who have already lost everything, which insists that illiterate labourers fill in online forms to register for evacuation, pay hundreds of rupees ( which they do not have) for rail tickets, produce ration cards and Aadhar before they can get five kgs of rice, all the while beating them to pulp. Of a Joint Secretary to government who can apportion blame for the infections by religion. This is not Orwellian or Kafkaesqe, this is a government gone berserk. How can one not be ashamed of such a soul-less administration, and of the people who commend its mistakes?

   They will reach their homes ultimately, those marching millions, minus a few thousand who will die on the way. They will not even be mentioned in the statistics: there will be no Schindler's list for them. And we will pat ourselves on our collective, genuflecting backs that one problem has been taken care of, the danger to our neo-liberal civilisation has been beaten back, the carriers have been sent away, the curve will now flatten. But the mirror has cracked and can never be made whole again. As the Bard said, the fault is not in our stars but within us. Or, as  delectably put by another great bard, one of our own who now belongs to the "others":

             " Umar bhar Ghalib yahi bhool karta raha,

               Dhool chehre par thi, aur aina saaf karta raha."

  Actually, this piece is not just about me- it's also about you, dear reader. Look into that cracked mirror. Do you feel any shame, just a little , for what we have become, for the lost soul of a once great nation?  

THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES( VII)- A TOAST TO THE NEW SPIRIT OF INDIA

  Omar Khayyam ( no relation of Omar Abdullah) must be feeling vindicated today. Remember his paean to the grape?

             " And this I know: whether the one True Light

               Kindle to Love or Wrath, consume me quite,

               One Glimpse of it within the Tavern caught

               Better than in the Temple lost outright."

That light has now dawned in India( though not in the dark, convoluted caverns of Mr. Nitish Kumar's brain) and this is our national epiphany: Alcohol is King! It is not vaccines or lock downs or plasma that will save modern civilisation ( if I can call it that, for want of a better word) but the daughter of the grape or ( for those who didn't go to St Stephens) the simple booze, hooch or tipple. The evidence is accumulating faster than Mr. Modi's promises and is far more reliable. Consider.

  Alcohol is now the mainstay of both our health and economic planning. Sanitisers( 60% alcohol) are our first line of defence against the virus, and liquor the Maginot line that protects our economy from collapse. Not the more glamorous Income Tax, GST, Corporate Tax, Dividend Tax but the humble Excise Duty. Ever since the plebeian, stagger- alone "theka" was allowed to open Finance Secretaries have been spotted in Banks depositing money instead of robbing them. All except the Finance Secretaries of Gujarat and Bihar, that is, whose dry begging bowls do not overfloweth. Economists and die hard prohibitionists could not have failed to notice that Mr. Modi was able to announce his Rupees twenty lakh crore package only AFTER the liquor vends opened: when the animal spirits were down it is the distilled spirits that saved the day for us.                                                          This is the golden age of the Drunkard, the latest of the COVID warriors. And just in time for a new breed of warriors, if you ask me, considering that the older lot are busy showering flowers from helicopters and serenading nurses and doctors. Maybe the PM will ask the Air force to sprinkle some grape juice on these sturdy tipplers the next time around. For these coronnials are the face of the new India: when they guzzle free booze they have the power to change governments, when they pay for it they change the economy! They also serve who only stand and wait -for their bottle.

   I hope you have noticed the delicious irony, implicit in the words of Omar Khayyan above: in this avowedly religious country all temples, mosques and churches are closed, but the liquor vends, the Taverns as it were, are open ! Could there be a greater force for secularism than alcohol? The thekas have no restrictions for their avid customers based on grounds of gender, menopausal status, religion, dress code or income: in the house of Bacchus all are welcome. Can there be a greater charter for human rights and equality? No sir, the gods have finally found their rightful abode; as has our Constitution, and just in time too, for its original residence- Parliament- has made it clear that it is no longer welcome there and must find an alternative demesene. These nation building qualities of alcohol have received the ultimate endorsement- by the Supreme Court, which has suggested home delivery of liquor. It's a different matter that millions are still waiting for home delivery of food, but we should not quibble. This is at least a lurch, if not a step, in the right direction. Who knows what stupendous surprises the court may come up with next- home delivery of justice?

                               
                                    [ An important policy input from Whatsapp University ]

  The very term " anti-national" has been redefined, providing much needed relief to the libtards, intellectuals, leftists and dissenters- the new, post Covid anti national is the teetotaler, the wet blanket who refuses to take the daughter of the grape to bed with him. By not having those three pegs every evening he is causing irreparable damage to our economy. In a country where lining up in mile long queues is the true demonstration of patriotism- in front of banks, ration shops, Aadhar centers, ATMs, food camps, railway stations - the failure to line up before the thekas is a seditious act. I am surprised Mr. Arnab Goswami has not yet raised this subject in a panel discussion, but I can give him the benefit of doubt: perhaps he himself is in line outside an "English Wine Store" or an Indian police station. In both cases, however, I expect he will maintain his usual anti-social distancing. It may not work for him but it keeps others safe.

  And here's the clincher: alcohol has ensured that the essence of democracy- dissent, freedom of speech, the right to oppose - is alive and kicking in Bharat, notwithstanding our Doubting Thomases. Just look at how the decision to reopen the thekas has been received in various states. In Delhi it was allowed by AAP but opposed by BJP; in UP allowed by BJP and condemned by SP; in Punjab the Congress permitted it but AAP was not happy; in Maharashtra the Shiv Sena approved it but the BJP criticised it; in Tamil Nadu the AIDMK gave it a green signal but the DMK raised the red flag; in Karnataka the BJP said "hic!" but the Congress said"Huh!" What a glorious moment for democracy, firmly establishing the two building blocks of our enlightened politics: ideology is a waste of time, and in a tavern there are no permanent friends and foes, all are drinking buddies.

  But now, dear reader, I must bid adieu. All this waxing eloquent about the golden hippocrene has given me a raging thirst and roused my dormant nationalistic spirits- it is  now time for a dose of the other spirits. I must bestir myself to the nearest vend to support my country. There's nothing like a martini ( known as a quarantini in these lock down times) to accompany a reading of the Rubaiyat. My wife prefers that other potion for these contagious times, comprising of vodka, orange juice and a dash of sanitiser- it's called Typhoid Mary. It keeps both the bacillus and the husband at a respectable distance.

THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES( VI): IS BHARAT TURNING ITS BACK ON INDIA?

   " We are all born ignorant" said Benjamin Franklin, "but one must work hard to remain stupid." And no one is working harder at it these days than the mandarins in Bangalore. There is no other explanation for the sudden order on the 5th of this month cancelling the trains which were supposed to take tens of thousands of migrant labour back to their home states as per the new GOI guidelines.  (After a massive public outrage the order was withdrawn on the 7th.) But maybe I'm being too harsh  because Mr. Yedduyirappa generally knows which side of his bread is buttered ( it is usually both sides). It is a remarkable  coincidence that the order was issued immediately after his meeting with the builder's lobby- Real Estate Development Association of India. It is self evident that, if the labour left, all construction activity would grind to a halt. Profits would plummet and that would have spin offs for the politics of Karnataka too, for it's money that makes the mare go round, after all. Other states, including Tamil Nadu, appear to be following his lead.

  It goes without saying that this is hostage taking, and a clear violation of the Abolition of Bonded Labour Act 1976- the labour is being held against their will, not  because of the pandemic, since the GOI has allowed them to be repatriated and other states are sending them back; they are being denied their basic freedom and right to choose because the state wants them to serve the purpose of corporate profits, which is the classic definition of bonded labour. Or, as Yogendra Yadav put it correctly, modern slavery. No doubt someone, living in hope, will approach the Supreme Court but that too would be a vain hope. The court, in a petition by Harsh Mander, has already laid down a spanking new definition of right to life and dignity- two meals a day, take it or leave it. Man lives by bread alone.

   But, really, we should not be surprised: Mr. Yeddyurappa's order is consistent with the approach of the central government towards the 130 million migrant labour in India, all of whom are representative of rural India, part time kisans, part time labour. Which in turn accurately reflects policy making in India since 1990: focus almost exclusively on urban India and industries, Gandhi's villages and agriculture can take care of themselves. After all, they do not generate the rupee surpluses needed to grease the wheels of neo liberal capitalism and politics; their function is to deliver the votes every five years on cunningly devised caste algorithms. All the fruits of development have gone to urban India- 400 million people there produce 84% of the country's GDP, the 800 million in Bharat only 16%.

  All industries, educational institutions, hospitals, corporate offices are in the towns and cities. To be fair, Congress govts in the past did make some feeble attempts to empower our villages and extend the charter of rights to their populations: the Panchayti Raj Act, Right to Education, Right to Food, MNREGA, Mid day meals, Sarv Shiksha Abhiyan, stringent environmental regulations. Though much was found lacking in their implementation, at least the intention showed some realisation of the desperate plight of rural India. But the present government, in its pathological quest for "ease of business" and brownie points at Davos, has turned the clock back.

  Enforced digitalisation has deprived millions of their dues, welfare schemes are grossly under funded, retrograde agriculture policies, failure to reform APMCs and obsession to keep food prices low have ensured that while urban India prospers the rural sector remains more or less exploited, with 12000 farmers committing suicide every year. While India grew at 7% ( before the pandemic) agriculture grew at an average of about 2.5% only. We will spend Rs. 100,000 crores to build Smart Cities but will do nothing to upgrade our villages, other than providing a few toilets which don't work because there is no water, and LPG cylinders which 80 % of the village households cannot afford. We will increase prices of petrol and diesel, liquor and cars, charge all kinds of cesses and tolls,but keep a tight rein on agricultural produce because inflation has to be kept under check. On every front the rural sector has been short changed.

   For decades now we have been exploiting the natural resources of the villages to fatten industries and cities: appropriating their rivers, chopping down their forests, acquiring their lands, displacing 50 million people since 1947. Environmental protection laws have been diluted to make these depredations easier. The PESA ( Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas Act, 1996) which was meant to give self governance to, and empower, Gram Sabhas remains more or less on paper because both the central and state govts are unwilling to give village units the power to decide on projects coming up in their areas. The 130 million migrant labour is the cumulative result of these distorted policies. But at least these economic refugees had jobs in cities, SMEs, construction projects to support their families back home- till 2016.

  Two monumental surgical strikes took care of that: demonetisation and GST. And now the military style implementation of the lock down. But this time India's pampered, gated- colony middle classes too made common cause with a callous government to expel the migrants from their cities. Those who had literally built a modern India with their own hands were now treated like pariahs, like the Typhoid Mary- reviled, beaten up by police, branded as carriers of the virus, hosed down with disinfectants like cattle, confined in unhygienic camps, denied the means to travel back to their villages.

   Our rulers and elite would have done well to have listened to Bob Dylan- " when you have nothing, you have nothing to lose." And those who had lost everything- except their dignity, a concept alien to a capitalist society and a callous government- started WALKING back. In small groups first, then in droves, then in their lakhs, back to an uncertain future but a milieu that at least cared, proving wrong an increasingly disconnected Supreme Court that equates the right to life to a loaf of bread. How many have died/ will die on this journey will never be told to us.

   But, with economic activity now set to resume, the tables have now turned, the tube light in the PMO has started flickering- how will industry return to normal without these wretches? The largest number of migrant labour used to be employed in the five most industrialised states- Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu. How will the kulaks of Punjab and the orchardists of Himachal harvest their crops without labour? How will the real estate sector in Gurgaon, Noida and Bangalore now build its over priced buildings? How will our cities run without maids, drivers, rehri-wallahs, security guards, delivery boys? In short, how do you sustain this capitalist bubble without the millions you have just thrown out?

  It is this late realisation which had prompted Mr. Yediurappa, and other opportunists of his ilk, to cancel the trains and create other impediments to their return. The boot is now on the other foot however, and this boot is headed away from our cities and their industrial heartlands. Neo liberal India is now desperate for them to come back, but continues to repeat its mistakes, focusing on the importance of capital rather than on the welfare of labour. Beginning with UP, where most undesirable things originate, states have now started suspending laws made by previous governments to ensure the welfare and non-exploitation of labour.

  But the migrants are not coming back, at least not for the next six months or a year, deferring indefinitely our promised tryst with a five trillion dollar economy. The battle is truly on between Bharat and India, but, for the first time since independence, the terms of trade are in favour of the former. The latest employment figures for April released by CMIE bear this out in no uncertain terms. It states that since February  114 million have lost their jobs, one of every four Indians. Every sector has been bleeding jobs- SMEs, entrepreneurs, salaried class. But there has been an increase of  5.8 million jobs in the agricultural sector ! Even the Niti Ayog should be able to grasp the significance of this.

  In a contrarian way, it appears to me that COVID and the forced exodus of the migrants may just be the best thing to have happened to our rural India, if only our policy makers would read the writing on the wall. As the well known economist Ila Patnaik recently said in an interview, businesses will now relocate and go where it is safer- our metros are no longer safe, they are hot spots of contagion and will remain so for some years; their abundant labour force is no longer available. Our villages are safer, have the natural resources needed for industry, and 430 million workers( 2011 census) who now want jobs closer to home. It's a no-brainer for industry, even if its incomprehensible to the govt. But there are signs that things may be changing- Punjab and Madhya Pradesh have started allowing private mandis in rural areas and small towns. If the mandis come then so will the infrastructure- food processing units, warehouses, cold storages, transport companies, Big Basket and Grofers. If our villages finally become the units for planning and development, this would be a more environmentally sustainable and socially equitable model than the avaricious one we have today. Then the migrants of today would finally occupy their rightful place in the scheme of things. And nobody would have to to die on railway tracks in the middle of the night in their quest for a little humanity and dignity- and a piece of bread: 

                                      

                                 [ The remnants of a dream on the rail tracks of Aurangabad]

The family which was carrying the sorry chapati above was not the migrant, actually. As Ravish Kumar put it so expressively, we, who also came from these villages just a couple of generations ago, are the real migrants, stuck in our heartless gated colonies, our roots severed. The real Bharat has gone back to its home- and perhaps a better life- in the villages. One wishes them well.

THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES ( V)- KILLING US WITH KINDNESS OR CONFUSION ?

   Long years ago when I was posted as a Deputy Commissioner in Himachal, we had a Chief Secretary who would personally pick up his phone, bark a few random orders at the DCs, and abruptly hang up even before the twits had stopped wagging their tails. For the life of us, we could never make out what his orders were because he emitted his verbal missiles at the speed of an AK-47. We were generally left even more confused than the usual state of bafflement to be expected in a 27 year old suddenly shifted from Hindu College to a position where he presides over the fortunes of five lakh souls. It was, therefore, normal practice for us to ring up his Private Secretary and ask him to clarify for our benefit the gist of what his boss wished to convey to us. This didn't work very well, but today I yearn for those days when at least someone helped us to understand the incomprehensible.

  I mention this because in these lock down days I am struck by a feeling of deja vu when I witness the scores of orders being issued spasmodically by the government. It is quite clear that either the govt. has no institutional memory, or has one that retains only the wrong bytes. We all remember the halcyon days of demonetisation, when the Finance Ministry and the RBI issued scores of orders, counter orders, clarifications, corrigendums, erratas on a daily basis, causing so much confusion that all the black money slithered its way back into the banks before you could say " GO, URJIT, GO!" It's all happening again, everyone is desperately seeking clarity but this time there is no obliging Private Secretary one can turn to.

  Orders are issued by the bucketful, and they are "revised", "modified" or "superseded" so often that, like Raakhi Sawant, the final version has no resemblance to the original. And, as in her case too, it leaves us gasping " Yeh dil maange more!" No one takes the original order seriously anymore: everyone waits for the inevitable "clarification", followed by many official " interpretations", and then the final press conference by a Joint Secretary where the original order is withdrawn and a new one issued, triggering the whole bewildering process de noveau. Mr. Modi announced the 3 week lock down on 24th March but said nothing about essential items, creating panic with millions converging on shops and malls: that one night probably generated more cross infection than the next two weeks. MHA clarified the next day but the cops were having none of this for another week and beat up everyone without any bias, distinction or ill will, like a truly professional force.

  Last week an order was issued that neighbourhood and stand alone shops could function. Then it was clarified that "self employed" service providers like electricians, plumbers could function. Next day a Joint Secretary further clarified at a press conference that barbers and beauticians were not covered since they provided services, not goods. Do you notice the confusion and self contradictions in the three statements, dear reader? And we still don't know about that historical figure which is becoming a distant memory- the maid. The whole of India is awaiting her Second Coming

  Take the case of the tens of millions of migrant labour in our metros. It was initially ordered that they could not go home to their villages, notwithstanding that they no longer had jobs, food or even a roof over their heads. Then Mr. Kejriwal, who has almost metamorphosed into a clone of Nitish Kumar, reportedly announced that DTC buses would take them home from Anand Vihar. I don't know whether the buses materialised or not but while Kejriwal was still mumbling away  UP dispatched hundreds of buses to transport those who had not already started walking to their villages. MHA maintained a benign silence at this flouting of its directions. Then states started sending buses to pick up pilgrims, students and stranded tourists. This time Nitish Kumar maintained a sulking silence. No one was clear what the official position of MHA was, even though it pulled up Kerala and West Bengal for deviating from its orders. Finally, on the last day of April it announced that these wretched people could be taken back by their states, and the next day even trains were allowed to ferry them. Was the mass suffering of millions in the interim period of confusion necessary?

   Consider next the confusion over "zoning". What's the difference between a "hot-spot" and a "containment zone"? I live in IP Extension in East Delhi district and there is no hot spot within a radius of three kms on all sides, but I am subject to the rigours of a Red Zone. My addled brain is still trying to locate the logic of this decision: once you have already sealed off a hot spot, why impose a blanket of Red zone restrictions on the other areas in that district? Why not let life go on in the rest of the district/ city?

  A cousin stays in a housing society in NOIDA which has 600 flats, a population of roughly 3000. One old lady in one flat was found to be Covid positive and the entire society/ population has been sealed off/ quarantined for 28 days( mind you, this is after they have already been through five weeks of lockdown!). I find this excessive: at most one particular floor or one tower could have been locked down and all its residents tested, rather than sealing off the entire population. Is this a war on citizens or is this a public health issue? Who is the villain - the citizen or the virus? I do wish the government would not treat this whole affair as a military operation in an occupied territory and not get carried away with similes like "front-line", "covid warriors" or "the enemy". Is it trying to save us or kill us with confusion? 

  The states, of course, like spring, are not far behind. Take this bizarre case from Himachal ( reported in the Chandigarh Tribune of 3.5.2020) : an orchardist of repute, Vikram Rawat whose home is in Karsog, Mandi district, returned from Italy on the 6th of March 2020 and went to Pauri Garhwal, Uttarkhand, where he spent  six weeks. On the 21st of April he obtained an E-Pass from the District Magistrate of Pauri to return to his home in Karsog, HP. He was allowed to enter, reached home and duly informed the SDM/ Pradhan and went into home quarantine. The administration even pasted a notice on his door to proclaim that this was a home under quarantine. But even while Mr. Rawat was admiring the new buds on his apple trees the SDM suddenly ordered him to return to Pauri Garhwal and on the 23rd he was escorted by two cops to the border and pushed into Uttarakhand ! The exile was told he had not obtained the approval of DC Mandi to return to his home and hearth. Which raises the question: are we living in one country or 32 ? Of what use is one DC's pass if the next one won't honour it? After having divided our society are we now also dividing the virus, an Uttarakhand one and a Himachal one?

  I have spent long hours of intense meditation trying to figure out why we are made to suffer this confusion every four years, like a locust plague. Is it a " decision inertia" as Pavan Verma would have us believe; is it a transient phase between natural stupidity and artificial intelligence; is it that the second oldest profession in the world, like the oldest, loves to screw around? And then the whole mystery was resolved by the surfacing of the original blueprint of the plan to tackle the coronavirus and the lockdown, which forms the basis for all subsequent orders. I reproduce it below for the edification of all my readers:

Say ( and complain) no more folks- everything should be crystal clear now.

THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES (IV)- EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY

   Sex has been on my mind these last three weeks. Not of course as a practitioner or a voyeur of the amorous art, but in a purely academic, dispassionate and distanced frame of mind. Somewhat like that old bull let loose in a paddock, full of young bulls and cows happily servicing each other 24X7, including gazetted holidays. The old bull would have no part of this frolicking, till one of the younger ones asked him why? He replied: " I'm from the World Bank, I only have Observer status." Ditto for me, minus the World Bank pension. And I have a few observations to share with you about sex in the era of the lock down.

   You could not have failed to notice that these days the govt. and its various specialists have been advising us on every aspect of life under quarantine: how to wash your hands, how to sneeze or wipe your nose, how to stand in a queue, methods for disinfecting the house, how to avoid depression, even how to beat pots and pans to the tune of Saare jahan se achha . But not one has any advice on whether or not it is safe to have sex during lock down, and whether social distancing includes sexual distancing- if so how so, if not why not? I've rechecked the Prime Minister's Seven Steps three times but find no mention of it; Baba Ramdev has maintained a stoic silence on the subject; the ICMR has given it a skip, even Mr. Kejriwal only coughs ( into his right sleeve) when you ask him about it. The only sensible related advice was conveyed to me by a neighbour who went to a doctor because he was having trouble breathing. Ruling out COVID, the doc advised him:  "Avoid any excitement- have sex with your wife only." Which may explain why I haven't had a heart attack yet but sheds no light on why the Nitty Gritty Ayog is silent on the subject.

   In sharp contrast, the Belgium Health Minister lost no time in drawing her own Laxman rekha: all "non-essential" sexual activity was banned, along with wife swapping, threesomes and orgies, according to a report in the Worldnewsdailyreport.com. " Essential sex" with the wife ( one's own) was permitted. We may however have a problem in adopting this in India. For one, wives may object to including " essential sex" in the daily menu or even the Chef's special; they may prefer to have it as part of a monthly ration under the PDS scheme, to be dished out along with the pulses and cereals once a month ( provided you have an Aadhar card), or even as a, well, one- off Diwali sop. Second, the wife swapping ban is a bit superfluous under lock down conditions with three demographic dividends running riot in the house( who know more about it than you and your ancestors ever did): when you can't make it with your own wife, what chance is there that you'll have better luck with someone else's? Orgies, of course, are a complete no-no, unless you want to invite the local SHO to it. But at least there was some clarity. 

  The Germans have been more forthcoming ( not to be confused with "froth coming" as with Donald Trump). The Germans never mince their words and their health advisory is to adopt the "Doggy position" to avoid face-to-face contact. Now, shifting abruptly from the Missionary to the Doggy position requires, literally, a sexual revolution and should not be attempted if you have spondylitis or a slipped disc . If you are in the Missionary Up position when this advice reaches you, however, you should wait for the next tweet from the BJP's in-house expert on orgasms, that MP from Hyderabad who has been defenestrated by an Arab princess, before redeploying your NPAs. But spare a thought for the proselytising religions for whom this is a mortal blow : their missionary activities have already been quarantined, and now they shall even be dethroned from the Missionary Up position. Don't for a minute under estimate the enormity of the loss: the Missionary Up has been western civilisation's most, well, seminal export to the heathens after syphillis, it has brought more men to their knees than all the Popes since St. Peter : how on earth will they now demonstrate to savages the proper method of praying?

  In any case it's so heartening to know that we are finally picking up some tips from man's best friend. It would, of course, have been better if we had learnt other things from the pooch- loyalty, selflessness, love- but I guess we can't be too choosy: in these difficult times we must take what we can, even if we have to go down on our knees to do so. But even this advice will encounter problems in India. Will the doggy position not amount to a crime under the Indian Penal Code- an "act against the order of nature"? In which case shall we subjected to the sight, every morning, of large numbers of Indian males being led along to the police station on leashes hitherto reserved for their dogs? Is it going to be a dog's life now for us, in more senses than one? I guess the Supreme Court will have to finally decide on the matter when it returns from its lock down, summer vacations and recusals. It will, however, have to be at most a two judge bench, because the Belgium Minister may not look too kindly on a threesome, and a full bench may look like a juridical orgy to her.
  A friend of mine in government, who knows a thing or two about " working from home", has asked me to keep an eye on the birth rate in January 2021; he expects a massive surge then. It stands to reason, if you ask me. Firstly, the word "working" in our country ( especially in govt. offices) actually means "screwing around", so what else can you expect when you ask folks to work from home? Secondly, washing dishes side by side with the spouse does tend to make those pheromones buzz around a bit, what? I suspect Mr. Alan Greenspan's Underwear Index may also have something to do with it: it has been falling consistently, and with the markets all shut how do you replace the millions of Jockeys worn out with all that sitting on the couch? If hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, lockdown hath no bigger danger than an Indian male with ungirded loins. If you don't believe me have a look at the photo below, of the home delivery of another essential service:

                                 [ Photo courtesy Yatish Sud, unemployed hotelier in Shimla ]

Incidentally, my mole  also informs me that there may be a proposal in the offing  not to issue birth certificates to kids born in January/ February 2021 , on the grounds that their parents did not follow social distancing norms, and that these babies will be deemed to have been born out of wed-lock(down). The ardent parents should have contained themselves..

  In the meantime, of course, the Army has lost no time in educating its own on how to avoid the virus, in the explicit, no nonsense language it is known for. A friend has sent me a photo of a notice put up in a golf course, containing detailed advice on how to handle balls during the corona period ( see below):

                                        [ Photo courtesy Mr. Yatish Sud, now amateur photographer]

Now this is the kind of unambiguous advice we need from our Health Minister so that there's no ball-up in our fight against the virus. ( I presume, of course, that the advice relates to golf balls).

THE LOCK DOWN DIARIES( III)-- SCRAPS WON'T DO, IT'S TIME FOR UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME

   It is time to accept that the global mayhem currently playing out has not all been created by the Coronavirus- it is a catalyst which has exposed the many problems that already existed- chief among

 them being rampant ( and increasing) inequality, pathetic health care systems, lack of social safety nets and environmental degradation. COVID 19 is not just a public health issue- it will begin as one, but its real impact in times to come shall be on livelihoods, social structures, economic models and our ways of life. Limiting myself to India, it is clear that if we don't reform our governance immediately, we will be even more vulnerable to COVID 22 or 23 when it comes around again, as it inevitably shall. There is only so much dependence that can be placed on Ayurveda, Pranayam, Yoga, lock downs and lighting of candles.

   Take the economic model that reigns supreme these days, and has since the 1990s- the neo liberal capitalist theory. Its false Gods are GDP and the creation of wealth, never mind that the top 1% of Indians own 51.3% of the national wealth, leaving only 4.8% for the bottom 60%; putting it another way, 12 million Indians own four times the wealth held by 953 million Indians ( OXFAM report, Davos 2020). The coronavirus is just a temporary nuisance for the former, but a life and death issue for the latter, as the misery and mass suffering of millions of migrants and abandoned labourers in Mumbai, Anand Vihar, Surat, Hyderabad, etc testify to. It is expected that perhaps as many as 200 million additional Indians shall be pushed below the poverty line this year, adding to the 250 million already there. Many will not even be able to access the PDS rations because they are either migrants or do not have ration cards; the collapsed economy will render tens of millions unemployed for a long time. COVID has exposed the inequity and hollowness of the economic model we have been following and it is time to throw out the billionaire with the bath water. It is public values, and not private values, which should shape our economic planning; the distribution of wealth is as vital as the creation of wealth, and the wretched must be given their rightful place at the high table, they should have first claim to the nation's resources.

   Noam Chomsky, the American philosopher and linguist in an interview to DIEM TV ( which all of us must watch) does not mince his words. He ascribes the devastating economic impact of COVID 19 to a " neo-liberal plague", a " savage neo-liberalism" the script of which has been dictated to governments by their " corporate masters". In an alarming aside he further warns that "authoritarian states are quite compatible with neo-liberalism." We have seen enough evidence of this in India too, particularly over the last six years. Corona is telling us that this mould has to be broken, the "Daridranarayan" of Mahatma Gandhi, not the billionaire of Davos, must now become the focal point of all economic planning. A country with more than a third of its population below the poverty line, and with a current unemployment rate of 24% ( rising every day), cannot even think of any other model.

   The time for Universal Basic Income( UBI) has arrived. What India's 800 million poor/ migrant/ landless population desperately needs now is a safety net, not just an uncertain 10 kgs of rice, which in any case is not available to the 139 million migrant workers ( Census 2011) who lack a ration card or even a BPL card. Leading economists and Nobel prize winners have been imploring the central govt. to dispense with these requirements at a time like this when starvation is just over the horizon, but the response would put a four toed sloth to shame.

   UBI is already being tested on a pilot basis in some countries, but the time for clinical trials is over and it must be implemented in the next few months. Vijay Joshi, an eminent Oxford economist, has estimated in a study that giving Rs. 17500 to each household in India every year would cost 3.5% of GDP or about Rupees seven lakh crores. A lot of this, however, can be recouped by doing away with many non-merit subsidies which currently total up to 7.5% of our GDP. Moreover, UBI does not have to be universal: it can be restricted to only the BPL and the migrant workers, in which form its financial implication would be significantly less. We already have the required digital and banking architecture to implement this- the famed JAM trilogy of Jan Dhan, Aadhar and Mobiles; using it for welfare is much better than employing it for surveillance. Combined with a more inclusive PDS, while the UBI cannot prevent the poor from falling,  it can at least ensure that they will rise again some day when the jobs return.

   Exiled by force from their jobs and the cities, almost the entire labour force has now reverse- migrated to their villages, presenting a problematic irony: now that parts of the economy are re-opening there are no workers to turn the wheels of commerce and industry. There is no labour for agricultural operations, 85% of truck drivers have simply abandoned their vehicles ( and freight) on the roads and fled, most construction labour have gone. In their absence supply chains will remain disrupted, and resumption of industry and businesses delayed, for months. The labour are not likely to return soon after their horrific experiences, their fear of further indignities and uncertainties outstrips their fear of the virus.

Even if the inevitable prospect of starvation in the villages forces them to return, the same script will be repeated when the next Corona strikes. To prevent a recurrence of the humanitarian tragedy now playing out, it is imperative that they be assured of a minimum income. Not ad -hoc, temporary doles but a permanent, assured income which will enable them to weather any future storms, stay put, and resume working when the clouds have gone.

  Lack of financial resources can no longer be an alibi for the government to deny them a UBI. A country which aspires to be a five trillion dollar economy cannot allow almost half its population to wallow in poverty and live a life of extreme indignity. Our economic model can no longer be dictated by corporates who have siphoned off ten lakh crore rupees under the guise of NPAs- sufficient, if recovered, to fund UBI for the next five years. This is not just an economic crisis, as Dalal Street would have us believe, but a civilisational crisis for the country as a whole. Worse, it is an existential crisis for our poor: Ms Sitharaman may not admit it, but it takes more than five hundred rupees a month, ten kilos of rice and a police lathi to keep body and soul together. Ask that weeping young worker we all saw on TV at Anand Vihar the other day, without any money, job or food; he just wanted to walk back home in UP two hundred miles away but was not even being allowed to do that.

He has probably gone now but ask yourself- Why in hell should he want to come back? And if he doesn't, then how in hell do we become a five trillion dollar economy?