AUTHORITARIANISM AND THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.

   In the millennia to come, when our history is written ( not, however, by the likes of Mr. Rakesh Sinha, MP or Mr. Dina Nath Batra), it will no doubt record the immense damage done to our culture, ethos, public institutions, democratic fabric and constitutional values by the two terms of the present BJP government.  But it will also record the miracles that are playing out even as I write- the unintended consequences of the government's brutal and unilateral decrees and actions, the unexpected outcomes which their ugly algorithms had not factored in, but which will, in the long run, make this country a much better democracy than what the politicians had delivered so far. Just consider the results of the toxic CAA/NRC brew, the police brutalities, the undisguised vengeance extracted by Yogi Adithyanath, the blatant falsehoods of the Prime Minister and his henchmen, and of the protests that have followed.

   For the very first time in our 70 year history the concept of "secularism" has come out of the rarefied and elite portals of Parliament and the Supreme Court, where for years it had been kept as a captive idol, paraded in public only during elections: freed from its legalistic and political fetters it now mingles joyously with the ordinary citizens in the streets, parks and universities of India. If you wish to see the true face of this creature, go no further than Shaheen Bagh in Delhi, or Roshan Bagh in Allahabad or Park Circus in Calcutta or the Clock Tower in Lucknow or Phulwari Sharif in Patna, or or dozens of other such sites across the length and breadth of India. There you will see Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians sitting together in protest, braving the cold, the discomfort, the loss of earnings, the humiliation and worse by the police. There exists only one identity and one religion there, the one which this government has tried its best to shatter into a thousand pieces- Indian. The ham handed tactics of Ms Modi and Shah have brought about in just two months what the Constitution and courts could not in seventy years- a coming together of all our disparate religions, the real meaning of a secularism hitherto caught up in semantics, didactics and legalism, a realisation that what the constitution has given let no politician rend asunder. Ms Modi-Shah had calculated that with the CAA/NRC combo they would permanently divide the Hindus and the Muslims, picking off the latter family by family, ghetto by ghetto. What they have achieved instead is to bring them together, in a recognition of our religious abundance that goes far beyond a bookish secularism.  And this is just one of the results of the law of unintended consequences, there are others too.

   The citizens of India have also reclaimed the national anthem and the tricolour from the ceremonial tokenism they had been reduced to.  They sing the anthem lustily morning and night, drowning out the sound of jackboots always prowling in the peripheries. They now sing and wave them in the face of police brutalities as an answer to the calumny, untruths, fake news, violence and threats unleashed by an authoritarian government and its sold out media. It is their riposte to the repeated slurs of anti-nationalism, tukde-tukde, urban Naxals, sickular, libtards and similar invectives that make up the vocabulary of those in power. Our flag and anthem have finally found their rightful place- in the custody of the citizens, in the proud hands of a four year old at Shaheen Bagh rather than on the cold flagpole of a sarkari monument. They have acquired meaning and value.

  But it is the women who have sprung the biggest surprise on this government. They are the ones leading these sit-ins, the unseen, unheard fifty percent of India hitherto treated as camp followers of an outsized patriarchal ego. They come from all faiths, from behind the ghunghats, hijabs and burquas; the supreme irony being that the Muslim women whom the BJP had "liberated" by an over reaching Triple Talaq law are now voicing that freedom in a manner that the party finds extremely embarrassing! It is not the Triple Talaq Act which has empowered them, but the foisting of the citizenship issue. Home makers more comfortable in the privacy of their homes, they have now stepped out of not only their houses but out of the centuries of seclusion, to fight for their rights and their children's future. They are no longer deterred by the lodging of FIRs against them, or the ransacking of their homes by the police. Their's is the real secular pushback, against both the Hindu fundamentalists and their own obscurantist ulemas. These protests have given a voice and a power to the women of India that all past legislations could not, and this perhaps is the biggest unintended outcome of the BJP's miscalculations: they are now a force to contend with and the politicians and clergy can no longer ignore them or take them for granted. This can only strengthen our democracy.

  A new idiom and language of democracy has also emerged over this last one month, crafted in the streets and not in the arcane groves of academe or the comfort of plush studios. They can be seen in the creative posters at the protest sites ( " Show me your degree and I will show you my papers! "   "Hindu-Muslim raazi, to kya karega Nazi!:), memes on social media, paintings, lyrics and songs. An entirely new genre of music has emerged, not unlike the heady days of Vietnam, Woodstock, Bob Dylan, Marley and Joan Baez. And so we now have Varun Grover ( " Kagaz nahi dikhayenge"), Sumit Roy ("Go protest"), Poojan Sahil (" Pachtaoege"), and Amaan Yadav (" Ram bhi Yahan pe.") and countless others. It is a festival of egalitarian music.

   Our youngsters- students and youth-long derided as WhatsApp and Facebook organisms- are the vanguard of these protests even as their elders have preferred to play safe. The younger generation has displayed a better sense of history too and of our archival values: they are reacquainting themselves with the Constitution, with Gandhi and Subhash Chandra Bose, even with the older songs that confront tyranny and persecution- songs of Faiz, Nagarjun, Habib Jalib, Allama Iqbal and Dushyant Kumar. They have had to grow up quickly, to recognize the lesser evil, but they have now come of age in the more than 40 universities that have stood up and said "Enough is enough!" India will be the richer for this in the years to come, for from among them will emerge the new leaders of our polity and society, to replace the jaded, corrupt, opportunistic, morally bankrupt and ideologically regressive leaders of today who have betrayed them. 

   It is difficult for citizens to confront a modern state, with its police, armies, coercive agencies and fake news factories. Equally, however, the results of a battle of ideas can never be foretold, and the rule of unintended consequences can never be discounted. Mr. Modi may still ram through his diseased ideas but it will be a pyrrhic victory, and a short lived one, because the opposition to him is changing the country for the better. The hitherto sterile concepts of citizenship, secularism, pluralism, nationhood, equality have come alive and their true value is only now being recognised. It is something the government's arrogance had not bargained for. One is reminded of the words of the poet Mohammad Iqbal: Nations are born in the hearts of poets, they prosper, and then die in the hands of politicians. We may still be spared this fate.

WHY INDIA AND ARVIND KEJRIWAL ARE ON TEST IN DELHI.

     [ This piece was published in THE CITIZEN on 12.1.2020 and in THE WIRE  on 16.1.2020 ]   

    Elections to Delhi have been announced for the 8^th of February 2020. Winning these elections may be important for Kejriwal, but it is even more important for India, or at least for that part of India which cherishes all that the Constitution had promised it. Although Delhi has just 70 seats, only 14 million voters( less than 2% of India’s electorate) and is not even a full fledged state, its politics is disproportionate to its numbers for it is the national capital, houses all the foreign consulates, is the hub of all media reporting, and is a genuine microcosm of India. Its residents represent the full spectrum of Indian politics, ideologies, opinions, religions, regions, castes and concerns. It is, in short, a good barometer of the mood of India.

  And this barometer appears to be falling rapidly, indicative of unsettled weather ahead. The country is caught up in a toxic miasma of controversies and protests over the economy, Kashmir, CAA, NRC, NPR, violence in Universities, police atrocities, strikes by Unions. Mr. Modi’s government, true to its nature, refuses to either acknowledge the unrest or engage with citizens; it is like a Tunnel Boring Machine which can only push forward blindly and has no reverse gear. It continues to defend itself by dissembling lies and half truths, branding all opposition to its policies as anti-national, and unleashing waves of uniformed repression. It uses its massive Parliamentary majority as a sledge hammer to bludgeon the states, mutilate the spirit if not the letter of the Constitution, and bulldoze its divisive policies through an apprehensive landscape. It has just lost Maharashtra and Jharkhand but the loss has only made it more vicious, vindictive and determined to reassert its authority.

  This then is the perilous backdrop of the elections in which Kejriwal has to strive to retain power. The Delhi elections will be a referendum on the lethal goulash of Mr. Modi’s policies, not just on Mr. Kejriwal’s achievements which are considerable and should have won him the elections on their own strength. But make no mistake, the results of these elections will determine the future course of our democracy, and not just who rules in Delhi.

  The unholy trinity of CAA/NRC/NRP is casting its malevolent shadow on this country, it is what is uppermost on the citizens’ minds right now, and is what has unleashed the police repression at Jamia, JNU, AMU, Meerut, Bijnor, Muzzafarpur, Bangalore. It is what has brought the youth of this country on the streets in numbers and anger not seen since JP’s mass movement. It is clear the country does not want this spectre, but our demographic institutions and safeguards will not confront the monster. Expect nothing from the legal challenges in the Supreme Court given its recent track record: at best the court will refuse to intervene on grounds of national security and sovereignty, a-la Rafale, at worst it will rule that the distinction between Muslim and other religions is reasonable. Expect even less from our mainstream political parties and leaders who ( barring Mamata Banerji and Priyanka Gandhi) have crawled into their holes to weather out the storm. Expect nothing but a mercenary servility from the media. Expect little from Big Capital and the expanding list of billionaires, barring a Rahul Bajaj and an Ananda Mahindra here and there. Forget about the "autonomous” institutions, they are riddled with more “ termites” than Assam and Bengal. The Modi- Shah duo, with their customary meticulousness, have sown up all the loose ends. The only part they cannot take for granted is the electorate, and the only language they understand is the message from the ballot box. Nothing will stop them- not the judiciary, not international opinion, not mass suffering, not deaths from violence, not the Constitution, not the collapse of institutions. But an electoral loss in Delhi will almost certainly stop their assault, if for no other reason than that it will give other states ( and even its allies) the nerve and reassurance to oppose the BJP’s disastrous policies. A Nitish Kumar may still turn and a Naveen Patnaik may still get off the fence.

  The only opposition to the government today is civil society, specially its youth and students. Mr. Kejriwal has to mobilise them and win them over, and add their support to the overwhelming good work he has done in Delhi in the fields of power, water, education, slum improvement, women’s safety. He can even nominate some- like Kanhaiya Kumar- for tickets. He should make Delhi police's violence and naked partisanship the basis for arguing for a different party at the state level, to act as a counter check to a rampaging Home Ministry. He should discard the caution he has shown so far in denouncing NRC and NPR: Delhi has tens of lakhs of migrants from Bihar, UP and Bengal whose livelihoods would be destroyed in the struggle to obtain valid documentation from villages they left years ago. The NRC is no longer a Hindu- Muslim issue, it will leave millions of Hindus disenfranchised too, as Assam has shown. He must tap into this fear and not pussy foot around it.

  The BJP, for all its posturing, is not confident of victory in Delhi and some early polls predicting a near sweep for the AAP will make it more desperate and ruthless. It will dig deep into its bag of dirty tricks and black trunks of electoral bonds to manipulate a win. The recent goondaism in JNU may just be a preview of what is yet to come- violence to intimidate and divide, dog whistles to the police, complaints to the Election Commission, more falsehoods by prime time anchors and the IT cell, more false cases against AAP leaders. If all else fails, do not discount a postponement of elections ( the Chief Election Commissioner has already declared that he is empowered to do so) and even perhaps President's rule notified at midnight by a worthy who never sleeps. All this must be anticipated, guarded against, planned for and countered.

  Delhi is the last frontier for India's democracy. Delhi's citizens can no longer feign ignorance or remain disconnected. If the BJP wins this election it will proclaim it as validation for its policies and for CAA and NRC and push them through even more relentlessly and ruthlessly. The Rubicon would have been crossed and there will be no second chance. Kejriwal must win Delhi, not just for himself but for India.

IT'S TIME FOR INDIA TO RECLAIM THE SPIRIT OF FEDERALISM.

             

[ This piece was published in THE WIRE on 3.01.2020 as " A Manifesto for reclaiming the spirit of Federalism."]

   One fault our Prime Minister cannot be accused of is of keeping his word or of delivering on his promises, whether it is the resolve to respect the Constitution, carry all sections of the people with him, provide jobs, double farmers' incomes or improve the lot of the Kashmiris. This " DO NOT DO" list is too long to be pasted on your fridge door so we'll skip the rest of it, except one item: Federalism. You will no doubt recollect that, on assuming office in 2014, one of his first pledges was to abide by the spirit and substance of " cooperative federalism" with the states. True to form, however, he has done everything to demolish it and replace it with an "adversarial federalism", a  centralised unilateralism that does not allow for any discourse, consultation, consensus building or difference of opinion.

   India is a union of states where the states( other than the units of British India) chose to join the Union at the time of Independence: that is why the Constitution gives them a large share of political and legislative autonomy, with separate Central, State and Concurrent lists of subjects. This does not, however, suit the hegemonic ideology of the BJP-RSS combine and its authoritarian streak. Which is why, from day one, the BJP has exerted its all to dislodge opposition state governments, sometimes by hook but mostly by crook. Its early clarion call for a " Congress mukt Bharat" was not just a thrasonical statement of intent, but also a strategy in this direction, where the Congress was simply a metaphor for all opposition parties. And it certainly succeeded in the first four years of its reign, winning state after state or arm-twisting the winners to join its flock: by 2018 its writ ran in 21 states and 72% of the country's geographical area.

   Even then, however, its gluttony for even more power did not persuade it to honour the promise of cooperative federalism and to work with the states. Crucial legislations were passed or amended without any consultation: Triple Talaq; amendments to the NIA Act, Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, RTI Act, Land Acquisition Act; changes to the Companies Act and Representation of People Act to introduce the Electoral Bonds; the Kashmir Reorganisation Act and changes to Article 370; the Citizenship Amendment Act. It used its intimidating numbers to ram a flawed GST through a GST Council. Demonetisation took the states as much by surprise as it perhaps did Mr. Arun Jaitley, the then Finance Minister. Brute majority and partisan Speakers were employed to gag any meaningful discussions in Parliament, the hallowed convention of referring important Bills to Select Committees almost totally discarded. State elections became near military operations, nothing was left to chance or the voter, regulatory agencies liberally deployed to remind candidates and MLAs on which side their bread was buttered, and the difference between buttered toast and bread and water. Central schemes were rammed through without conferring with the states- Ayushman Bharat, Crop Insurance, Swachh Bharat, Namami Ganga, Minimum Support Prices, Income Scheme for farmers. It mattered little that some states had their own schemes- sometimes better ones- for the intention was to promote only the BJP brand and drive all others out of the market, not unlike what Mr. Ambani was permitted to do for the telecom sector. It was made clear that the union govt. did not trust the state govts and so the convention of informing the state govt. of impending raids by CBI or ED was jettisoned and central forces, not local police, were deployed to escort the central teams, at times leading to a near confrontation between the two. The NIA was allowed to trample all over the policing/ law and order prerogative of the states.The Finance Commission is perhaps the most important instrument for determining the division of tax revenues between the union and the states, and thus its terms of reference are of vital concern for the states. And yet, the TORs of the current 15th FC have been changed without any consultation with the states: two in particular- relating to the base population criteria and the setting up of a separate Security Fund- have led to subdued protests, even by some of the BJP's allies. The Great Leader, however, cannot be bothered.

  Till about a month ago it appeared that federalism was all but dead, but Jharkhand and CAA/NRC/NPR have miraculously given it a new lease of life. The BJP is now on the backfoot, having lost Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and barely scraping through in Haryana. It has lost its oldest allies in the TDP and Shiv Sena. It now rules ( along with its allies) in only 16 states and over 39% of India's territory, a big come down since 2018. Led by the feisty Mamata Banerjee, state after state is rejecting NRC, including a few which are part of the NDA or allies of the BJP who had voted for the CAA in Parliament: at last count 11 states had declared that they would not allow NRC to be implemented in their state. A couple of fence sitters ( AAP in Delhi, TRS in Telengana) are also likely to jump onto this bandwagon very soon. Mr. Modi's govt. is characteristically  unmoved and unrelenting as ever, maintaining that since citizenship is on the union list the states are constitutionally bound to implement the NRC.

  That is certainly true, in a narrow technical and legalistic sense. But legality and legitimacy are two different things, and in a democracy  legitimacy is just as important. Any central programme has to be implemented by the states, and if a large number of them are opposed to them they can stall them till the cows come home to Mr. Adityanath's gaushalas. Mr. Modi will soon discover that either he renounces NRC altogether or he enters into a dialogue with the states. In both cases the spirit of Federalism would have won. If he does neither and continues to dissemble or engage in repression, he will lose more allies and soon discover that he is unable to govern: a party may have 400 seats in Parliament but if it does not take the states along it will be a lame duck, such is the beauty of the federal structure our Constitution has given us.

  This is an encouraging sign that the spirit of federalism, which had been smothered these last few years, is reviving and that the states are coming back into their own. The hegemonic BJP will perhaps now realise that their ruthless attempts to paint this vast and disparate country with one colour, one culture, one religion and one identity cannot succeed; that the states are in fact sub-nations of a national whole and must be respected, that India is a country of a thousand identities and cannot be subsumed into one superimposed majoritarian model.

  The Pied Piper's music is becoming increasingly raucous and out of tune with a country which wants to march to a different tune. Notwithstanding his overwhelming majority in Parliament Mr. Modi will soon realise that he cannot function without the federalism he had promised but had mocked and defenestrated. But there is a warning here for the states too- a predator is most dangerous when it is cornered. As more and more states go out of the BJP's toxic embrace ( I have no doubt that both Delhi and Bengal are lost to the BJP, and that the political weather vane  Mr. Nitish Kumar will soon point in a different direction) they cannot afford to be complacent. They need to take control of the national narrative and make the Modi-Shah duo react, rather than the other way around. For instance, they should be categorical and specific about rejecting CAA and NRC- mere statements by CMs is not good enough, they should adopt resolutions to this effect in their Assemblies ( as Kerala has done) to give them a legislative imprimatur . The same needs to be done for the NPR too for it is nothing but NRC by another name and another door. They need to be more aggressive about the GST, the Finance Commission recommendations, central projects which displace people and damage the environment ( like the Bullet train, Aarey, the mining and power projects given to Adani and Reliance in tribal areas). They must be prepared to fight it out in the courts, and in the ballot boxes if the center dismisses them. And most important of all, they must dismount from Twitter and get back to grassroots politics- in the "new" India where the internet is either shut down most of the time or is ruled by the trolls of BJP's IT Cell, there can be no substitute for street-by-street, house-by-house engagement. Mamata Banerjee has blazed a trail in Bengal which other states must follow. Are Rahul Gandhi and his Chief Ministers, Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, Tejeshwi Yadav, Biju Patnaik, Arvind Kejriwal listening?