INDIAN DIPLOMACY AND THE TACT OF THE MATTER

    To keep the synapses in my rapidly deteriorating brain functioning I always ask myself a trick question every week, and attempt to answer it the next week. The question for this week is: is it possible for somebody to be thick skinned and thin skinned at the same time ? If you're the type who thinks logically, your answer would naturally be: No. And you would, dear reader, be wrong, for logic is a lost art in New India.

   Consider our double engine government (both engines are, naturally, from Gujarat, since the one from Uttar Pradesh has been shoved into a railway siding). This government has the hide of a double-horned rhinoceros when it comes to criticism from within the country, and lets it pass by like the idle wind, swatting the occasional carping caviller with an F.I.R. (First Information Report) or two. But when it comes to criticism from abroad its skin is like gossamer, quivering with a carpet of ganglions, ready to take offence even at a hash tag and unleashing its dogs of war in instant retaliation. Its choice of pit-bull is the hapless Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), as suited for the job as a poodle is for the role of a guard-dog. And it does not help that the Ministry lacks a sense of humour, its spokespersons as animated as  marionettes on an off day.

   In just the last year or so the MEA has unleashed a fusillade of IEDs (Idiotic Explosive Demarches) at, among others, Rihanna, Greta Thunberg, Martina Navratilova, Freedom House, V-Dem Institute, Open Doors World Watch List, US Commission on International Religious Freedom, Rashad Hussain who is the Presidential Advisor to Joe Biden, at least two UN Commissions and rapporteurs on Human Rights and Press Freedom, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. These organisations had disapproved of the rising majoritarianism, attacks on minorities and curbing of the press. None of these, of course, concern the MEA directly but it was roped in nonetheless to defend our slighted honour. And it does so in banal, meaningless cliches and jaded platitudes which shows its heart is not in it- for example: that the criticism is based on ignorance of our Constitution, that the matter is sub judice, that India is the world's largest democracy, that our institutions are robust and healthy, and so on. It's time the MEA at least hired some script writers to come up with more imaginative demarches and ripostes- raise a smile at least, if not a nod of approval.

   The Ministry can study, for example, the response last week of  Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry , to constant American claims that Russia was ready to attack Ukraine at anytime. It is worth reproducing it in full with the hope that some mandarin in South Block will read it in his spare time:

" I'd like to request US and British media outlets to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year. I'd like to plan my vacation."

The sarcasm is brilliant and the message more piercing than a stiletto, without any blood being shed. Tongue-in-cheek is always more effective than head-in-sand. For, as Churchill said: " Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to Hell in such a way that they ask for directions."

  This Russian template could have been profitably applied to respond to the criticism of our Parliamentarians and their criminal records by the Singapore Prime Minister recently. MEA's response was the standard default one of "uncalled for", "internal affairs of the country" and the meaningless summoning of the Singapore Ambassador for a cup of coffee paid for by you and me. The culprit was not far off the mark, mind you. What he had said was  that almost half of India's MPs had criminal cases, which is borne out by the ADR (Association for Democratic Reforms) data base which says it is 43% or thereabouts. So, what was MEA crying hoarse about, in this globalised era of 24X7 news? Based on Ms Zakharova's  template, maybe a response along the following lines would have stood us in better stead:

" The Govt. of India has noted with amusement the statement of the PM of Singapore and would like to invite His Excellency to Nagpur to study our culture. Criminals in our Parliament are proof of our tolerance, respect for all life (even low- life) and our compassionate justice system. Having seen both sides of the legal divide, their contribution to law making is immense. To ensure the safety of our citizens the state even provides security to murderers and rapists: there can be no bigger testament to our egalitarian values. Deeply influenced by the teachings of the Buddha, Vivekananda and Mahatma Gandhi (peace be upon his assassin) we hate the crime, not the criminal. We ardently believe that every judge has a past and every criminal has a future- if it be in Parliament, so be it. Our Election Commission (now renamed the Election Omission of India as it has been on leave since 2014 ) does not distinguish between law makers and law breakers since equality is the bedrock of our Constitution, and we are still a few years away from dispensing with this hallowed document."

   Actually, the MEA and its spokespersons have an unenviable and difficult job to do. Defending the indefensible is never easy. A country's foreign policy cannot be separated from what is going on within the country itself, and the first principle of foreign policy has to be good governance at home. As Hubert Humphrey said: "Foreign policy is really domestic policy with its hat on." We appear to be constantly defensive on the global front these days, rejecting international rankings, railing at reputed media outlets, repeating the "internal matters" trope ad nauseam. But none of this is cutting any ice and we are living on our past capital, which is dwindling at the same speed as this government's credibility. This could prove disastrous over time for our global standing. We would do well to remember the words of John F Kennedy: "Domestic policy can only defeat us; Foreign policy can kill us." Like it did those twenty soldiers in Galwan last year.

   The choice before the MEA, therefore, is clear: grow a thicker skin or develop a sense of humour. When you tell someone to go to Hell, do it in a manner that he looks forward to it. If you can't do that then join the U.P. police.

GIVE THEM BACK THEIR HIJAB AND EDUCATION

    Anyone who thinks that the anti-hijab campaign is about discipline and dress code needs to have his or her head examined. And anyone who thinks it's about the emancipation of Muslim women needs to have a frontal lobotomy without any further loss of time. For it's clear as crystal that this is just the latest provocation in the right wing tool-kit for the de-identification of the Muslim community- to deprive them of their visible symbols, rituals and practices that define their identity. The attack on the hijab, remember, has been preceded by various other jihads (love, covid, spitting, conversion, IAS), and contrived agitations against public Namaz, abattoirs and beef, non-vegetarian food stalls, alleged conversions, birth rates, immigration of "termites" and of course the eternal mandir-masjid binary.

   As usual, our Prime Minister has not spoken on the subject. Is it because he realises the pathetic ironies implicit in this latest demonstration of double-speak? That to deprive young girls of education while preaching Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao  is nothing but chicanery of the highest order? That victimising this most vulnerable section of society while proclaiming empathy for them via the triple talaq law is not just a contradiction but an unscrupulous betrayal?

  The hijab is not so much about religion as it is about a woman's modesty and choice, like the ghunghat or the dupatta. It has been worn by generations of girls without stirring up dormant religious fervour in society. It has quietly merged with school uniforms without inviting any undue attention, just like the Sikh turban has with army and police uniforms. It is permitted in the Central govt's own Kendriya Vidyalaya's dress code which prescribes it in so many words:  "scarf with red hemmings for Muslim girls, matching with the lower." And that makes eminent sense to any one but a lumpen- let the head scarf match the colour of the uniform and become a part of it, rather than what it is falsely being made out to be- a defiance of the uniform.

  One would have expected the courts to appreciate this simple truth and reality. Sadly, the Karnataka High Court has not; in its forced quest for a deeper constitutional meaning and interpretation of the hijab it has only strengthened the position of the Hindutva fundamentalists. Its interim order of 11th February 2022 prohibiting the wearing of any religious dress- hijab or saffron scarf- is unfortunate, and misconceived on many counts, as per my humble opinion. It has only made a bad situation worse.

  Before this particular order, many colleges were permitting the hijab in classrooms, even after the campaign against it was started in the first week of January. Now, according to an NDTV report of 16th February, even they have stopped it, fearing charges of contempt of court ! The order has strengthened the hands of a state govt. which has made Karnataka the new laboratory of Hindutva, and of vigilantes for whom such agitations are bread and butter, for they can now legitimately piggy- back on this order to do what they wanted to do in the first place. Their ulterior motive has now acquired judicial legitimacy, till the final order comes, only the good Lord knows when.

  The interim order also ignores a basic principle of jurisprudence- that unequals cannot be treated as equals in law. It accords the same status to the saffron scarf as to the hijab, which is unjustified: the hijab has been a standard and traditional dress for Muslim girls for centuries and they have been wearing it for decades, including in educational institutions and in public. It has been practically de rigueur for them, whether out of religious dictat or modesty or sense of safety is irrelevant. The wide use of the saffron scarf outside of religious institutions or occasions, on the other hand, is a recent innovation as an assertion of Hindu identity, it is not intrinsic wear for members of the community, and certainly not in schools or colleges. By treating both on par, the court has diminished one and elevated the other, considering them equal in tradition and usage, which cannot be correct.

  Equally disappointing is the court's decision to hold that the hijab is a religious accessory, and to therefore examine in depth whether it is an essential part of Islam. The whole issue has now been given a constitutional dimension, and will be examined as such. The last time this happened, in the Ram Janambhoomi case, it took more than fifty years for a verdict to be delivered. The same time frame is likely in this case, and in the meantime the status quo (as directed by the interim order of the court) will mean that Muslim girls can no longer wear the hijab in schools and colleges. This is patently unfair as the enforced status quo suits the anti- hijabists and the state govt. The hijab is a form of dress, not a religious talisman, just like the salwar kameez or the sari or the ghaghra- why, in God's name, should Muslim girls be prevented from wearing it ? By imparting a religious hue to the issue the court is falling into the trap set by the right wing fanatics who would like nothing better than everything to be viewed through a religious prism. Ironically, by doing so the court is also pushing these young Muslim girls into the embrace of the Islamic fundamentalists, adding more grist to their " Islam is in danger" mill. Surely, our judges could not be blind to this?

   Quite often we miss the woods for the trees, and get entangled in undergrowth of no consequence. It must be remembered that the statue of the Goddess Justitia, which is the universal symbol of justice, holds a sword, not a scalpel. It is time our judges used the former, to slash through the thicket of obfuscations, jabberwocky, fabrications, mendacity and duplicity which comprise the tool-kit to harass minorities today, rather than using the ineffective scalpel to probe for a chimera that exists nowhere but in the putrid politics of a certain party. Give them back their hijab, their education and their sense of dignity.

INDIA'S NET ZERO TARGET IS ONE MIRAGE TOO FAR

   The present government at the centre is in no hurry to meet its grandly proclaimed targets. We have it on the authority of the Prime Minister himself that Acche Din have been deferred by 25 years. This year's union budget is a " hundred years" budget, presumably because it makes little sense for 2022. Minister Piush Goel, at a post budget press conference on the 2nd of this month, announced that this budget " lays the foundation for the future." The BJP has been in power for eight years now and if it is still at the foundation stage this does not engender much hope. Which is why Mr. Modi's Delphic proclamation at Glasgow in December 2021 that India will reach Net Zero emissions by 2070- two full generations from now- is not surprising. It is par for the course. It is based on the premise that since in the long run we are all dead, it does not matter what you promise, provided it is far enough in the future.

   Given the disastrous environmental policies being pursued by this govt. there is no way we can achieve Net Zero in this century. Mr. Modi seems to think that it is enough to promote solar power to a level of 350 GW by 2030. While this is necessary, it is not enough by itself without paying attention to other, equally crucial dimensions. Attaining Net Zero involves two broad and parallel strategies- reduction of emissions and sequestering/ capturing the emissions that do take place. This govt. seems to be working only half-heartedly on the first and, worse, completely  ignoring the second.

   India produced 2.41 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2020 (7% of global emissions) and the target is to reduce this by 1 billion tonnes by 2050 and capture the rest, thus achieving the Net Zero status. It does not appear that we will be able to meet either target if the present policies continue.

  To achieve the reduction of 1 billion tonnes it is absolutely imperative that fossil fuels are largely replaced with renewable energy. We will be doing that in percentage terms- the use of coal as part of our energy mix will fall from the present 70-75% to about 40-45%. But the bad news is that in absolute terms the consumption of coal shall GO UP hugely. In an interview to Rajya Sabha TV on 17th December 2021 the Additional Secretary in the Ministry of Coal, Mr. Vinod Tewari, disclosed that coal consumption is projected to almost double by 2030- from the current 930 million tonnes to about 1700 million tonnes. Both domestic production and perhaps imports will go up correspondingly. To supply this demand the govt. will continue to aggressively explore for new coal blocks. And even after 2030 demand for coal shall keep going up; according to Tewari the peaking is expected by 2040-45 only. This does not inspire much hope of meeting the target of 1 billion m.t reduction of emissions by 2050.

   But there exists an even greater worry, even if we achieve the 1 billion tonne reduction target : how do we capture the 1.50 billion tonne plus emissions being pumped into the atmosphere every year ? I have not yet seen any signs of a CCS ( Carbon Capture and Sequestration) policy, which is expected to cost about US$400 billion (2.4% of India's GDP) by 2050. The only mechanism we have to do the job, therefore, is the natural, god-given one- our natural forests and eco systems.  One hectare of moderately dense forest acts as a carbon sink for 147 tonnes of CO2 , and can continue to do so for a hundred years- if it is not deforested. And that is the crux of the problem- we are ravaging and destroying our forests on an unprecedented scale and destroying for ever their carbon sequestration capacity, which is so vital for meeting our Net Zero targets.

   The ISFR ( Indian State of the Forest Reports) will never tell you the truth and continue to conceal the actual facts behind a thicket of dubious methodology, self serving interpretations and internationally rejected values. It continues to claim, year on year, that the country's forest cover is increasing whereas this is not supported by its own figures. Between 2015 and 2021 very dense forests in an area of 31367 sq. kms (3.136 million hectares) degraded into scrub and barren land- a carbon sink capacity loss of 450 million tonnes of CO2. There's more: 9.40 million mature trees have been felled between 2016-20 for various projects- that amounts to a loss of an additional 141 million tonnes CO2  sequestration capacity. I could give more figures but they are not necessary to establish that at this rate of destruction of nature, Net Zero even by 2100 is an impossibility. Instead of increasing our sequestration capacity we are hell bent on reducing it !

  Mr. Modi and his government of myopic tradesmen attach no importance to the natural environment and view it only as a resource to be ruthlessly exploited to favour their cronies. The regulatory framework painstakingly constructed over the years in consultation with civil society and environmentalists is being dismantled Act by Act, rule by rule. Rivers are being damned or diverted, Protected Areas are being denotified, highways being built through tiger reserves, centuries old pristine forests being hacked down for mining coal and diamonds, the Himalayas are being gang raped by  "developers" and its precious glaciers threatened, the Western Ghats are being denied the protection that at least two expert committees have pleaded for. All relevant legislation- Forest Conservation Act, Wildlife Protection Act, Environment Protection Act, Coastal Zone Regulations, to name a few- have been amended to facilitate this pillaging and carpet bombing of nature.

  The very concept of forestry has been changed- from " protection" to " management" and states are being encouraged- "coerced" is perhaps a more accurate term- to accord environmental and forest clearances without proper scrutiny. In pursuit of this unholy haste, as many as 11500 forest approvals have been given between 2014 and 2019, the rate of approval is an unbelievable 99% ! The courts are mute spectators to this carnage. The protests of villagers, tribal communities and indigenous populations and experts are contemptuously ignored. The effects of global warming, climate change and anthropogenic disasters are staring us in the face, but for this govt. "ease of doing business" is the only mantra.

   The current policies are failing to address the two main milestones on the Net Zero pathway- absolute reduction in fossil fuel consumption, and sequestration of emissions. We still do not have a national Energy policy, there is no discernible route map to Net Zero status, there is no mention of CCS plans,  reports about the status and health of our forests continue to be fudged- all we have to go on is an assurance that all will be well in the new Amrit Kaal. And while we trudge towards this new mirage, time is running out- fast.

THROWING THE BABA OUT WITH THE BATHWATER

[ In medieval England a warm water bath in a tub was a luxury. So whole families would indulge in a community bath a couple of times in a month., all dipping into the same precious hot water. The kids came last, obviously, and by their turn the water in the tub was dark with dirt and soap, if not actually black. It is reported that sometimes a child could be not be spotted in the turbid grime, and when the dirty water was finally discarded, a baby or two was also drained out with it ! This is the genesis of the saying " throwing the baby out with the bathwater."] 

   This is a piece on politics, or the legerdemain that passes as politics in India today. Quite a few friends and colleagues advise me not to write on politics, but to to stick to the bureaucratic shenanigans I have been a willing part of. Now that's problematic for me, much as I dislike these scoundrels, because politics and politicians intrude into every nook and cranny of our lives, and can only be ignored at our own peril. I remember the wise words of Cicero: you may not be interested in politics but that does not mean that politics is not interested in you. And so I return this week to my home state of Ulta Pradesh, and the impending elections there, with my two bits.

   The waters in this Indo- Gangetic Bathtub  have never been of RO quality, but over the last five years they have become of cess-pool quality; which was inevitable when an unrepentant fanatic was entrusted with governing the 8th largest administrative unit on the planet. It has become the worst performing state in the country according to Niti Aayog itself, its once vaunted bureaucracy reduced to scavenging for favours, its police a raptorial uniformed force. Baba Yogi and his party have not been able to deliver on any tangible because they have been too obsessed with the manufacture of hate and repression on an industrial scale, and the instruments of delivery, the civil services, have been rendered dysfunctional. But it would be unfair to single out the Baba Yogi alone: his job has not been made easier by the monumental failures of Mr. Modi, from outright dissembling to destruction of the economy, Olympian arrogance, cronyism, pandemic blunders, delusions of grandeur and encouragement of religious bigotry.

   Modi and Shah have a monumental dilemma now in UP- they want to win the state desperately but don't want Yogi around when they do so, lest he present a challenge to the Supreme Leader and Sancho Panza in 2024. In all likelihood their first wish will not be granted, the second will. Even the contrived  "opinion polls" of the lap dog media predict that the BJP will lose between 150 to 170 seats from their 2017 tally, mainly to Akhilesh Yadav. Allowing for a margin of sycophancy of 25%, this translates into the loss of UP for the party. And the exit of the malevolent monk, hopefully not just into history but into oblivion.

   It is not just the belaboured farmers or the betrayed OBCs or the oppressed Dalits who will upset the BJP's apple-cart. This time the youth will form a distinct constituency by itself, cutting across party , caste and religious lines. With the highest unemployment rate of all major states, practically no recruitments in the last five years, their protests being suppressed by unimaginable police brutality, they are poised to pose a major threat to the Yogi. The self confessed Kshatriya has displayed utter contempt for too many sections of society for too long, and will reap the whirlwind on the 10th of March.

   Mayawati, by her characteristic opportunistic passivity, is hoping to play the kingmaker in case of a hung Assembly. She is likely to be disappointed too- her 20% traditional vote share contains a large proportion of Muslim votes, which are likely to desert her this time in favour of the SP. So will  a section of her captive Jatavs, disillusioned with her repeated failure to take a position on atrocities on Dalits (as in the Hathras case). Her vote share could slip to about 14% or 15%- bad news for the BJP. The Congress is bound to increase its vote share from the 6% it got in 2017: it had contested a little more than 100 seats then but is fighting on all 403 now. If it manages to win about 15 to 20 seats ( a distinct possibility with Priyanka Gandhi's appeal to women voters), it can then set the balance right if there's a fractured mandate. This will also bode well for its challenge in the 2024 finals.

   Of course, all this is postulated  on the presumption that the elections are fair and transparent and that the Election Commission has the courage to ensure that., and does not do a repeat of its disgraceful conduct in the Bengal elections last year. EVMs do not appear to be an issue yet, but can become one if there is a " mismatch" in the EVM- VVPAT tallies again, as had happened in 2019 and for which there has been no satisfactory explanation by the ECI yet. Also, that no conveniently  (for the BJP) fortuitous incident of the Balakot/ Pulwama or Muzzafarnagar type takes place. The first signs are not encouraging: no attempt has been made to stop or penalise the Home Minister for his religion laced speeches in Kairana and Mathura; he is allowed to carry out his " door to door" campaigning with hundreds of supporters while FIRs have been filed against the SP and the Chattisgarh Chief Minister for similar events. The Supreme Court continues to disappoint by its persistent reluctance to take up the challenge to the Electoral bonds (which enable the BJP to purchase the electoral mandate rather than win it) or to order a higher sample counting of VVPATs to check any mischief with the EVMs.

   Notwithstanding this, however, UP appears to be impatient to decant the bathtub along with the Baba who has been wallowing in its toxic sediments for the last five years. I do hope someone is preparing a list of the officers and police officials who have been collaborating with him, beyond the call of duty, in the various excesses and brutality that have been the hall mark of this regime. They should be duly recognized for their more Papal than the Pope loyalty and suitably dealt with at the appropriate time.

*               *                 *                 *

   As I write this, there is an on-going debate about Opinion Polls. The Samajwadi Party, and some political commentators, have demanded that the ECI should immediately ban all Opinion Polls because they tend to influence voters. This they do- a recent study by Lok Niti reveals that the unattached or undecided voters, comprising a whopping 65% of an electorate, are indeed influenced by these polls, since they make up their minds close to the polling day. Further, 30% of voters tend to vote for the party being projected as the winner, since they do not wish to annoy the winning party/ candidate. Outside the urban areas especially, it is crucial to be on the right side of your MLA if one wants any work done. This is called the "bandwagon" effect.

   It is also true that most Opinion Polls are tailored to suit the party that pays for them or the channel that commissions them- he who pays the piper will also call the tune, whether it is Abide With Me or Monica Darling. It should surprise no one, therefore, that practically all TV channels these days are proclaiming the BJP as the winner in all five states, whereas the reports from the ground tell a different tale altogether. ( Most Youtube channels, on the other hand, are predicting a drubbing for this party in at least four states !).

   Most of these Opinion Polls are works of fiction Mr. Chetan Bhagat would be proud of. ( Maybe he could consider writing a book titled " Half Truth and One Arranged Verdict."). That these polls are occasionally right is a matter of chance- even a broken clock gives the right time twice a day. They are used to blatantly shore up the TRPs and rarely reflect ground realities. Consider, for example, the range of predictions made by these pollsters in the Exit Poll for the 2017 UP elections: the BJP was given between 161-200 seats whereas it captured 323; the Samajwadi Party was predicted to win from 120-169 seats, it won only 47: the BSP's forecast was even more off the mark- 57-90 while it actually won only 19. In any reasonable world these polling companies would have quietly folded their tents and slunk away into the darkness, but in India they reappear every five years with their mumbo jumbo, funded by you-know-who. In short, these polls have no credibility whatsoever and simply serve their sponsors' purpose.

   Notwithstanding all the above, however, my own view is that they should not be banned. The whole purpose of campaigning is to influence voters, isn't it ?- by campaign speeches, manifestos, Man Ki Baats, inaugurations thinly disguised as official functions, advertisements and hoardings. And these are only the permitted activities; there is a whole arsenal of " hidden persuaders" which we are all aware of. Secondly, reporting of election news, events, interviews, panel discussions, articles, analysis etc.- all these also influence the minds of the voters. Should they also be banned ?

   If everything related to the elections is banned then how does the voter make up his mind? We should stop molly coddling the voter and treating him or her like a babe in the woods, stop trying to " protect" him from "evil" influences: he is 18 years old, lives in the real world and should know which button to press on the EVM. And he does know- time and again he has surprised us, gone by his own intuition and experience and not by the complex pseudo calculations of caste, sex, education, income etc. which our pollsters would have us believe determine elections. 

  So, allow Opinion Polls to continue, till they are thoroughly discredited in time on their own. But they should be made more transparent. The ECI should direct that whenever such a poll is aired or printed it should mandatorily disclose: the agency conducting the poll, the organisation which has sponsored the poll and paid for it, the amount paid and by whom, its structure ( whether online or physical, the basis for selection of respondents, their numbers, the time period to which it pertains, sample size etc.). Put the naked facts before the public, and let it judge for itself whether the pollster or channel are wearing any clothes or not, and if so, of which colour.

   Yeh public hai, sab jaanti hai.