THE SILENCE OF THE GENERALS.

                                   THE  SILENCE  OF  THE  GENERALS

  Everything in life has a foil, an exact opposite which by contrast gives meaning to an object or idea. Thus a hero has an anti-hero, a thesis has its antithesis, an action a reaction, a yang has a yin, a point is contrasted with a counter-point, and so on. In the context of the post Pulwama- Balakot period no one even noticed the total silence on the part of our retired military top brass till the foil was provided on the 8^th of March by Admiral( retired) Ram Das when he publicly protested against the politicisation of the armed forces by sundry political parties and asked the Election Commission to prohibit it. His solitary cry in the wilderness suddenly brought into sharp focus, by contrast, the mute quiescence of the rest of his distinguished fraternity- the retired generals, air marshals, admirals. To be sure, there was a surfeit of them in the TV studios, expounding on tactics, strategy, compellance, but not a single voice condemning the contemptible appropriation of the armed forces by petty politicians, the merchandising of their valour and discipline for votes, the End Of Reason Sale initiated by the Prime Minister himself at Churu in Rajasthan barely hours after the Pulwama attack.

  Never before in the history of this country has the politician made such cynical use of the soldier, even a dead one. Images of the dead CRPF jawans are used as a backdrop on the stage for a political rally, a former Chief Minister openly counts his Parliament seats along with the dead soldiers, a captured pilot is used to build up an election pitch, even the Prime Minister cannot resist making a ghastly pun on the word “pilot” to buttress his warrior credentials. The sins of the Rafale deal are visited upon the Air Force by casting doubts on the MIGs and Sukhois ( and their pilots). The President of a BJP state unit has the temerity to don an army uniform while campaigning for votes. One former Congress Minister even took credit for Wing Commander Abhinandan’s skills and bravery by saying that he was recruited and “matured” during the term of his govt.! The Defence Minister robs the Airforce of its due credit by stating that the air strike was “not a military operation.”

  And it was not just the politician that made mercenary use of the military. The media revealed every bit of information that Abhinandan steadfastly refused to give to his captors, TV anchors bayed for the blood of our own soldiers by hysterically creating an eco-system of war mongering, anyone advising caution and restraint was shouted down by these toilet seat warriors. The BCCI decided to send the Indian cricket team for the ODI in Ranchi wearing army caps, a hollow symbolism- it would have done better by donating a few of its thousands of crores of rupees to the families of those who had died to sustain the TRPs, votes and entry fees. Any part of a military uniform is a hallowed object and it should not be used to score brownie points.

  Which begs the question- given this mass disrespect and discourtesy for the armed forces, why did senior military voices not speak out in protest and anguish? It is, of course, understandable that serving officers could not raise their voices, but what ailed the thousands of the retired ones? It is not that they have not protested or been publicly critical of the government before- just a couple of years ago they were out on the streets and holding candle light marches on the Boat Club lawns in Delhi to press for OROP. Pensions are important but the abominations released after Pulwama and Balakot are much more vital to the military’s dignity, pride and essence. Even more, they are dangerous, for they portray the armed forces as dispensable fodder for the politician and TV anchors, dead or alive. In the words of the American diplomat George F Keenan, what the ruling party and government is seeking to do is to raise war mongering to “ the status of a vast ( national) addiction”: this would be unwise at any time, but is positively diabolical when there is an election to win. For the price of war is always paid by the soldier, not the pontificating elite or the avaricious politician.

   Yet, no one spoke up. The only voice we have heard so far is that of Admiral (retd) Ram Das, though in his letter he claims to speak for other, nameless colleagues. But this is not a time to shelter behind anonymity. These colleagues must come out and be counted, seen and heard. Individual voices tend to get lost, so they must band together into a collective, a pressure group, a segment of civil society that draws red lines which even the govt. and media should not cross. In this they can learn much from a part of the civil administration the military generally looks down upon- the IAS and other central govt. services. The latter have formed a group of hundred odd retired Secretary level officers which has, from time to time, conveyed to the union government and the Prime Minister its apprehensions, disapproval and distress at some of its more deleterious and damaging policies and conduct. These communications have been released to the press and public and every single officer has appended his or her name to them. The govt. may disregard these missives but the public will take note of them. The retired Generals need to do something similar. A conscience is worthless if it will not speak up, a name or rank commands no respect if it will not stand up and be counted.

BOOK REVIEW: PRESERVING A PRICELESS FRAGMENT OF NATURAL HISTORY.

THE GREAT HIMALAYAN NATIONAL PARK- The Struggle to save the western Himalayas.
                      by  Sanjeeva Pandey and Anthony J Gaston.
Published by Niyogi Books, Delhi, 2019.  Rs. 1500/. 364 pages.

     This book is a long due but worthy tribute to one of the finest ecological treasures in the Western Himalayas, a UNESCO site since 2014, but still unknown to most of us. That it has been penned by the two persons perhaps most qualified to do so ( Pandey was Director of the Park for almost eight years and Gaston had conducted the surveys which laid the groundwork for the Park's creation) imbues it with an authenticity and insights an outsider would have found difficult to impart. The book is not a scholarly tome, nor a critique of govt. policies, nor a guide, though it has elements of all three, but an introduction to various facets of the GHNP, inviting the reader to go there and find out more for himself.

   It begins by placing the GHNP in its natural setting in the north-western Himalayas, detailing its geography, vegetation,  climate, forest types, rivers, flora, fauna. Of particular interest is the history, since British times, of issues relevant even today- the effects of grazing and forestry practices, including timber extraction, and the surprising but welcome conclusion the authors arrive at, viz., that" the extent of forest cover, at least in the temperate zone of the western Himalayas, has changed only moderately in the last 100 years." Those who have visited Manali would find this nugget interesting too: the stately deodars that enfold this town today were all planted by the then Conservator of Forests, one Duff, in the 1880's- the original stands of pure deodars in the upper Beas valley had all disappeared by then. Never before have so many hoteliers owed so much to one man!

   The creation/ notification of GHNP in May 1999 followed a detailed scientific study of the biodiversity and demographics involved. The area of the Park, almost 900 sq.kms was well chosen in the middle and upper reaches of the Jiwa Nal, Sainj and Tirthan valleys. It had a very sparse population, no road connectivity, was well insulated from the "development" activities of the Beas basin and was a rich repository of western Himalayan flora and fauna. Even though no displacement of any populations took place, modifications had to be made to the original plan as the Park took shape: three villages intruded into the Park and they had to be segregated into a separate, 90 sq. km. wild life sanctuary called the Sainj Wildlife Sanctuary; an Eco-zone of 230 sq.kms.was carved out on the western boundaries in 1994 to provide a buffer and absorb the biotic pressures generated by the surrounding villages- grazing, herding of livestock, collection of fodder and firewood, extraction of herbs. The ecozone has 160 villages with a population of 14000 and about a thousand households had been traditionally dependent on the park area for these needs.

   The GHNP management quickly realised that biodiversity conservation within the Park would not be possible without providing alternate livelihood options to the families whose rights had been terminated. A Biodiversity Conservation Society was set up in 1996, along with Women's Self-help Groups and Credit and Savings Groups. Their members were given training and marketing support in vermi composting, propagation of medicinal plants ( which the Forest deptt. buys back), manufacture of handicrafts, jams and pickles and souvenirs. Ecotourism and trekking ensures employment to dozens of youth, as does MNREGA. These well thought out interventions seem to be paying off: as Pandey reports from a study carried out in 2011, there has been a significant recovery of vegetation in the alpine meadows as compared to the baseline of 1999, and the population of pheasants and ungulates has also gone up, the earlier resistance by the locals has declined. GHNP is a case study in demonstrating that biodiversity conservation is possible only through socially inclusive programmes and participatory forest management by involving all stakeholders.

   The GHNP is a trekker's paradise and about one thousand of them visit it each year. The chapter on trekking describes the major treks in the valleys of the four rivers that drain the Park: the Parvati, Jiwa nallah, Sainj and Tirthan. The trekking routes, however, are not marked on the accompanying maps, nor are essential details such as altitudes,distances, support services, required permissions provided. Each trek is not very well delineated as it overlaps with others and can leave the first timer a bit confused. The chapter could have been better structured since this is the part of the book that most readers would be attracted to.

  This book is a treasure trove of information for the botanist, zoologist, bird watcher and any lover of nature, for the biodiversity of the GHNP is astounding. It supports hundreds of species of the north-western Himalayan wildlife: 8% of its plant species, 21% of birds, 10% of mammals, 7% of reptiles, 9% of amphibians. It is one of the last remaining refuges of many endangered species: the western tragopan, cheer pheasant, snow leopard, Himalayan musk deer, Asiatic black bear, Himalayan tahr and the elusive serow. Birdlife International has classified it as an endemic bird area. The authors have found that the Park contains the best gene pools of walnut, hazelnut and horse chestnut. ( I had taken some  saplings of the last named tree for my cottage in Mashobra and today I have six of these majestic lords of the jungle standing tall on my grounds!). One of the secrets of the  success of GHNPis that the sheer geography of the Park makes most of it inaccessible- 68% of its area is above 3200 meters. With four major rivers and 1400 streams, all disgorging into the river Beas it is also a priceless storehouse of water.

  The GHNP is now the nucleus of a much larger contiguous Protected Area landscape measuring  2854 sq. kms, comprising the wildlife sanctuaries of Tirthan, Sainj, Kanawar, the Pin Valley National Park and the 710 sq. km. Kheer Ganga National Park embracing the Parvati valley, created in 2012. The state govt. should now work towards designating this entire landscape into a bio-sphere reserve.

  In conclusion, this book can be read at two levels: one, as a celebration of the preservation of what the authors term a fragment of the natural history of the Himalayas, as old as the fabled Pandavas, forever lost elsewhere. Second, as a recognition of the role of biodiversity in maintaining eco-systems and in providing eco-system services. Though mostly successful, GHNP is still a work in progress, an experiment that cannot be allowed to fail. It still faces many threats, to which the authors have alluded in passing: hydel projects, tourism, road construction, vehicular pollution. It will need many more persons of the caliber, and with the devotion and passion, of Pandey and Gaston to enshrine it permanently in the magnificent landscape of the western Himalayas.

    

NO L.O.C. IN POLITICS, NO N.O.C IN DELHI.

   By ordering the IAF to lock its laser bombs on the terrorist camp at Balakot Prime Minister Modi may just have also locked it on to the ballot boxes in the coming elections. While the opposition parties are still grappling with their egos and individual ambitions Mr. Modi may have stolen the election from under their noses with his decisive gambit. Of course, the elections are still two months away but its template has now changed.

  The BJP had been on a sticky wicket with the primary narratives- employment, farmer distress, Rafale, Citizenship bill. a floundering economy, compromised institutions- appropriated by the opposition. Its one trump card, hyper Nationalism, appeared jaded and even overplayed. Its nervousness was evident in its desperate attempts at forging any possible alliance with any party, even those which had been humiliating and blackmailing it. But Pulwama and Balakot have changed all that. It has resuscitated the nationalistic fervour which is being kept at full pitch by the party's social media warriors, obsequious TV channels and by the PM himself in his rallies and statements. Mr. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka has even claimed that the air strike has ensured that the party will now get 22 seats in that state. Mr. Modi himself addressed the political rally at Churu with the images of the 40 CRPF casualties forming the backdrop. The coffins for votes strategy has been displayed unapologetically. A dangerous triumphalism appears to have replaced the earlier narrative.This is the emotional bond which all Indian elections need, which Mr. Modi had managed to create in 2014 but which had been missing so far in the current run-up. Expect this to be fully exploited and kept at fever pitch in the coming months, for this is the BJP's forte. The opposition will find it difficult to counter this new machismo and will have to play along, at the risk of giving all the credit for this action to Mr. Modi. This can only be good news for him. There can, of course, be some blowback in the form of increased terror activities in Kashmir or overt retaliation by Pakistan, but this can only add grist to the BJP mill.

   Which makes one wonder: why did Pakistan choose this critical ( from an election point of view) moment to stage the Pulwama attack? Surely its wily ISI could not have been unaware of the fact that it was handing over to Mr. Modi precisely the " brahmashastra" he desperately needed? Or did it miscalculate badly- expecting the usual tepid, pusillanimous response rather than the ferocious counter that was actually delivered by our Air Force? If so, then it has failed large time, for it has converted what used to be a tactical Indian policy on terrorism into a more robust strategic one which has changed the rules of engagement between the two countries for ever. Somehow, however, I find this difficult to believe: the ISI has been playing this game for too long to have read Mr. Modi's psyche wrong.

  Or is there a second, more diabolic and far-sighted thinking behind the Pakistani "misadventure"? It goes something like this. Pakistan wants Mr. Modi to win the elections! The last thing it wants in Kashmir is peace and a settled and peaceful population there, Kashmiris must always be kept on the boil, alienated and victimised by the Indian state. The BJP government's muscular, militarised policy which views the valley only through the prism of "law and order", the wielding of the Damocles sword of Articles 370 and 35A, its over arching communal agenda, ensures this. The polity of the country as a whole has never been as fractured as it is today, with no political consensus on any issue, not even on national security. All this suits Pakistan fine, a hostile Kashmir and a fractured India is just the biryani mix they want, so why would they not wish for Mr. Modi and the BJP to continue? Think about it.

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  There is only one point on which the Congress and the BJP agree: a pathological hatred for Mr. Arvind Kejriwal. The latter's discomfiture with Mr. Modi's pet bugbear is understandable, not so the attitude of the Congress. It has no presence in Delhi, either in Parliament or in the Vidhan Sabha. Why then is it spurning Mr. Kejriwal's repeated overtures to strike an alliance in Delhi with the AAP to keep the BJP out ? It is learnt that AAP is willing to offer it about 2 of the 7 seats in play, a generous offer by any reckoning. Why then is it determined to commit hara kiri? Rahul Gandhi has shown great flexibility and a shrewd political instinct in the manner in which he has stitched up alliances elsewhere; why have these qualities deserted him in Delhi? He should realise that without a tie-up the Congress will be decimated in the capital by the twin onslaughts of the BJP and AAP; Mrs. Shiela Dixit is a spent force now and at best Marg Darshak Mandal material, Mr. Maken is nowhere to be seen or heard of, Mr. Jolly a political grass-hopper who doesn't know himself where his next hop will take him. Why gift some possible seats to the BJP when every seat will be worth quite a few electoral bonds in May?

  Having said that I have no doubt that Arvind Kejriwal will win the majority of Delhi's seats. The gin and tonic types at Golf Club and the pampered lot in Lootyen's Delhi may scoff at him but he has largely delivered on his promises, though he has had to fight every inch of the way with the BJP, the Lieutenant Governor, South Delhi, the Municipal Corporations, a biased media, even the judiciary- without any support from the Congress, it should be noted. He has steadfastly focused on those who most need good governance: the 40% of Delhi which comprise the lower income households, including the 20 lakhs who live in slums and unauthorised colonies. His priories have been health, education, water supply, slum improvement. Delhi's allocation for health and education is the highest by far among all states in percentage terms : Rs. 7485 crore( 12 % of total budget outlay for 2019-20) and Rs. 15601 crore ( 25%), respectively, and the results are visible. Delhi's govt. schools now match the private ones in quality and infrastructure, and 8000 new classrooms have been added in four years. The 189 novel Mohalla Clinics have treated 40 lakh patients till December 2018: referred patients now get free treatment and diagnostics in the best private hospitals. Few would remember the 20000 litre/month free life-line water scheme introduced by Kejriwal in 2015; it was much reviled and scoffed at by all "experts" then. Well, guess what?- it has more than proved its worth. Not only has it not resulted in any revenue loss, it has actually led to a huge saving in water consumption: the number of households consuming less than 20000 litres/ month has increased from 5.00 lakhs in 2015 to 13.67 lakhs in 2018. In other words, 8.67 lakh families are consuming less water now than they did three years ago. Mainstreaming of the demand for full statehood for Delhi is a wise move for it will find resonance among the 20 million people who are being deprived of the representative democracy that the rest of India enjoys. And finally, Kejriwal's "victim" card may just turn out to be the trump card, not the joker that the effete classes consider it to be.

  Will Mr. Rahul Gandhi reconsider his party's position? The time has come for him to decide who is his bigger enemy- Mr. Kejriwal or Mr. Modi? There is no middle ground here.  

TURNING INTO A FEDERATION OF SILOS ?

 


 Not since the early years of Independence has our country been in such a fractured and dissonant state as it is today. Back then it was states like Tamil Nadu, Kashmir, Hyderabad, Nagaland resisting being a part of India. Today the issue is one of opposition ruled states rejecting the over arching authority of the centre and its agencies and attempting to build legislative and policy walls to keep the central govt. away from its shores. The concept of federalism is being seriously threatened by these developments, and though some push back ( by the states) has always existed it has now been taken to a new level by the BJP's contempt for all other political parties, and by Mr. Modi's personal style of adversarial politics and governance. This is in sharp contrast to his 2014 promise of promoting federalism, just one in a long string of promises that have never seen the light of day.

   This push back by the states comes in many forms, the latest of course being the surgical strike by Mamata Bannerji against the CBI on the 3rd of February.. It was bound to happen sooner or later, given the manner in which the CBI was being used selectively as the BJPs pit bull against opposition leaders exclusively. The warning signs- three states, Andhra Pradesh, Madya Pradesh and West Bengal withdrawing permission for the CBI to operate in these states- were there but Delhi either failed to read them or  ignored them. It thus made the mistake of unleashing the pit bull on the Bengal tigress and has been left licking its wounds, with some band-aid supplied by the Supreme Court. The constitutionality or correctness of her action, as also her disallowing political leaders landing rights in her state, is certainly open to question. The damage to our federal structure, however, has been done- it is now a foregone conclusion that more states are likely to follow the trail hacked out by Mrs. Bannerji.

   Mr. Modi's disdain for any consultation with states before ramming through his  programmes is also driving a wedge between the center and the states. Never before have so many states opposed central schemes, even though it deprives them of central funds. The Bharat Ayushman health programme has already been rejected by West Bengal, Chhatisgarh, Odisha and Delhi who feel that their own schemes are more beneficial. Similarly, the just announced Farmer Income Guarantee scheme has already been spurned by West Bengal and is likely to be rejected by Telangana and Odisha too as they have better programmes in place; others will inevitably follow. This will in turn create more friction and distrust between Delhi and the state capitals.

   An even more disturbing trend is the widening gulf between the southern states and the northern ones, particularly the " Hindi heartland" states. This reverse continental drift is the result of inept politics, economics and demographics. The first is exhibited frequently in the centre's attempts to foist Hindi on the southern states every once in a while, such as by naming Metro stations and milestones on National Highways in Hindi. The RSS ideologue, Mr. Tarun Viay's statement last year about the "dark-skinned" races of the South didn't help matters at all. The economic disparity between the two Indias was exacerbated by the revised  TOR of the 15th Finance Commission which adopts the 2011 population census as a basis for devolution of funds to states instead of the 1971 figures, which had been the norm so far. This is significant because the four southern states have had a much lower population growth than the northern ones since 1971: the average TFR ( Total Fertility Rate) of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala in 2011 was 1.7 against the average TFR of 2.5 for UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This will translate into reduced allocations for the southern states, further exacerbating the resentment of the south against the north. As a percentage of central funds, just UP alone gets more than the four southern states combined!

  The demographic imbalance has sown the seed for another, more dangerous challenge in the coming years. As the populations in the southern states decline and become older in relation to the rest of India, this will create a vacuum in labour supply. Excess labour from a poorer north will inevitably migrate to the south, creating social tensions and antipathy towards these " outsiders". This will only add to the perceived sense of economic and political "dominance" of the north, engendering violent pushbacks. We have already seen the first signs of this in the attack on people from the north-east in Bangalore a couple of years back, and the more recent violence against people from Bihar in Gujarat over the rape of a young girl.

  These forces and perceptions will drive states to devise legal and illegal means to curb the movement of outsiders to their states, thus eroding one of the fundamental premises of our constitution. This has already started in various disguises. Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir already have laws that prohibit outsiders from buying land there. Just last year the Delhi govt. ordered that in govt. hospitals in the state 80% of the beds would be reserved for people from Delhi ( this was struck down by the High Court). It has been trying to impose similar quotas in govt. colleges. Madhya Pradesh has just issued an order mandating that industries which benefit from govt. programmes will have to employ 70% of locals. As unemployment and poverty defy solutions, more and more states will adopt such policies and erect barriers to entry of people from other states. A hyper "nationalism" is forcing hundreds of Kashmiris back to their own state from other states like Haryana, HP, Rajasthan, Jammu post the Pulwama attack.

  The centre's obsession with security has already made migration from one state to another difficult for the common man. Various ID requirements such as Aadhaar, EPIC ( Voter Identification card), ration cards etc. are now mandatory in all walks of life, from getting a phone to opening a bank account to obtaining admission in a school to receiving the monthly PDS dole. A migrant from a village will find it difficult to negotiate these barriers, and will therefore in all likelihood be denied all these benefits. He will not even be able to exercise his most fundamental of rights- the right to vote. This appears to be happening in Delhi where the Aam Aadmi Party has been alleging that more than 20 lakh voters ( from UP and Bihar, naturally) have been removed from the voters' list. The denial by the Election Commission doesn't carry much conviction.

  These are all straws in the wind that do not portend well for the idea of one India. If states and the centre are in a constant state of antagonism and do not acknowledge each others' writ or powers; if people are not able to move freely, study or work where they wish to, settle down in any state of their choice, access the benefits they are entitled to regardless of where they come from, vote based on their current place of residence; if they are regarded with suspicion in states other than their own, if they are subjected to violence or discrimination because they are "outsiders"- then we are not one country but a federation of silos.