[ This piece was published in The New Indian Express on 21.8.2017 under the title A WARNING THAT WENT UNHEEDED. ]
The 2nd of August has gone unnoticed: a pity,
because it has brought the planet eleven days closer to Armageddon. This day
was World Overshoot Day or Ecological Debt Day. It marks that day in the
calendar year when we have used up all the natural resources generated by the
planet for that year: from now till 31st December 2017 we shall be
on an ecological overdraft, eating into our capital. The alarming fact is that
this day is coming earlier each year: 1969 was the last good year when we did
not overshoot; since then we have, every year, been consuming more than what
the earth can produce, on an accelerating scale. In 1993 WOD was on Oct 21, in
2003 it came on Sept.22, and in 2015 it arrived on August 13. We are running
out of time, fast.
There is another
way to compute our environmental profligacy- ecological footprint: the
productive natural area required to fuel our consumption and absorb our wastes.
The global average footprint in 2012 was 2.84 ha. per person ( cumulative
global total 20.1 billion ha.). The available total biocapacity was only 12.2
billion ha. or a per capita of only 1.73 ha. Per person deficit was 1.1 ha. and
the global deficit was 7.8 billion ha. This has only increased in the last five
years with population increase and another 50 million ha. of forests
disappearing. We are also running out of land, fast.
No one should be
surprised. The suicidal obsession with GDP and rampant materialism is driving a
consumer frenzy that has assumed a carcinogenic shape and feeds upon itself.
Just ponder over some figures before you order the next Mac Meal form
MacDonalds. We EAT 100 million animals every year, not including 120 million
tonnes of fish. There are 1 billion cars today, there will be 2 billion by 2050
and fuel consumption will triple to about 250 million barrels per day. The USA
wastes 40% of its food, enough to feed the entire sub-Saharan Africa. We generate
60 million tonnes of packaging waste every year, and the world’s oceans already
contain 86 million tonnes of plastic, destroying marine life, corals and reefs.
There are 102,470 flights every day to 49871 destinations( 2014 figures,
incidentally). Just remember, each minute of these cumulative flights means a
consumption of 5 billion litres of fuel and emission of one billion kgs of C02
every year.
This reckless
consumerism is taking a heavy toll on the planet’s resources. According to IUCN
21000 of the world’s 70000 species of plants and animals face extinction. 75%
of the fishing grounds are exhausted. 34% of the world’s conifers face extinction;
13 million ha. of forests disappear each
year: 30% of the Amazon rain forests are gone. One out of ten major rivers no
longer flows into the sea for most of the year, most of the rest are polluted
beyond measure. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 315 ppm in 1958,
increasing at a modest 0.7 ppm each year. In 2013 it was 400, and going up at
2.1 ppm per year. The tipping point is 450- at this level the damage is
irreversible. Global temperatures have gone up by 0.85 degree Celsius since
1880 and the rate of warming is accelerating.
The Arctic will lose its summer ice-cap completely by 2040; if Greenland
follows, as it must, sea levels will rise by 7 meters, effecting 70% of the
world’s population and 11 of its largest 15 cities: whole nations will go under
to join Atlantis.
It is not the life
style of the average global citizen which is causing this depredation: 80% of
the world’s natural resources are consumed by only 20% of the population, an
imbalance which COP21 in Paris failed to address. Its almost exclusive focus on
CO2 emissions was also misplaced- even if we restrict global warming to 1.5
degree Celsius by 2100 and CO2 concentrations to below 450 ppm, but destroy the
planet’s forests, rivers, oceans and its plants and animals, the planet will
become unliveable. The process has already started: according to the Journal Of
Science most of South Asia will become
unliveable by 2100 because of soaring temperatures, shrinking forests, lack of
water, devastated agriculture, commodity prices and civil unrest. A preview of
the emerging catastrophe is available in India in the escalating number of
farmer suicides, the US$ 10 billion loss to agriculture by Extreme Weather
Events ( Govt’s Economic Survey 2017), the 650,000 deaths annually by outdoor
pollution, recurring floods, the increasing social turmoil.
Governments and
economists have to step back and take a hard look at their policies. “Ease of doing business “ has to give way to
“ Easing of Consumption” ( as tiny Bhutan has shown). We need to adopt simpler
life styles, consume for livelihoods not for self indulgence. Concern for the
natural environment has to be embedded at the heart of every development and
economic policy, and not be seen as an impediment to progress. There has to be
more equity in the consumption of natural resources: the rich cannot be allowed
to corner them exclusively just because they can afford it. We have to change
our life-styles and consumption patterns, consume less of everything: water, fuel,
food, energy, meat, travel, paper, clothes, cosmetics, wood, everything. Only
then can we give a fair opportunity to the planet to renew itself. We still
have a chance- barely- to make the right choices; by 2100 we will have run out
of time. Not all of us can escape to Mars.
Keep track of World
Overshoot Day next year.
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