In my 55 years of adult life (not adultery, as Spellcheck tried to insinuate, though I wish that was true) I have been trying to understand economists and have consistently failed. In my student days I briefly considered doing Economics, till the chowkidar at the gates of Delhi School of Economics pointed out that I had failed every Maths exam I had taken in my life. He advised me not to bother applying, and I, bowing to superior wisdom, took his advice. I tried English at St. Stephens: apparently, all chowkidars are made of the same timber, because this chap wouldn't even let me enter the hallowed portals, saying the gate was meant to keep gentlemen in and vagabonds out! Hindu College was more broad minded and so I joined there, but let us return to economists.
Economists have to be a yet-to-fully-evolve sub-set of homo sapiens, with DNA inherited from the dinosaurs, and it would not be a bad thing if their sarkari version at least becomes extinct soon. No two economists can ever agree on any thing, and there are more schools of thought in economics than there are schools in Bihar. Put ten economists in a room and there will be eleven opinions- and all of them will be wrong. Their entire collective wisdom is contained in gems like: you can pull on a piece of string but you cannot push on it. Give me a break, guys, even my Gurgaon born Indie doggie knows this, and he never went to DSE!
Why is this guy so bugged with economists, you may well ask? Well, they have almost destroyed the planet with their focus on just consumption and GDP, they consider India's projected fall in TFR (Total Fertility Rate) to 1.29 by 2051 (the latest issue of The Lancet) an unmitigated disaster even though we have 1400 million already, the largest number of poor in the world, cannot provide jobs, food or health care to most of them. And these wise men still want our population to grow? Just so that more "productive labour" is available for their icon capitalists? And now, to further confirm that this discipline should be disbanded, we have three outrageous statements by some of our own, home grown, made-in-India, saffron hued economists.
Mr. Sanjeev Sanyal, a historian and alleged economist who is a member of the PM's Economic Advisory Council, recently stated that sitting for the UPSC civil service exams was a waste of time, that it betrays a lack of aspirational qualities, that the bureaucracy is boring and offers no excitement or challenges, that the youth should aspire to be entrepreneurs instead ; he spouted some more of the same drivel but I hope you have got the flavour of his wisdom. He has been effectively countered by Sanjeev Chopra, author and retired IAS officer, in a recent article in the THE PRINT , but I need to add my two-bit too.
With all due respect Mr. Sanyal should stick to history, where he cannot do much damage. People like him in critical policy making bodies, with their ignorance of ground realities, can do immense harm to the country and they are probably the reason why 83% of our educated youth are unemployed, why the state has to provide free food to 800 million persons, why India is the most unequal nation in the world even though we have the fifth largest economy in the world. Sensible policies cannot emerge from brains that think like Mr. Sanyal's does. He understands neither the psyche of the aspirational classes nor the civil services.
Mr. Sanyal's number- crunching and graph-gazing job may be as exciting as a romp in the bed with a nymphomaniac, but he has no idea at all about the nature of jobs like the IAS, IPS or even the IFS. No civil service in the world has the kind of diversity and challenges which the All India Services do- from law and order to development programmes, from handling politicians to holding elections, from building infrastructure to providing relief at times of natural disasters. They have kept the country together through 75 years of the most difficult challenges, notwithstanding all their own deficiencies and the disastrous policies of economists of Mr. Sanyal's ilk. There is reason enough for the youth of this country to aspire for these services, something which Mr. Sanyal should commend, and not pour contempt on. Take a chill pill, sir.
Alarmingly, this gentleman is not alone !One Mr. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Govt. of India, at a function on the 27th of March said that it is not the govt's responsibility to create jobs, and that the govt. cannot solve the unemployment problem. (83% of the educated youth in India are unemployed, and the more educated you are the more likely you are to be unemployed). To me this sounds very much like Mr. Amit Shah's "selling pakoras on the road is also employment" revelation, and betrays the same arrogance of ex-BJP Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad's " government ne naukri dene ka theka nahi liya hai." I have a couple of questions for Mr. Nageswaran: Is it the govt's job only to create billionaires, to ensure that 77% of the country's wealth is owned by the top 10% of its population? [OXFAM report]. Who, pray, will mandate the conditions for job creation if not the govt. of the day?
Wait! There's more of this hogwash. Another economist, Mr. Arvind Panagariya who is the Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission , has made an even more bizarre pronouncement: that income inequality is a necessary side effect of wealth generation, that those who worry about it are "inequality alarmists". The World Inequality Report ranks India as among the most unequal countries in the world in income parity, another report says that income inequality is now worse than in the colonial era, a billionaire spends on his son's pre-wedding celebrations as much money as 100,000 Indians earn in a year, and Mr. Panagariya says we are being alarmist? The irony, of course, is that he heads a body which is constitutionally mandated to REDUCE inter state disparities and ensure a fair deal for all!
I shudder to think what kind of advice these gentlemen are giving the political executive on a daily basis. All these eminence grises are of a distinct saffron hue, which is why they probably occupy the positions they do; such statements are necessary, I suppose, to ensure that the colour does not fade, with disastrous consequences for their cushy sinecures. But the fact is that they continue to wallow in archaic economic ideas which have been discredited long ago by a world now more concerned about rights than privileges. Which is why, like the tyrannosaurus, it is time for them to go.
# as a student of e_lit you would have read some of the satires of jane austen, tongue in cheek observations to point out the absurdities, ridiculousness of all the posturing. evidently you too have the gift as can be seen in your droll tribute "No civil service in the world has the kind of diversity and challenges which the All India Services do - from law and order to development programmes, from handling politicians to holding elections, from building infrastructure to providing relief at times of natural disasters. They have kept the country together through 75 years of the most difficult challenges, ..."
ReplyDeletein a eulogy on one of recently selected election commissioners the_print online journal recorded: "An IIT-Kanpur alumni with a degree in civil engineering, Kumar courted controversy during his tenure as the Kerala PWD secretary. In 2006, a Malaysian contractor, who was the chief project officer of a World Bank aided road project, committed suicide blaming government officials and the PWD ministry for harassing him and delaying payments to his firm." https://theprint.in/india/go-getter-who-delivered-on-article-370-officer-who-piloted-uttarakhand-ucc-2-new-poll-commissioners/1997511/
here is a report about the road project, confirming the quality of the work, and 16 years after it was executed. https://www.newindianexpress.com/good-news/2022/Aug/25/smooth-palakkad-road-a-wonder-in-potholed-kerala-2491075.html
as a qualified civil engineer, from one of our country's finest IIT, surely gyanesh bhai could not have failed to, viz. not recognized the quality, nor had awareness of, access to methodologies, quality tests to confirm work execution met, even exceeded contract standards.
Can we please keep Monika Lewinsky out of this. In an otherwise enlightening post, I think this is a misfire, Avay. I know my comment isn't directly related to the import of the post but a casual reference to ML as some sort of loose woman available for a "romp in bed" is needlessly cruel. If nothing else, Bill Clinton is a better fit given his track record. Incidentally, he was clearly the responsible adult in that relationship but hasn't really paid the same price to his privacy, reputation, mental health, etc. as Ms. Lewinsky. The incident happened over 25 years ago, and that fact that the reference is always about her and not Bill Clinton is a clear indictment of the sexism inherent to our respective societies, though not you personally, Avay. I am actually a fan of yours and have recently purchased your books after listening to your interview with Karan Thapar.
ReplyDeletePoint taken Locomotive_breath, and amends made. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteI am a student of economics... Avay, you have judged our tribe by the rantings of a few Sanghis come lately whose knowledge of economics is confined to their visiting Davos every year to obediently receive brief cases containing policy directions and carry them back to Delhi...
ReplyDelete# certainly not any type of screed from two 'eminence grise'. and not any eulogy, or panegyric: naresh chandra saxena, m.sc. physics, allahabad, secretary to government of india, director, national academy of administration, mussoorie; and duvvuri subbarao, b.sc. physics, IIT, kgp, m.sc. physics, IIT, k'pur; secretary to government of india, ministry of finance, governor, reserve bank of india. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oOzuMjuH_E [the IAS has failed india and must change] ;
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J41rbuVgUic [has bureaucracy failed the poor in india]
"the lady doth protest too much, methinks"- is a phrase to imply someone who denies something very strongly is hiding the truth of it; someone overdoing denial, suggesting that they are, indeed, to some degree complicit, guilty.
Like our final.min.?
DeleteNo surprises there with sarkari economists. Like all others in the present safron brigade these pundits are probably given the script & then instructed to couch it in economic jargon & spew it. These pearls of wisdom are then lapped up by the blind bhakts & used to pulverize infidels like us
ReplyDeleteWhy wasn't the economy booming when sanghis weren't in power? MMS could be added to this list with long list of his failures in his long tenure in beuraucracy as well as parliament. Amartya Sen too deserves to be in this piece
ReplyDeleteThe Vishv Guru has taken steps never seen in Independent India. Arvind Panagariya is the first ever non Indian Citizen to be given Chairmanship of The Finance Commission, in a country where even a peon's job in the Government can only be taken by a citizen of India. US Citizens will now advise the Nation, under the aegis of our Supremo.
ReplyDeleteYou have confessed that you are extremely poor in handling math, for which reason you did not pursue economics. Yet you have given caustic comments on economists.
ReplyDeleteChina’s population is almost equal to India’s. Its TFR has fallen drastically. The Chinese government is worried and urges its people to produce more babies. Why?
I joined civil service in 1978, but soon found the atmosphere in the government was not conducive for sincere, creative people. I had to continue for 20 years so that I would get pension on voluntary retirement. In today’s India, I would have quit in 5 years. Already, most of the brightest graduates don’t try to get into IAS. How many (capable) children of the IAS officers choose to join civil service? Take a survey.
Merely because India has remained one entity and it has a civil service does not mean that the former is the result the working of the latter. Civil service is the only instrumentality that runs the country.
The Government should create opportunities for people to get jobs and be self-employed. It is bad policy if the government tries to eliminate unemployment by creating jobs at establishments run by it. Such a policy would mean that the Government would keep expanding public sector units. It is not correct to think that selling pakora is not being gainfully employed.
I could not find any source material that “83% of the educated youth in India are unemployed, and the more educated you are the more likely you are to be unemployed”.
Despite being sceptical about capability of economists, you have relied on the report of Oxfam. Indian experts have questioned this report. At this stage, one need not worry about inequality in India. Equality of opportunity will lead to reduction in inequality. Ability to improve one's fate depends a lot on family conditions. Suddenly things will not change. That will improve over a generation, not years.
Every few months, the debate between the babus and the lateral entrants reopens like an unclosed wound. Hereafter referred to as the laterals, these parachuted entrants to the PMO, the RBI, the NITI AAYOG and other cream institutions occupy the plummest positions and strut around the hallowed corridors of power with ease and elan. To the consternation of their administrative counterparts the babus who have, as if almost from guilt, entered the Blocks of New Delhi by sheer dint of hard academic distinction at Mussoorie, followed by harder service in the geographical interiors of India. So the impression is that while the laterals are used to holding their heads high and looking down on the rest, including throwing pearls that are caught eagerly by the legislature, the babus are found hunched with heads down, eager to take commands from the Executive and move behind their ministers, lapping diktat upon diktat without questioning.
ReplyDeleteIt is not unusual therefore, for a lateral like Sanjeev Sanyal to have made the utterance he did last week disparaging the civil services as a redundant force with little utility, if at all.
Where the difference lies is perhaps in the journeys. The babus come up from the bottom of the power pyramid, having toiled in rural and backward places amongst other locations, absorbing the micros of administration the hard way. The laterals are typically the elite foreign-educated well-heeled economists tasked to aid and advise the Prime Minister directly on the macros of the country’s economy, for a limited exclusive stint. It is understandable then, that they will release soundbytes that are pleasing to the Prime Minister. If he wishes to see the GDP growing vertically and the nation shifting to a plutocracy, they are not going to disturb that symphony. Does not matter if the per capita GDP is below Bangladesh’s. They will release theories on income inequality and its ultimate benefit. If one Raghuram Rajan dares to differ, he will be made to walk the plank and be trolled ever after.
While lateral entrants may bring in the exotic expertise and perspicacity required to initiate giant strides, the strides will have to be taken by the babus ultimately to lend the required ballast to the country in its path ahead. Berating the civil services will achieve little and obstruct much of the work-in-progress that is India.
The permanently exuberant Navjot Singh Sidhu, in a rare exhibition of percipience had said, and I quote him:
“All that comes from a cow is not milk”.
Perhaps the likes of Sanjeev Sanyal and Arvind Panagariya are best heard with earplugs if they do not re-tune their music.
Bravo... Well said indeed
DeletePart 1: Union Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman's husband Parakala Prabhakar's recent interview, uploaded by the Congress on X, is ominous as it unequivocally prophecies the inevitability of widespread internal strife - "destruction seen in Manipur everywhere" - following the BJP's imminent victory in the 2024 LS election that'll be a prelude, hinted at on many occasions by Mr Modi himself and some of his lackeys, to usher in draconian changes. I've been saying the same thing and more for years. India's on the cusp of splintering into many independent nations as the union of states falls apart under internal disturbances abetted by external aggression. The fiery sloganeering at the JNU in 2016 by hardcore antinationals "...tere tukde tukde honge..." resounds in my ears as I write this missive.
ReplyDeleteThe Muslim population in India is most likely around 22-23%, and not 14-15% as officially declared to stave off mass panic among the Hindus and will touch 28-30% by 2030-32. Learned and lay Muslims in India and Pakistan are openly claiming India's Muslim population is 25% and fast rising. With a rabidly communal BJP in power for a third term, which is the make or break period for Bharat, the fires of destruction will be lit by explicitly sectarian policies, hardline public speeches inciting the majority community, routine demonizing the minorities, diluting or snatching away the constitutional rights of religious minorities and language wars, and within 5-8 years or so the nation could fall apart. The backlash will be commensurate.
A senior RSS karya karta told me 2 years ago, they wouldn't mind if half the population perishes and pieces of the nation separate as long as the Hindu rashtra comes into existence with half the landmass intact with Hindus in an absolute majority. This is exactly what their handlers in the global oligarchy want - divide and destroy! The key leaders in the opposition political parties led by the Congress, religious minorities, communists, naxals, separatists etc are the false opposition and both sides are gearing up for the grand finale with the asleep masses being fed a heady dose of hyper nationalism, Hindutva, Khalsa, Christian theology, economic growth, G20, abrogation of Article 370, Bollywood and Sharia, as the case may be, to turn up the passion and agression on every side. The stage is set for hell to break loose in the Indian subcontinent.
The NWO wants a global population of 1 billion and for this the "useless eaters", the low IQ people everywhere, must go. The gloves are off. They're openly saying it through fronts like Yuval Noah Hariri, Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, John Kerry's daughter Vanessa and others. At present, they're working hard on implementing their guru's Albert Pike's 1871 plan of 3 world wars, handed to him in a satanic seance, that's enunciated in his letter (on display in the London Museum) to fellow Free Mason Giuseppe Mazzini using puppet nations on both sides.
The mess has spiritual roots...
Continued under part 2
Part 2: An aunt from Israel with mystical insight corroborated what some in the Congress said a few years ago about the ruling party in India, patronizing master sorcerers, to invoke dark occult forces to create dissent and mesmerise a vast section of the majority community to unquestioningly swallow the official drivel, which, she said, happened in Germany during WW2 when sinister occult forces were called into play by Aleister Crowley and other high ranking occultists to aid Adolf Hitler. Sri Aurobindo and his Jewish spiritual collaborator, the Mother (Mirra/Myra Alfassa), commented extensively on this occult aspect behind WW2 though unwittingly he himself was a pawn in the hands of the same occult forces who used him to promote hyper nationalism of the Savarkar strand. A naive Subash Chandra Bose sought the help of Adolf Hitler to liberate India from British rule. Had the Nazis been given the green signal by the powers that be to combat the British in the Indian subcontinent and conquer India, the country would've met a worse fate. After Hitler's refusal, Bose rushed to another diabolical puppet, Japan, who consented with the ruthless Japanese Imperial Army (with live reports of them cannibalizing on Indian troops from the INA) at the threshold of mainland India near Kohima but were beaten back by torrential downpour and ferocious British troops. Aurobindo claimed his supramental shakti was behind it.
ReplyDeleteThe partition of India in 1947 was aimed at keeping the subcontinent on simmer till it boils over..
Implementation of the Uniform Civil Code, as the hors d'oeuvre or starter, will ignite the flames . The nation is marked out to fall table d'hote (set menu) style not ala carte where saner choices can be made. It's now clear why Pakistani baiters in their highest echelons of power often talk about "Endia" - end of India - not India.
May HaShem bless you all.
How is this premonitory rant relevant to the core and structure of the blog? A well composed essay drafted lucidly is being hijacked to an entirely unconnected station. There will be other occasions to express these thoughts; for now would you be magnanimous to remove your prophesy from here...?
DeleteI think I'll have whatever you are smoking...
DeleteMr. Sahu, to find the proper source materials you need to take off your saffron blinkers once in a while. About 83% of India's youth being unemployed, kindly see the India Employment Report 2024, jointly prepared by ILO (International Labour Organisation) and IHD (institute of Human Development). And please don't tell me this too is a foreign conspiracy.
ReplyDelete# page 6 of the report you read and concluded that this document reports 'about 83 percent of india's youth being unemployed' reads under the section data sources: the Employment and Unemployment Survey of the National Sample Survey Office provided the main basis for analysis of employment for 2000 and 2012. The National Sample Survey Office reports of the Periodic Labour Force Survey data were available from 2018 up to 2022, along with unit-level data. he unit-level data in these surveys were chiefly used to develop conceptual tools and statistical indicators appropriate for the analysis of the labour market and employment in India. That they are the official data sources was the main reason for doing so.
ReplyDelete"The report was clear that it has heavily relied on government data, as it came from official sources. It also said the data was of high quality, and lent itself to detailed analysis."
# the scholars preparing the report found, discovered from government data that 83 percent of india's youth being unemployed speaks volumes for the complete honesty, transparency, dependable reliability of the 'modi guarantee' which simply does not try to hide the truth, satyameva jayate, that the situation is dire. out of every 1,000 youth, eight hundred and thirty being unemployed is not the sort of government data that our indira congress has ever presented to we the people. given this level of honest candour, transparency, can any of us but desire that there should be continuity on raisina hill
ReplyDelete# avaybhai would have doubtless read the report he cites, with great attention, pondering over detail, and not merely limited himself to the executive summary, which let us be honest, the overwhelming majority of too many of us lesser mortals would have limited ourselves to. but then surely we cannot aspire to be of that level of training, ability, perspicacity, of the cohort that, heaven be praised, "have kept the country together through 75 years of the most difficult challenges, notwithstanding all their own deficiencies [the humility is touching, evocative of uriah heep] and the disastrous policies of economists". the fourth page of the executive summary reads: "Youth unemployment and underemployment increased between 2000 and 2019 but declined during the pandemic years. Youth unemployment increased nearly threefold, from 5.7 per cent in 2000 to 17.5 per cent in 2019 but declined to 12.1 per cent in 2022 and further to 10 per cent in 2023."
ReplyDelete# facetious witticisms aside, where did our diabolical, accursed number '83' come from. 83 percent of india's youth being unemployed. page 90 of our sublime report appears to be the bright light on the road to damascus. Figure 4.10. Share of unemployed educated youths (secondary or higher) in total unemployed persons (UPSS), 2000, 2012, 2019 and 2022 (%).
ReplyDeletefor the year 2000 this was 88.6, declined to 87.1 by 2012, and further by 2022 to 82.9 percent. that is of total unemployed, let us say for every 1,000 unemployed persons, 829 are educated unemployed. the corresponding figure for those who have successfully completed their secondary school [that is excluding 'matric-fail'] the proportion of such persons of the total unemployed was 65.7 percent. to cut to the chase, the conclusion that 83 percent of india's youth is unemployed is an honest error of understanding any of us could have made. for those who revel in being policy wonks, blue stockings, consider LFPR, viz. labour force participation rate. "The LFPR is the proportion of the country’s population actively engaged in the labour market either by working or seeking work. It is an indication of the total supply of labour." "The LFPR in India for individuals aged 15 years and older was 55.2 per cent in 2022, which was lower than the world average of 59.8 per cent (f i g u r e 2 .1). It consistently declined over the past two decades, from 61.6 per cent in 2000 to 50.2 per cent in 2019, before increasing to 55.2 per cent in 2022." data between 2019 and 22 coincided with covid-19 restrictions.