Friday, 6 May 2022

THE BJP IS WINNING ANYWAY, ELECTIONS ARE A SIDESHOW.

   Last week I received a draft petition to the Election Commission of India from a well known writer and activist of civil society about the use of EVMs, with the request to obtain endorsements for it. I forwarded it to about twenty contacts, all well read people, engaged with and concerned about the state of our democracy under the present regime. Only four of them endorsed the memorandum, the others have maintained a strategic silence. And therein lies an unpleasant and disturbing truth- it's time we faced up to it.

  The BJP is winning this game. The official proclamation of the Hindu rashtra may still be some years in the future, but it is taking shape on the ground and will be a fait accompli very soon. The eloquent silence of my sixteen friends is one indication- it is safer to be silent, accept the inevitable, what will be will be.

   The battle for the Hindu rashtra has to be won in the minds of the people first before it can be legitimised in Parliament or in the courts. This requires a three pronged strategy : enlist support for the cause, discourage any opposition to it, and create conditions on the ground for a majoritarian state when its time comes. And this is to be done regardless of election results; if the BJP wins the elections (which it generally does) that is a bonus. If it doesn't, it will still have laid a platform for the kind of India that other parties will find difficult to oppose. The BJP is going about this job with its usual careful planning and ruthless execution, while other parties are still floundering in a morass of competing egos and power point presentations.

  For a Hindu rashtra to be born it is imperative that a large section of the 80% of the population be convinced that minorities, especially the Muslims, are the anti-national " Other" and need to be shown their place. This is being done through a blend of legislative measures and lumpen elements. Triple Talaq, Hijab and beef bans, CAA (Citizen Amendment Act)  NRC (National Register of Citizens) and UCC (Uniform Civil Code) belong to the first group. To the second belong the shobha yatras, provocative sloganeering outside mosques, bulldozers, dharm sansads and the in-your-face Hanuman Chalisaa. The violent reactions to this relentless persecution, provocation and sloganeering are exactly what the BJP wants for they further demonise the other community in the minds of the Hindus and reaffirm the necessity for a "safe" nation for the Hindus. The idea is to generate a fear (if not hate) psychosis, which is fertile ground for planting the seeds of division, and so far at least the BJP has been successful at this. With each Jehangirpuri, Khargone or Jodhpur the impending harvest looks more promising.

   The BJP appears to have been quite successful in  enlisting support for its perverted weltanschauung. Bearing testimony to this are the daily hate messages on one's Whatapp, the nature and tenor of media reporting, groups of retired govt. officials (like the Concerned Citizens Group) quick to take on any other group which has the temerity to be critical of the regime, members of Big Capital who benefit from the fact that cronyism is the obverse side of communalism, the daily defections from other parties to the BJP, the stupendous contributions to the Electoral bonds, the victory in all eight seats in Lakhimpur Kheri. Most approve of the BJP's communal and majoritarian vision of the country, the others are either silent or tagging along for the ride on the gravy train. Either way, the support is growing.

   Any opposition to this grand plan is ruthlessly crushed, by the state police in BJP ruled states and by central agencies in others. A Jignesh Mavani will be arrested and hauled 2500 miles to another state, an Aakar Patel or Rana Ayub will be prevented from going abroad, inconvenient TV stations and Youtube channels will be shut down, NGOs will be deregistered, teachers will be sacked for teaching the "wrong" lesson, houses and shops will be bulldozed if you resist the march to the promised land. It is not without reason that our Prime Minister has not entertained a single press conference in his own country in eight years, or that he refuses to take questions at press conferences abroad. It is also not without reason that the latest Press Freedom Index shows that India has further slipped eight places to 150th rank out of 180 countries. But all this is small change for big bucks.

   For the inescapable truth is that the country is steadily moving in the direction the BJP and RSS want it to, a fatigue is setting in among the minorities and the remnant who still espouse liberal values; even the Opposition is casting itself in the new mould. A Nitish Kumar has betrayed every principle he grew up with, so long as he can remain Chief Minister ( and maybe become President, if his current posturing is any thing to go by). A Naveen Patnaik will continue to prevaricate, refuse to take a stand and support the government in Parliament. As will a YSR or a KCR, so long as they can continue in power in their own states, ignoring the erosion of federalism, the imposition of Hindi and the misuse of central agencies, all of which are steadily cutting away the ground under their feet.

  Arvind Kejriwal is perhaps the most unethical, duplicitous and opportunistic of the lot: while giving anti- Modi bytes in public, he has abandoned the minorities, has refused to be counted on Shaheen Bagh, the farmers' protests, the NE Delhi riots and Jehangirpuri. In fact, on this last incident, he has out Heroded even the BJP- blaming it all on the Rohingyas and Bangladeshis, which is precisely the right wing narrative. He will soon discover, to the country's cost, that one can't run with the hare and hunt with the hounds for ever. By not working with the other opposition parties and insisting on ploughing a lonely furrow to the holy grail of the Prime Minister's chair, he will have ceded even more ground to the BJP in the not-so-long run.

   What is perhaps most egregious and alarming is the haste with which other states and parties are adopting the BJP's tool-kit: vigilante violence in West Bengal, imposition of untenable sedition charges against the Rana couple in Maharashtra, the use of Punjab police by Kejriwal to hound Kumar Vishwas and Alka Lamba in Delhi, the use of bulldozers in Alwar in Rajasthan. These are the precise forms of misgovernance the Opposition is supposed to be fighting against! By emulating them these states and Chief Ministers are providing legitimacy to the BJP's narrative.

  The administrative ground for the coming Hindu rashtra is more or less ready. All institutions, including the so-called constitutional ones, have become compliant and willing partners. The syllabi of educational bodies are being redrafted to exclude Faiz, Mughal history, federalism, secularism, social and economic inequalities, and all subjects which should concern any democratic dispensation. All-India Service rules are being manipulated on a regular basis to suit the purposes of the ruling party at the center, the latest being the reinduction of Shah Faesal into the IAS, three years after he resigned, even though the rules do not permit this. He is perhaps needed for the next gambit in Kashmir. All central enforcement agencies are now we-don't-give -a-damn partisan. It took an Assam Sessions judge to recently warn us that we are becoming a police state. ( The observation was predictably stayed by the Assam High Court). Even the Army appears to be falling in line, as evidenced by the haste with which an Iftaar tweet by the Army's PRO in Jammu was deleted. All these may look like straws in the wind, but it's the Devil's Wind we are talking of here.

   The judiciary, frankly, is a mixed bag or a pig in a poke at best. It has given us some memorable judgments, like the Delhi High court on giving bail to Natasha Narwal and Devangana Kalita under UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act), or the one on Pegasus, or the order which stayed the banning of Media One channel on "security" considerations. But that UAPA judgment has not been followed up for others similarly accused, including the Elgar Parishad detainees; challenges to fundamental anti-democratic laws on Electoral Bonds, reorganisation of Kashmir, Article 370, sedition, powers of the Delhi govt. etc. are still not being heard or decided. Hundred of habeas corpus petitions are not being heard. Bulldozers continue to run riot. No accountability is being fixed or reparations being ordered for proven victims of state brutality and injustice. Instead, as a recent Delhi High Court order in the Umar Khalid case indicates, the judiciary appears to be more concerned about ring-fencing the Prime Minister from any criticism, and frowning on the use of words like "jumla", "krantikari" and  "inquilab" which are part of our daily lexicon. Will the courts now decide the vocabulary for free speech ? It's difficult to assess where the judiciary is headed, but the portents are not encouraging, especially when push will come to shove, as it inevitably will.

    The country is being readied to welcome the Hindu rashtra. The BJP will continue to win elections, and even where it doesn't, it keeps increasing its vote share, as in Bengal. The southern states may baulk at this but they shall soon be brought in line by the liberal use of Delimitation Commissions, Finance Commissions, a reoriented IAS and IPS, Pegasus Two (whatever happened to the report of the SC appointed committee?), smart use of the crores in the Electoral bonds. The goons on the streets will do the rest of the persuading.

   I hope my sixteen silent friends realise how close the flames are to their houses, and that silence does not provide any immunity or safe passage. As the poet Sheikh Ibrahim Zauq asks us :

" Ab to ghabra ke yeh kehte hain ki mar jayenge

  Mar ke bhi chain nahin paya to kidhar jayenge ?"


    

 

  

22 comments:

  1. Gloomy...scary...disturbing....not the happy country we were brought up in...! You're right Avay...the silence is the most dangerous part of this ....a lull before the storm....!! ...and people don't realize...the storm is not going to spare anyone....!!!
    The good part is...most of our generation is on the final lap....! But I sincerely pray for the coming generations.....May they have free space to breath out their thoughts...!!


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  2. Yup; couldn't agree more. Hindu male 74 year-old, brought up all over our country, living in GK-1, saddened.

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  3. Yes, writing is on the wall. Hindu Dharm Khatre mein mantra has got embedded deep into the psyche of the majority of Hindus The proof is the recent UP elections where nothing worked like farmer agitation, Lakhimapur murder, Covid mismanagement, etal Tighten your belts and get ready for welcoming the New India which is a reality.

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  4. Yes, when you rack up the scores, the internal may read thus - demonetisation, GST, the last gasp economy, absurd foreign policies and the jumla- fraud-brazen extractions and legal reversals -manipulations etc = zero. Hindu rashtra in the worst possible way = 100.

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  6. https://subhashcsharma.blogspot.com/2022/05/lament-of-small-man-dearcitizen-inthis.html

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  7. Referring to the Newton’s Third Law gives an answer to the way things are going and will continue to go.
    At this point, a Caveat first: I am not against multi-religious and diverse societies living in peace with each other. I am neither supporting nor opposing any direction the polity takes. Just trying to understand what is behind this phenomenon.
    The issue requires unbiased assessment of the emerging trend.
    Think before you form yet another opinion.
    At the global level, which religion is a majority and which one is minority. Certainly Hindus are minority; at local level within India in many districts Hindus are minority and in at least one state also Hindus are minority – what treatment are they getting? Kashmiri Pandits’ case is the tightest slap across the face of the ‘secularism’. Wherever, Hindus are the second largest majority, they don’t claim that status of being a minority. Is the principle of secularism applied fairly and uniformly across all districts and states of country?
    Now, let us analyze the status at the national level. For vote bank politics by the only party which had a headstart at the time of independence, it simply gave to the second largest religious majority the tag of minority with all the attendant appeasements and sops. The community bit the bullet and blindly voted the party to power. Result – cause of the real minorities suffered and continues to suffer but that political party ruled the country unchallenged for several decades. During this ‘golden vote harvest period’, a good number of people who grew up reading this grand design as true secularism compulsorily view any deviation (or correction) as challenge to the long established ‘principles of secularism’. They cannot be faulted; for the brainwash has really been effective and the most successful strategy till date. Congratulations to the designers of that strategy.
    Having read this design, BJP started highlighting the same invoking Newton’s Third Law. Voila! It works and indeed works pretty well. Now their vote gathering strategy is working overtime on this ‘redesigning’ and ‘course-correction’ with good effect. Reason - many people in this country also had similar findings on the secularism particularly the way this game was (and is) being played for votes and once in power for the notes.
    We did not react then, why should we react now – that is the question the conscience asks each neutral mind.
    Other parties have also discovered the new tool-kit of vote harvest. In the end they are all the same. Unless in power there is no use being in politics – a mantra all follow and which Kejriwal has learnt the fastest.
    One strange but simple suggestion from all such practitioners is – Not comfortable living here? Please relocate yourself to some other place. And when you look at the world map, you are left really wondering where to go which is totally free from all such biases. If you express the dilemma, pat comes the reply – wait here for some more time, we are bringing the Ramrajya at your doorstep.
    Further suggestive questions that come across.
    What is wrong in being a religious country? Hasn’t Bangladesh got better per capita income than India. There is more wealth in Islamic countries than in secular ones. Many countries in the world have declared rule by one majority religion and there are no communal riots there! China is perfectly secular and grows in every sphere - why we can’t be that way. Intellectuals survive and thrive in all these countries. They will do so here too.
    And By The Way, what is the real fear of Hindu Rashtra?
    One thing is now sure that the way secularism has been practiced in this country is seriously challenged and it has to change form to survive. Its application has to be uniform and unbiased at local, regional and national and may be at global level. Not too much to ask.

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    1. Dear MMA, the victory of the Hindutva brigade in 2014 was not owing to an equal and opposite force to the Congress led coalition. It was craftily strategised on the plank of corruption which remains unconfirmed in the records of the judiciary. As well as the lackadaisical approach of the UPA administration to counter the charge . Newton should perhaps not be introduced in the political pugilism of 2014.
      Your other theory of questioning the wrong of a Hindu Rashtra is perhaps better answered by your own examples cited of the countries you admire in your detailed summary. If Bangladesh, China and the Islamic world comprising of Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East are exemplars of a mono religious polity simply because some have GDPs higher than India's, and that they have intellectuals residing there, then that is a rather thin yardstick to gauge a nation's progress by. The essential qualities lacking in these geographies are liberty and freedom. Perhaps you do not attribute much weightage to them. But in the long run these are the bedrock of a nation's prosperity on all fronts, which will intrinsically be destroyed in a uniformly religious geography.

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    2. This essay has evoked so many powerful views and thoughts, excellently conveyed. It allows one the luxury of civil rebuttal. Including the line, "And By The Way, what is the real fear of Hindu Rashtra?" To which I write,
      Dear MMA Sir,
      The fear of Hindu Rashtra stems from the absolutely appalling conduct and speech of persons professing saintliness on the one hand and a vicious hatred born out of their own paranoia on the other.
      It stems from the very highest echelons of political, legislative and executive guardianship of the nation upon whom ordinary and common folk vest faith and trust; to take the nation forward and for a life of peace and harmony. Not for complicity - by silence; by tacit approval of violence and systematised persecution.
      But such is the internecine fear that has fed upon itself for decades, that there is, among far too many of those entrusted, no space but for the obsession of belief that they, ironically, the members of the majority, will be decimated by rampaging hordes of minority communities.
      Insaniyat and humaneness are ten times more powerful for people to follow and be biddable by than underhand conspiracies and clandestine acts of preemptive vengeance. It would change the world for the better were it to be practised. And especially India because, funnily, that is the India the world has followed all these centuries. Despite her poverty; despite the lack of grandiosity.
      But it takes enormous strength and courage to be spiritually thus eveolved.
      And that is why the fear. Illustrated, I regret to add, virtually every day of these last few years. And of course going even farther back. To pogroms and riots and orchestrated strife. Even to the morning of the three bullets to a frail chest. Though in death it did render the Mahatma inviolate.

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  8. I sense despondency in Avay Shukla’s latest presentation.
    His documentations are always feisty, laced with acerbic humour, pinpointing the schisms in the social matrix, followed by the backhanded slaps at those with behaviour invidious and actions insidious. Making us laugh to asphyxiation and draw focus on matters of high societal relevance.
    Why is he resigned this time to what he sees as the inevitable…?

    History has evidenced unfailingly the fall of the mighty and truant. And the mightier they seem, the harder they fall. From our own mythology to the global tyrants, have we not read and seen them all go down in a crash pile when the time comes. And come it ineludibly does as the day follows night. They go ingloriously and history condemns them to the eternal vaults of calumny and perdition.

    Sir, I remember your excellent articles of the recent past directed at the ruling regime and its unchallenged Supremo. How no man is an island, how Bal Narendra should have acquired the requisite education, the ineffaceable disgrace of a one-man-decision lockdown. Your precision of aim is no less than a surgeon’s incision at a gangrenous patch, as is the cauterisation that follows.
    I recall your interview with Karan Thapar where you were the outspoken angry young man who saw little of worth when the top achievers cower to the establishment for self propagation. Your faith in Rahul Gandhi when he made his Hindu versus Hindutva speech indicated your optimism that the Congress would reinvent itself as Opposition to counter the current regime that aspires to shape India into a majoritarian monolith.
    I have held dichotomous views in the past to yours, but never had you appeared surrendered as you do through your latest precis. While it is correct in its recording of recent events and the succeeding fallouts, perhaps what we need from hard hitting, percipient satirists / realists is the injecting of undiminished hope through their writing.

    My unshakeable inference is that India cannot go down the path of mono ethnicity, or mono religiosity, with the machinations of some irrational authoritarians. We have a humongous population which inherently lends itself to diversity. The ratio may be 80:20, but the sheer number of that minority 20 is more than the population of many nations. The 80 that comprise the majority are more multifarious in their mindsets than most in the Abrahamic demography. It is incomprehensible that a Hindu Rashtra can arise within India when other sub-demographics are so vibrant within the country. This dissimilarity will prevail and all perverse efforts to stifle it will fail.

    Perhaps Avay Shukla must not brace for a Hindu Rashtra when there is a plethora of erudite individuals and common people of far lesser talent pushing back at this ideologically bankrupt dispensation. The emancipation of the polity will have to be won by the polity itself, but his skills are needed to buttress and amplify the resistance.

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  9. In this piece Avay Shukla seems really sad & despondent, especially it seems by the et tu Brute like betrayal & unwillingness of his 16 friends to join the good fight. But as someone commented, the common people & others who are still expressing themselves against this imposed monoculture & spread of hate must keep the fight going. And as I've been saying a broad unity of such persons is needed. The judiciary also which is a mixed bag must come out with some stirring judgements upholding secularism and some of us lawyers must work in that direction to facilitate such judgements by the judiciary. We need to come out and show on what side we are

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  10. In this piece Avay Shukla seems really sad & despondent, especially it seems by the et tu Brute like betrayal & unwillingness of his 16 friends to join the good fight. But as someone commented, the common people & others who are still expressing themselves against this imposed monoculture & spread of hate must keep the fight going. And as I've been saying a broad unity of such persons is needed. The judiciary also which is a mixed bag must give some stirring judgements upholding secularism and some of us lawyers must work in that direction to facilitate such judgements by the judiciary. We need to come out and show on what side we are

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  11. Reality staring us in the face and the best thing is to look away. Why? Because you shape your battlefield before you mobilise your poll-force. The BhaJaPa strategised it in that way - they got a team of corporate creatures to achieve a target irrespective of the consequences. They have got half way home. We need to meet them short of home. The target was to BUY India! If you are with these snakes you are bought!

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  12. Ab to ghabra ke yeh kehte hain ki mar jayenge

    Mar ke bhi chain nahin paya to kidhar jayenge ?"

    Indecisiveness led to the downfall of Hamlet.He ,too,tried committing suicide but later on realised that battle has to fought here only. Very scary times ahead!

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  13. Yes there is undoubtedly a sense of inevitability to the evolving situation. I continue to hope though, for two reasons - even at their best the present dispensation has hovered around 30% of the popular vote. If the RSS/BJP combine seem so overwhelming, it is also because of the complete lack of an alternate view. The Congress has long since abandoned the core credentials that helped them rule for six odd decades post independence. This tide will turn - simply because at the core,.as you have pointed out - Hindutva and Hinduism are two different things - and it is not the hindutva mindset that has shaped the culture of the sub-continent. We will be back and stronger. I am sure.

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  14. "Don't blame the BJP. A nation gets the government it deserves." [With apologies to Avay Shukla w.r.t. his blog dated 7th. April]. All the more appropriate for the BJP since the people have elected the party into power at the Centre and in the majority of States, as contradistinct from the IAS.
    As for the petition about EVMs which 14 souls declined to sign, they may genuinely have had no grouse about the system. What's wrong with EVMs anyway? They are stand alone units which can't be hacked remotely, and would entail a massive conspiracy to physically compromise them on a meaningful scale. Every attempt so far to demonstrate that EVMs can be hacked has failed. It's always only the losing parties which have cried foul about them.
    As for the effectiveness of round robin petitions, those signed by a set group of senior retired bureacrats and being sent to Narendra Modi periodically on various issues have become routine and of doubtful impact. One can also not get away from the suspicion that a majority of the signatories would have appended their signatures to them without serious application of mind, to say the least. Far better and impactful if they addressed letters separately to Modi expressing their individual strong views and sentiments. It will also dispel any impression that safety in numbers is being sought through these round robin petitions.

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  15. I can see the question looming on your mind a la Bertolt Brecht," will there be singing in the dark times ? I assure you like Brecht that " there always be singing in the dark times, about the dark times". And there will be conscientious persons like you to do it. To day is Tagore's birthday.It may not be out of place to quote the poet who might have been charged with UAPA by this regime for his views on bigotry and nationalism. " Dharmakarar prachire bojro hano" which roughly translates as " let's raze the prison walls of religion"

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  16. Avay, it was to do with cookies! sorted.....seeing as how it is Gurudev Rabindranath's birth anniversary and Mr. Indrajeet Sen's pithy quote, I thought I could add to it by means of a BBC translation. And so as to not let it rest untended, include a couple of riders by Kunwar Mahendra Singh Bedi and Faiz Mohammed Faiz from the same surprising source - or not so surprising now because BBC Hindi is a pretty major presence...anyway here goes.... From Tagore via BBC:

    "Bharat mein janm ka adhikaar samaan nahi hai. Jateeya vibhinnta tatha parasparic bhed-bhav ke karan Bharat mein uss prakar ki rajneetik ekta ki sthapna karna kathin dikhai deta hai jo kisi bhi Rashtra ke liye bahut avashyak hai....Mera manna hai ki mere deshwasi apne Bharat ko tabhi age la paiyenge jab we apne shikshakon ki uss shiksha ka virodh karenge, ki desh manavta ke adarshon se zyada bada hai".
    And
    Kunwar Mahendra Singh Bedi (pseudonym/ pen / ink name: ‘Sehar’)
    "Hindu se tujhe lena hai zahanat ka kamaal,
    Aur Sikkhon se shujaat, ke na ho jis ki misaal
    Ahle Islam se lena hai ibadat ka jalal
    Aur Isaaiyon se sabr, lagan aur isteqlal
    In anasir ko mohabbat mein milana hoga
    kishware Hind ka insaan banana hoga."
    And finally

    Faiz Mohammad Faiz from: Subah-e-Azadi. via BBC
    "Ye daagh daagh ujjala, Ye shab-gazida sehr
    Wo intezar tha jiska ye wo sehr toh nahi"

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  17. This, unfortunately, is simply not the country folk of our age (I assume Avay to be around the same age as me) were born into. We have changed and the change is dragging us all down into a sewage pit!
    India 2022 = Germany 1934

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