The present government at the centre is in no hurry to meet its grandly proclaimed targets. We have it on the authority of the Prime Minister himself that Acche Din have been deferred by 25 years. This year's union budget is a " hundred years" budget, presumably because it makes little sense for 2022. Minister Piush Goel, at a post budget press conference on the 2nd of this month, announced that this budget " lays the foundation for the future." The BJP has been in power for eight years now and if it is still at the foundation stage this does not engender much hope. Which is why Mr. Modi's Delphic proclamation at Glasgow in December 2021 that India will reach Net Zero emissions by 2070- two full generations from now- is not surprising. It is par for the course. It is based on the premise that since in the long run we are all dead, it does not matter what you promise, provided it is far enough in the future.
Given the disastrous environmental policies being pursued by this govt. there is no way we can achieve Net Zero in this century. Mr. Modi seems to think that it is enough to promote solar power to a level of 350 GW by 2030. While this is necessary, it is not enough by itself without paying attention to other, equally crucial dimensions. Attaining Net Zero involves two broad and parallel strategies- reduction of emissions and sequestering/ capturing the emissions that do take place. This govt. seems to be working only half-heartedly on the first and, worse, completely ignoring the second.
India produced 2.41 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2020 (7% of global emissions) and the target is to reduce this by 1 billion tonnes by 2050 and capture the rest, thus achieving the Net Zero status. It does not appear that we will be able to meet either target if the present policies continue.
To achieve the reduction of 1 billion tonnes it is absolutely imperative that fossil fuels are largely replaced with renewable energy. We will be doing that in percentage terms- the use of coal as part of our energy mix will fall from the present 70-75% to about 40-45%. But the bad news is that in absolute terms the consumption of coal shall GO UP hugely. In an interview to Rajya Sabha TV on 17th December 2021 the Additional Secretary in the Ministry of Coal, Mr. Vinod Tewari, disclosed that coal consumption is projected to almost double by 2030- from the current 930 million tonnes to about 1700 million tonnes. Both domestic production and perhaps imports will go up correspondingly. To supply this demand the govt. will continue to aggressively explore for new coal blocks. And even after 2030 demand for coal shall keep going up; according to Tewari the peaking is expected by 2040-45 only. This does not inspire much hope of meeting the target of 1 billion m.t reduction of emissions by 2050.
But there exists an even greater worry, even if we achieve the 1 billion tonne reduction target : how do we capture the 1.50 billion tonne plus emissions being pumped into the atmosphere every year ? I have not yet seen any signs of a CCS ( Carbon Capture and Sequestration) policy, which is expected to cost about US$400 billion (2.4% of India's GDP) by 2050. The only mechanism we have to do the job, therefore, is the natural, god-given one- our natural forests and eco systems. One hectare of moderately dense forest acts as a carbon sink for 147 tonnes of CO2 , and can continue to do so for a hundred years- if it is not deforested. And that is the crux of the problem- we are ravaging and destroying our forests on an unprecedented scale and destroying for ever their carbon sequestration capacity, which is so vital for meeting our Net Zero targets.
The ISFR ( Indian State of the Forest Reports) will never tell you the truth and continue to conceal the actual facts behind a thicket of dubious methodology, self serving interpretations and internationally rejected values. It continues to claim, year on year, that the country's forest cover is increasing whereas this is not supported by its own figures. Between 2015 and 2021 very dense forests in an area of 31367 sq. kms (3.136 million hectares) degraded into scrub and barren land- a carbon sink capacity loss of 450 million tonnes of CO2. There's more: 9.40 million mature trees have been felled between 2016-20 for various projects- that amounts to a loss of an additional 141 million tonnes CO2 sequestration capacity. I could give more figures but they are not necessary to establish that at this rate of destruction of nature, Net Zero even by 2100 is an impossibility. Instead of increasing our sequestration capacity we are hell bent on reducing it !
Mr. Modi and his government of myopic tradesmen attach no importance to the natural environment and view it only as a resource to be ruthlessly exploited to favour their cronies. The regulatory framework painstakingly constructed over the years in consultation with civil society and environmentalists is being dismantled Act by Act, rule by rule. Rivers are being damned or diverted, Protected Areas are being denotified, highways being built through tiger reserves, centuries old pristine forests being hacked down for mining coal and diamonds, the Himalayas are being gang raped by "developers" and its precious glaciers threatened, the Western Ghats are being denied the protection that at least two expert committees have pleaded for. All relevant legislation- Forest Conservation Act, Wildlife Protection Act, Environment Protection Act, Coastal Zone Regulations, to name a few- have been amended to facilitate this pillaging and carpet bombing of nature.
The very concept of forestry has been changed- from " protection" to " management" and states are being encouraged- "coerced" is perhaps a more accurate term- to accord environmental and forest clearances without proper scrutiny. In pursuit of this unholy haste, as many as 11500 forest approvals have been given between 2014 and 2019, the rate of approval is an unbelievable 99% ! The courts are mute spectators to this carnage. The protests of villagers, tribal communities and indigenous populations and experts are contemptuously ignored. The effects of global warming, climate change and anthropogenic disasters are staring us in the face, but for this govt. "ease of doing business" is the only mantra.
The current policies are failing to address the two main milestones on the Net Zero pathway- absolute reduction in fossil fuel consumption, and sequestration of emissions. We still do not have a national Energy policy, there is no discernible route map to Net Zero status, there is no mention of CCS plans, reports about the status and health of our forests continue to be fudged- all we have to go on is an assurance that all will be well in the new Amrit Kaal. And while we trudge towards this new mirage, time is running out- fast.
At COP 21, as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), India had committed to achieving 40% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil energy sources by 2030. The country has achieved this target in November 2021 itself. The country’s installed Renewable Energy (RE) capacity today stands at 150.05 GW while its nuclear energy based installed electricity capacity stands at 6.78 GW. This brings the total non-fossil based installed energy capacity to 156.83 GW which is 40.1% of the total installed electricity capacity of 390.8 GW In line with the Prime Minister’s announcement at CoP26, the Government is committed to achieving 500 GW of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by the year 2030.
ReplyDeleteI've already said that, Mr. Sahu. But this by itself will not get us to Net Zero. The gains of more renewable energy will be more than nullified by increased coal consumption. And the govt appears to be doing very little about CCS. To the contrary, it is destroying our natural carbon sinks. All departments are working in their own ghettos. What we need perhaps is an over arching Ministry of Climate Change to coordinate efforts and set clear goals. Niti Aayog is a colossal failure and is riding too many horses at the same time to do this job.
ReplyDeleteClaims of reforestation continue to be a myth and a figment of the official imagination.
ReplyDeleteThis is the first blog of yours that deals with ecology and is most welcome.
ReplyDeleteI do wish you would write with equal felicity on wild life and nature conservation instead of solely on political antics of the jokers we have.
For Unknown at 16:54
ReplyDeleteYou are possibly new to my blogsite and may therefore not be aware that I do devote a lot of time and space to blogs on environmental issues. I have not counted them, but they should number about 40-50 in the last five years or so. But you're otherwise right, friend: this critical sector needs more of everybody's attention. Appreciate your concern and reminder.
Its about time somebody called a spade a bloody spade and Mr Shukla has done it forthrightly and forcefully. This government's record of environmental neglect and mismanagement and fudging data about forests etc. etc. is reaching new heights in governance chicanery and failure in contemporary history, which they would certainly want to re-write sooner than later as the multi dimensional impacts of climate change continue to batter our economy and future with fiercer momentum. It is perplexing that the FSI with all its latest satellite imagery and what not, is so very quiet on the colossal scale of encroachment taken place and taking place in ALL our forests including wildlife areas? For the state governments this is a reality they rather not acknowledge while the courts seem to be happy with token tinkering with the encroachment time bomb. All the bombast of net zero emissions right now is a non issue in the face of the immediate and imminent ecological disaster we are sitting on. By 2050, the global environment story could well be completely devastatingly different from anything being conjured up now. We need statesmen to figure that out. Alas there are none among the pygmy politicians that rule the roost!
ReplyDeleteThe "Panchamrit" - 5 ambrosial promises made by the Prime Minister at CoP 26 - are highly unlikely to be met in the timeline assured, particularly on the reduction of fossil fuels as energy sources.
ReplyDeleteWe in India have an intrinsic belief that we are not the co-creators of global climate disturbance. While this was true till the last two decades, we have now became a significant emanator of pollutants. It must be remembered that what happens as a consequence, affects us before it does the developed world, with our level of vulnerability being far higher than theirs.
The article well encapsulates the perils of climate change. The marauding of our forests is poignantly illustrated to reveal how the natural basins that cage CO2 emissions are being destroyed. Primarily one notices the heartbreak of a concerned individual when Nature - that he holds so dear - is made the victim of rapacious politics, unbridled avarice and acutely myopic vision.
Well said Avay Shukla.
"and his government of myopic tradesmen" such an apt description.
ReplyDeleteThank you for pointing out the current efforts towards breaching the embankments provided by the series of legal and policy infrastructure to 'nature' in India. With this attitude, we are surely heading for the ecological disaster, which various COPs has rightly highlighted.
ReplyDeleteI would like to add two crucial points, how this is going to effect already dilapidated environment governance: first, everything happening would only create a 'inertia' away from conservation and towards 'commodification' of nature, disrespecting not only various religious sentiments but also undermining relationship between indigenous cultures to its natural counterpart in India (which give us an worldview of possible 'harmony' with nature - that CBD envision by 2050). It will only lead to more clashes between local communities and state 'hardened' with this inertia.
Second, rather than building capacity for 'holism' and 'sustainable' ways of living, it seems the present government is misguided in its interpretation of 'sustainable development'. I can see this mentality more and more in the state, thus resulting in more violent clashes with communities across India. Acting like new colonizers, having been handed the responsibility by Britishers. There is no plurality based lens to look about environment governance. No idea and value for 'village commons'; lacking institutionalized means and *framework* to understand 'participatory' decision making and its multiple benefits (like trust building). Ability to recognize and appreciate various knowledge systems.
Lastly, regarding net zero and CCS: IEA, in its report last year, suggested its expectation for substantial impact from CCS only by 2050. Without any current intention of carbon pricing mechanism (which currently in some or other form is present in about one-fifth of the world), it seems highly unlikely that such a immature technology like CCS would make any substantial impact for our net zero commitment until 2050.
There can be no Net Zero without CCS for any country in the world. The atmosphere already contains about 800 billion tonnes of CO2 ( we add about 35 b.t. every year to it) and this has to be " scrubbed" out if CO2 levels have to drop. More afforestation could do part of this only, as there just isn't enough land available to absorb it all. Storing CO2 underground is being tried out, as are other mechanical methods. India too needs to do its bit, but it must begin the process by stopping the wanton destruction of its forests.
ReplyDeleteThere are many excuses for not doing but there is only one “yes” for accomplishing.Sustainable development concept Norway 1972 ,MDCs 2000 ,Kyoto protocol,Paris Agreement and COP after COP now entered into Gelasgo Uk 2021 end with the tremendous increase in GHGs with a red carpet for extreme events.There come the SDGs with 17 Targets and 169 goals for Poverty eradication,a world free from hunger ,inclusive quality education,ecosystem restoration,climate justice.equity etc etc . Signatories to summits are many but how many practically and strictly follow the National determined reduction in GHGs level??
ReplyDeleteSir, while your points make complete sense, do shed some light in future articles as to what can we as youngsters can do to make sure India does not follow the path you believe we are taking. While voting out the government might be your suggestion, the corruption involved in forest clearences at the bureaucratic level also needs honest men who are willing to stand against the system. So as concerned individuals what is it that we can do to avert this danger !
ReplyDeleteIngress Prime
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