DOG-WALKERS AND THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT
Sometime
back the Union Minister for Labour and Employment, Shobha Karandjale, blamed
the spread of education in the country for the high unemployment rate: we have far too many graduates, she added, in case you missed it the first time. This
immediately caused a huge uproar on social media and various liberal groups,
with someone even suggesting that we should now have an UNEDUCATION policy.
Come to think of it, however, she was not far off the truth.
In India, everyone who cannot migrate illegally to Trumpland wants to become a graduate:
the country produces ten million grads every year, most of whom (according to
India Inc.) are unemployable. This is further borne out by a recent report that of 263 applicants (all lawyers and civil judges) who appeared for an exam for the post of
District judges in Odisha, not one passed the qualifying test! Adding to the
problem is that there are just not enough new jobs being created every year,
even if we accept the govt’s cooked-up figures. Which is why, according
to the ILO Report (2024) the rate of unemployment among graduates is ten times
that of the uneducated: in India, the more educated you are the lesser the chances of your finding a job!
We refuse to accept the laws of either economics or mathematics, everyone wants a job as a babu in an office (hence the need to be a graduate), hands-on skills are looked down as undignified “labour”: the “knowledge worker” is placed high above the “skill worker.” Even though, while the former spend their days idling at home or attending political rallies, it is almost impossible to get hold of one of the latter when you need one- an electrician, carpenter, plumber, para-medic, driver, to mention just a few. Our cook, a smart young girl who chose to drop out after Plus Two and earn a respectable living rather than go to college and join the ranks of the unemployed, comes for two hours every day and charges Rs. 8000 per month. She works in four to five houses and makes Rs. 30000 to Rs. 40000 per month, something which even IIT grads are happy to receive these days! A mason in my village charges Rs. 1000 per day, if you can get hold of one, that is!
And things are about to get much worse for the grads and white collar workers with the advent of AI. The founder of Atomberg, Arindam Paul, predicts that 50-60 percent of white collar jobs could be lost to AI in the coming years in India and there would be no middle- class left. The infotech and hitech firms have already fired tens of thousands of their employees as a precursor to a much bigger bloodbath : the knowledge worker can be easily replaced by AI, whether he or she is a doctor, engineer, coder, data analyst, copy writer, advertising executive etc. AI softwares like Grok are making even doctors redundant. The skill or blue collar worker, on the other hand, is irreplaceable, whether on the factory floor, a mechanic's shop, your flat or selling momos on the street. These are the jobs and professions which will survive, as evidenced by the the innovative start-ups being launched every day. We have arrived in the era of innovative and niche-based job creations, and those who possess the entrepreneurial spirit of exploring these options will be the winners. My housing society now provides well paying occupations which were unheard of even a decade ago- Dog Walkers (Rs.4000/ per house X 5 houses a day), Dog Groomers (Rs. 1000-1500 per doggie, almost the same Neerja pays for her monthly visits to Barbara's or Trois Ne), the Pigeon Net maker (Rs. 12000 for three balconies), and so on.
The smart guy will ferret out where demand for a product or service exists-and provide it, just like Swiggy, Amazon and Blinkit have done on a much larger scale.I came across a couple of unlikely occupations during the course of my readings, which I must share to prove how the job market is changing:
Sumadi Ibrahim served for 22 years as a Navy diver in Malaysia; since his retirement 10 years ago he has carved out a most unusual niche for himself: he retrieves lost golf balls from the water hazards of golf courses outside Kuala Lumpur. He works three days a week, collects about 500 balls, and sells them to the same guys who lost them! He makes RM 8000 ringgit each month ( Rs. 1.60 lakhs), which is three times what a worker in the formal sector gets. Jim Best, an ex US Navy frogman, does the same on the Florida golf courses: he estimates that there are 70000 golf balls waiting to be found- a small fortune for entrepreneurs like him!
Demand has created a new breed of workers in China- "pei pas" or "climbing buddies", fit and athletic young men who assist outdoor tourists and enthusiasts in climbing or trekking up mountains, acting as guides and providing logistical and physical support. With millions of tourists opting for outdoor adventure, demand is booming. A climbing buddy charges between USD 50-70 per trip and can make upto USD 2000-3000 per month, far more than the average monthly wage for office workers. Good looking buddies can demand a higher price from single ladies or ladies' groups!
Another new class of professionals has now emerged- consulting declutterers. The inter-generational passing down of possessions- furniture, cluttery, mementos, clothes, books, photos- has become an issue: the younger generation now has smaller flats, believes in minimalist life styles, moves from place to place, and has no desire to clutter their lives. The "handing-down" older generation, on the other hand, values much of this stuff as family heirlooms and would like them to be retained for pure sentimental reasons. How to balance the two desires/needs? Enter the professional declutterer (at USD 125 per hour), who will talk to everyone, assess their emotional and physical needs, put a price on the items, advise on their disposal. He/ she is both a valuer and a psychological consultant.
As lifestyles change, as technology alters the way we once lived, and as new needs emerge, new areas for jobs are being created to replace the traditional white collar office jobs. Those who are innovative, possess unconventional skills and dare to be different are the ones who will prosper. As the Florida frogman told a reporter: " There's a job somewhere for everyone." He may as well have added: "Provided they're willing to shed their white collars."
19.03.2025
thanks!
ReplyDeleteVery timely and spot on, Avay. Thanks
ReplyDeleteHave humans birthed a Frankenstein in the faceless, invisible form of AI, one who gobbles jobs three square meals a day, yet stays insatiable? What was a phantasmagorical concept not too long ago, has materialised, and its human creators are now seen scurrying to stay relevant - a.k.a. employed.
ReplyDeleteDespite the mounting layoffs, the wizards of IT and AI seem blasé to its deepening perils, offering glib soothers like “new employment will replace current job-losses". Or, “this is just a recalibration of employment".
But in a world of geo-political stress, where nations are looking inward and citizens retreating further, the onslaught on people’s jobs due to AI augmentation can only accentuate the irreversible.
As for the inevitable: a human lies inside a driverless Tesla coffin and hammers the proverbial last nail from within, as the coffin self-navigates into the grave. Those preferring cremation can roll themselves into sensor-driven incinerators that auto-flare and turn wishes to ashes - algorithmically.
Do the undertakers feel redundant?
A reverse employment is visualised by one astute observer, who predicts Receptionists to stay permanently employed and answer the phone: “Hello, I’m a human, and which Chatbot would you like to talk to?”!
One wonders if Avay Shukla will outsource his weekly blogs to Grok or Chatgpt, or even to DeepSeek, which can pen deftly for him while he focuses his creativity on the print publications that have caught his fancy - and priority - of late.
Now, that's a very disturbing possibility you've thrown up, Mr. Patankar- I mean, about outsourcing my blogs to Chat GPT or Grok! Do I now begin my blogs with a disclaimer that they have actually been penned by a human-i.e.me- and not by a bot? And will folks believe it?
ReplyDeleteBrilliant piece. Incisive, drilling deep into the realities we face in everyday life - the banal and the commonplace - yet few adroitly put it across so well. The inferences observed (or read across books or elsewhere) aren't fanciful but harsh realities. Apart from the sweep of events/subjects touched upon (and whispers in our ears!) to wake us to the trajectory that looms before us. Not to forget the pellucid exposition and subtle parsing of English prose. Thanks, Mr Shukla, for the weekly offerings of an unstinting host!
ReplyDeleteFolks will believe you as long as you prioritise VFGK over print publications. If you leave it like a 15 year old waif on the Shimla - Chandigarh highway to shift your sights elsewhere with increased affinity, then your credibility, I'm afraid, diminishes on your own blog.
ReplyDeleteWhy not select from your past works and hand them to these print fellows upon invitation. That way your authenticity and earnestness stay unblemished on VFGK, and when the print media releases your works, you get the increased readership every writer desires. To mothball one's own creation for the lure of adding eyeballs is - to say the least - a bally strategy.
You can ask Grok, or Chatgpt.
Mr. Shukla: Your two writes up on "Wealth Gap" and "Future of Employment" nails it absolutely. What I would like to add (which you may be already very cognizant off) is that this is a global issue from USA to Europe to Asia. The variance is that in USA, there is huge shortage of college graduates with an ability to adapt to a tech integrated job opportunities and in India we have a lot of graduates without the knowledge or the cultural flexibility to adapt to skill-based jobs. This is a truly oceanic in proportion in the scale of the problem but there are also some droplets of solutions starting to tackle the problem. I have started work on this problem back in 2014 and have a true School-College-Career pathway model that we implementing in partnership with Texas Workforce Commission (www.accessforsuccess.net) and also in Andhra Pradesh under the leadership of Chandra Babu Naidu, CM's 4P (Public, Private, People Partnership)to create 20 Lack jobs (www.acclaimglobal.net). The significant barrier in India is the parent's reluctance to allow their children to take the non-conventional career pathways due to perceived social stigma. But with role modeling and culturally adaptive solutions at the local (taluq, district) and regional (state) levels, I expect solutions to start addresssing this problem. The fundamental challenge to this is absolutely lack of funding for any creative solutions, so one has to build it first with independent funding (which I did), following which the state (if the right folks) education, college and employers pay attention in a coordination manner. Its not easy, but doable. Thanks for bringing your spotlight to a true economic, social challenge.
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ReplyDeleteNew job opportunities like lost -golf- ball retrievers, declutterers etc may pay good salaries ,but will they fetch brides for the unmarried graduate in a society where both girls and their parents seek babus with permanent jobs .
An excellent piece, as usual.
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