THE SKY CANNOT BE THE LIMIT.

[ This piece was published in THE WIRE on 4.9.2019, with slight editing, under the title: THE AVIATION SECTOR'S RAMPANT GROWTH MUST BE REINED IN.]

                                    THE  SKY  CANNOT  BE  THE  LIMIT.

   It’s just not working. The sixth Global Environment Outlook ( GEO6) report released on 13.3.2019 warns that even if countries achieve the nationally determined contributions ( NDCs) under the Paris accord 2015- which they are far from doing- this will be just a third of the mitigation needed to restrict rise of global temperatures to 1.5-2.0 degress celsius by 2100. In fact, it has stated that this limit will be reached by the middle of this century and is likely to reach 2.7 to 3.0 by 2100. To prevent this  emissions have to drop by 40%-70% globally by 2050, and to net zero by 2070. Instead, they went UP by 3% in 2017. We are staring at environmental Acopalypse.

   The problem is simple: the world, especially the developed countries, simply has to change its lifestyle, its reckless consumption patterns, move to a more simple and sustainable way of living. It has to waste less food and water, travel more sensibly, reduce its ever increasing dependence on power guzzling technology to make life more easy going and convenient, shop less, use recycled materials rather than plunder more from nature. It has to shift from consumption to “ nonsumption” and accept “minimalism” as the biggest NDC of all. One area of human activity which could do with more attention on this score is aviation, which poses a looming threat that most people are not even aware of.

   The global aviation sector accounts for 3.5% of total emissions, and in absolute terms the figure is expected to reach 1.250 billion tonnes by 2030 because of its continued dependence on fossil fuels. It has been allowed to grow like an unchecked carcinoma because it has been excluded from any restrictions under the Kyoto protocol; it is growing at 7.5% per annum ( the figure for India is 17%); the total number of flyers in 2017 was 4.1 billion- in other words, every second person in the world is a flyer!  There are 42000 commercial flights a day in the USA, 34000 in Europe. If this did not cause enough pollution, the uber rich add more than their fair share by the indiscriminate use of private jets: according to the website airliners.net there are between 25000 and 30000 private aircraft globally. The future projections are even more worrying: according to a study by Boeing 39600 additional aircraft shall be required by 2038, doubling the current number. The number of flyers shall grow to 7.8 billion. Just recently there was widespread criticism when the BBC revealed that 1500 private jets were used to ferry world leaders to Davos in January 2019.

   It’s not just emissions that concern us here; more flyers mean more airports, more runways, for which thousands of additional hectares of land has to be acquired. This land has to be denuded of all green cover, right next to urban centres which need trees most; thousands of families are displaced and fertile agricultural land is concretised with serious implications for recharging of ground water. ( The Civil Aviation Ministry in India has just announced the construction of 20 more airports). Acquisition of 5000 hectares of prime agricultural land has already commenced for Delhi’s second airport at Jewar in neighbouring UP; hundreds of farmers will be displaced. 4500 acres of priceless wetlands ( including 70 acres of mangroves) will be devastated for Mumbai’s new airport which is coming up in total violation of all CRZ rules. This can only accentuate Mumbai’s annual flooding woes and destroy the habitat of at least 250 identified bird species.Separate terminals and even private airports are being built for the rich and their jets. How long can this wanton decimation of nature continue ?

   This cancerous growth of a sector that caters essentially to the rich at the cost of the poor has to stop. Mitigation measures will not work- a recent report of the US Govt. Accountability Office( the counterpart of our own CAG) has stated that measures such as technical innovations in air-frames/engines, improvement in fuels, mandatory emission reduction targets or even tax on emissions will be insufficient to curb the expansion of the aviation sector. Governments all over the world have to find more draconian and innovative policies to rein in this monster.

   They should stop building more runways and airports, and if they do not, then residents of the areas effected should oppose them. This shall automatically restrict the number of flights. (A struggle has been going on for the last ten years to approve a third runway for Heathrow, with Londoners opposing it tooth and nail.) Railway systems should be upgraded to offer an alternative almost as fast but less expensive. In this context the plan to introduce 160 super-fast trains in India over the next two years is a welcome step, but the identification of the routes should not become populist: the emphasis should be to connect metros and routes where there is maximum air traffic. A single train can obviate the need for at least six wide bodied aircraft. Rail tickets should be subsidised: after all, if the govt. can spend tens of thousands of crores on constructing and maintaining airports, it should not balk at this incentive. A heavy carbon tax should be imposed on all air tickets to bring down demand; this would also recoup the subsidy on rail tickets. Private aircraft should be banned altogether: why should someone be allowed to pollute the air just because he has the money? The natural environment is a common heritage and everyone has just one share in it, it is not a corporate entity in which the rich can be allowed to have a “controlling interest”.

   A global pushback against rampant expansion of this sector has begun. There was a public outrage when the BBC revealed that 1500 private jets were used to ferry corporate honchos to this year’s Davos summit, with demands that they should use commercial flights instead. Megan Markel, the Duchess of Essex, had to face widespread criticism when she too flew the Atlantic in a private jet in February to attend a baby shower in New York. Even more interesting, BBC has reported that an environment group in Sweden has launched a campaign to persuade people not to take a flight in 2019; their target is to obtain 100,000 pledges this year: by March they had obtained 10000 pledges. They make a very important point: governments cannot do everything- citizens themselves have to exercise choices that are in the best interests of the planet and themselves. For, as the poet Mahmoud Darwish lamented:

“ Where should we go after the last frontiers?

   Where should the birds fly after the last sky?”