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Friday, 15 December 2023
"DUST TO DUST, ASHES TO ASHES" IS NO LONGER SUSTAINABLE
Friday, 8 December 2023
IS THE FIRST- TIME VOTER THE X FACTOR IN BJP'S VICTORIES ?
It's not unusual to do a post-mortem after a massacre, and so the forensics have begun after the electoral carnage of the 3rd of December. The hindsight morticians, of all hues, have started their analysis of what went wrong with the opposition carcasses littering the battlefield in five states: EVMs, caste, Hindutva, "panauti" barbs, tribals, in-fighting, corruption, electoral bonds-it's an endless list which shall keep the pundits occupied till it's time for the next blood- letting in May next year. Not one to be discouraged by my lack of expertise in this field, however, I would like to add my two bits to the autopsy.
Not much attention has been paid so far on the impact of the behaviour/ preferences of the first-time voter (FTV) on electoral outcomes since 2019. This is surprising given their increasing numbers. According to available figures there were 80 million (8 crore) FTVs in 2019, and the estimates for 2024 are 150 million, or 15 crores ( NEWS18 report dated 31.8.23, based on ECI estimates). That is an almost twofold increase between two elections. Even if we discount the 2024 estimates by 25%, even then FTVs will form a sizeable proportion of total voters.
FTVs comprise between 10% and 15% of the total electorate, perhaps more than most castes or religious denominations. They constitute a separate and distinct cohort, with their own problems, aspirations, preferences and mental make-up. You would expect that all major political parties would be aware of this, and that they would cater to them specifically in their manifestos, as they do for all other electorally significant blocs. Especially as available data shows that FTVs have a significant influence and impact on election results.
A 2014 analysis by IndiaSpend had concluded that this youthful segment had catapulted the BJP to power in the five states with the highest proportion of young voters. Below is a table indicating the five states which had added the most number of FTVs between 2014 and 2018, and the number of Lok Sabha seats in each:
STATE FTV ADDED (IN LAKHS) LOK SABHA SEATS
Bihar 61.33 40
WBengal 55.02 42
Rajasthan 43.45 25
Maharashtra 41.70 48
U.P. 39.74 80
TOTAL 241.26 235
It is significant to note that this accounts for about 43% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha.
Consider now another set of statistics. In the just concluded elections to five states (where the BJP won three by sizeable margins), the vote share of the BJP has actually increased substantially over the 2018 figures: Rajasthan by 3.69%, Madhya Pradesh by 7.66%, and Chattisgarh by 13.37%; even in Telangana (which it lost) its vote share has gone up by 9%. This is a psephological puzzle because the general consensus is that Modi's brand equity is no longer as strong as it was in 2018-19, that the appeal of Hindutva has peaked, and that economic issues such as price rise and unemployment have begun to bite. What then is the generic explanation for the party's phenomenal rise in vote share in 2023?
There is a distinct possibility that the answer could lie in the hitherto ignored First Time Voter. In an interesting article, The Seven Sins of New India by K. Jayakumar, published in The New Indian Express on the 25th of November this year, postulates that the young generation of today (read FTV), "with no exposure to an earlier ethos of public life, begins to believe that what it sees today is normal." And what this generation sees today is listed out by Jayakumar as the "seven sins of new India." These are: Inequality before the law, vindictive vehemence, intolerance to criticism, corruption, doublespeak, window dressing, and the baggage of secularism. These seven sins comprise the new normal and have changed the idiom of public life and polity completely.
I find this a fascinating thesis, one which makes eminent sense. Just step back and consider- the FTV of today was only eight years old in 2014, he was thirteen in 2019. These are impressionable ages, the crucible when values, behaviour, beliefs and prejudices are formed. This generation has grown up in the Modi years and has seen nothing but the seven deadly sins in operation, carpet bombed by media and party propaganda to believe in this right wing ideology and that Modi is the Vishwaguru. They are creatures of this new toxic environment, and their value systems can only align with this new reality, having experienced no other one. I, for one, therefore would be very surprised if they did not vote for the BJP in elections, almost as a bloc. This thesis brings together all the anecdotal data and statistics mentioned above, and may go some way in explaining the BJP's continued appeal and the increase in its vote share. The FTV may not be the only explanation but it certainly merits a serious look. And the beauty of this phenomenon is that with each incremental year of this regime, their numbers will keep increasing by a few millions, providing the BJP an ever increasing constituency of programmed supporters. There can be no worse news for the Opposition.
I may be wrong (I usually am in such matters), but can the Opposition continue to ignore the First Time Voter? He/she may be their ticket to ride.
Friday, 1 December 2023
CHAR DHAM OF THE GREAT HIMALAYAN NATIONAL PARK [4]- THE PARBATI RIVER
CHAR DHAM OF
THE GREAT HIMALAYAN NATIONAL PARK [4]
THE PARBATI
RIVER—DAUGHTER OF MANTALAI
[The river Parbati, just above Kasol. Photo by author]
The Parbati is the best known and biggest of the four GHNP rivers, meeting the Beas at Bhunter, just below Kullu. It is the only one that does not originate from a glacier- its womb is the huge, forbidding Mantalai lake at 14000 feet, at the foot of the Pin Parbat pass which divides the Spiti and Kullu valleys. The Parbati valley, one of the two best known valleys in the state (along with the Sangla valley in Kinnaur), is totally uninhabited for most of its length and is shrouded in mystery, myth and wonder; a number of trekkers have disappeared in its remote fastness, never to be heard of again. At the foot of the 120 km long valley are the small settlements of Kasol and Manikaran, hubs for both drug and religious tourism (Manikaran has the famous hot springs and Gurudwara), attracting thousands of tourists, including from Israel and Russia. These, however, are add-on aberrations introduced by man, the real Parbati valley upstream of these urbanised scars is quite different, a natural Eden of resplendent vegetation, wildlife, perennial streams and high mountains.
[ An unforgettable view of the Parbati valley vegetation. Photo by author]
The trek to Mantalai takes three to four days and begins at
Gwacha, about 15 kms beyond Manikaran where the Tosh Nullah joins the river.
The track winds upwards, past Pulga ( there is an Italian pizzeria here!),
Nagthan (the last village), Rudranag (so named because of a waterfall shaped
like a serpent below which the god Ganesh is believed to have meditated), Ishidwara,
which actually had a restaurant run by an intrepid Sharmaji from Palampur when
we went up there- I fondly hope he’s still there! Ten kms later is the famous
Kheer Ganga (2900 m.), the USP of which is a pool fed by a hot water spring, once pristine and unsullied but now
overrun with dhabas and serais. Fortunately, the debasing tentacle of tourism
ends here, and beyond is the realm of the gujjar, gaddi and the brown bear. One
can camp here for the first night or move up another five kms to Mandron on the
left bank of the river. We camped at the latter spot and met a gujjar, Lal Hussain, who had made his semi-permanent camp
here, along with his four wives, 25 buffaloes and a hidden hoard about which he
would tell us nothing! He is the last of a disappearing breed of hardy
pastoralists, threatened by reduced ranges for their cattle, the inroads of
development and a new generation which craves the smart phone, TV and an urban
lifestyle.
[Hot water pool at Kheer Ganga. Photo by author]
The first hair-raising experience is encountered on the
second day at Nichidwar- crossing the river on a wire basket suspended over the
waters on a cable and pulled by ropes to the other side! Definitely not for the
faint hearted. About six kms further on a deep gorge meets the Parbati on its
right bank: this is Dibbi Bokri and attached to it is a fascinating tale of an
Englishman who discovered emeralds in the gorge, killed off his gorkha labourers one
night and disappeared with the jewels, never to be heard of again! In the late nineties the
NHPC had proposed to build a huge dam below Dibbi Bokri to impound the waters
of the Parbati and generate 800 MW of power- Phase I of the Parbati project. This would
have been an environmental disaster of unimaginable proportions; fortunately,
it was refused environmental clearance. There were apprehensions that at some
later date the idea would be revived, but in 2010 the HP govt. has notified the
entire area above Pulga right up to the base of the Pin Parbat as a National
Park- the Kheer Ganga NP- so hopefully this lovely landscape has been saved for
posterity.
By the evening of the second day, after having covered 25
kms, one reaches Pandupul ( 3700 m.), where the river has to be crossed once
again to the right bank. But this time over one immense , monolithic boulder
the size of a house which straddles the river which is a gushing torrent about
ten meters wide at this point. Legend has it that the huge boulder was put
there by Bhim when the Pandavas came here during their exile, hence the name of
the place. We silently thanked that brave warrior, for having spared us another
wire basket crossing!
[The massive boulder straddling the river at Pandupul. Photo by author]
The third day’s trek is a gentle, 16 km walk up the valley which at this point is about one km. wide, with the adolescent Parbati happily gurgling down its left side. One ambles through a thickly carpeted pasture, knee deep in multi- hued flowers, flanked on both sides by towering snow covered peaks from which tumble small streams, impatient to join the Parbati on its way down to the Beas, criss-crossing the pasture. After about 14 km the valley widens out quite a bit and the river now distributes itself into a score of water courses, almost like a delta. Negotiating them is no problem and after another kilometre or so one is confronted with a huge rockfall, 100 meters high, which blocks the valley. This is the appropriately named Shahidwar; the Parbati has carved out a passage for itself on the right but we had to clamber over the mound of rocks. Cresting it, we came face to face with the magnificent Mantalai lake, the womb from which the Parbati takes birth.[The infant Parbati exiting the Mantalai lake. Photo by author]
The landscape here, at 4100 meters, is awesome. The lake is huge, nestled in an elliptical basin about two kms long and half a km wide, in a south-east/north-west alignment. It is a pure glacial lake, completely enclosed by towering mountains from whose glaciers and snowfields innumerable streams and run-offs feed the lake. Little mounds of rocks, called "jognis", are scattered all around on its banks- these are sacred spots where the locals come to pray and plant colourful flags; we did so too: in these rugged regions it is better to have the gods on your side! There is only one small opening on the north-west side, though which the infant Parbati gleefully escapes from its forbidding cradle in a frothing gush of water. The landscape is majestic and hypnotic but Mantalai is not a pretty lake like Khajjiar, or scenic like Chandratal, or gentle like Renuka. Mantalai is, instead, imperious in its grandeur, confident in its silence and arrogant in its ruggedness. It commands respect, not love. Beyond it, another two days of hard and dangerous trekking and 1500 meters higher up, is the Pin Parbat pass, and beyond that the Pin Valley National Park. This is the realm of the wind, ice and snow and the primeval forces of creation rule here. Man is an intruder here who the gods tolerate when they are well inclined, and who perishes if they are not so minded. He should pass through with reverence, his head bowed in humble respect. May it be so for eternity.
[The sacred "jognis" on the shores of the Mantalai lake. Photo by author]
Friday, 24 November 2023
THE SIZE OF THE FIGHT IN THE DOG
Friday, 17 November 2023
STOOPING TO CONQUER OR FLATTERING TO DECEIVE ?
If you've been a keen observer of public discourse in India, as I have been for some years now, you are probably immune to the bizarre and outlandish statements made by the worthies holding public office. Like the Scowling Sherpa's revelation that "there is too much democracy" in India, or a Minister in Davos claiming that high unemployment is indicative of increasing self employment, or the Supreme Leader's assertion that not one inch of Indian land has been occupied by the Chinese, or a Minister for Human Resources in NDA I debunking Darwin's theory by maintaining that none of his ancestors ever saw an ape turning into a homo sapiens. We are, of course, the swine who should be grateful for such pearls of wisdom, but two recent pearls, cultured in our very own fascist laboratory, have taken even my post-Diwali asthmatic breath away.
Arguing for the government in the Supreme Court, the Attorney General made two astounding averments: one, that the voter does not have any right to know how his vote has been recorded or counted, and two, that the public does not have the right to know who has contributed how much to which political party. The first statement was intended to counter the very legitimate demand for a more extensive VVPAT (Voter Verifiable Paper Trail) verification of the votes cast in the EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines), the second was in response to the challenge to the Electoral bonds, which have effectively become the BJP's private ATM.
We have never been in doubt that these statements are a faithful expression of the BJP's private views, but the sheer brazenness of declaring it openly- and that too in court!- is mind-blowing. It is beyond arrogance and hubris, it shows utter contempt for the public, the Constitution and (dare I say it?) even for the highest court in the land. Translated into language which we porkers can understand, the government is actually saying: we will have our way, we don't give a tinker's curse for what the citizenry thinks or what the court decides; we have the majority in Parliament (even if Mahua Moitra and her Lui Vuitton bags are not expelled) and can pass any ordinance or Bill we are inclined to. Misplaced confidence and hubris, did you say? You would be wrong, dear reader, because past events have proved that they are right. The judiciary has never been an obstacle to the ruling party's rampaging depredation of our social, constitutional, legal and institutional landscape. One cannot but help feeling that the govt's impudence is due in no small measure to the court's accommodating and obliging behaviour.
The Supreme Court never fails to disappoint, and has done it again in two recent judgments: on the petition for legalising same sex marriages, and on Manish Sisodia (the Delhi Deputy Chief Minister)'s application for bail. These petitions had been vehemently opposed by the government. Both were dismissed, quite against the run of play. Both judgments came as a surprise, not only because of the inherent contradictions in the judgments themselves, but also because in comments leading up to the judgments, the Court had appeared to favour the petitioners' cause.
The order in the same sex marriage case is retrogressive and mired in a medieval mindset, which exposes the Court's disconnect with a rapidly changing social order. By refusing to legalise same sex marriages, or allowing same sex couples to adopt, or giving them civil rights as a couple, the Court may have warmed the cockles of the BJP/RSS heart but it has also given a thumbs up to obscurantist forces. By directing that the government set up a committee under the Cabinet Secretary to examine the matter to confer more rights on the LGBTS and queer communities, the Court is only displaying its naivete, or deliberately deluding itself: does it really expect an officer who is on extension in service and who has been party to every unilateral and illiberal decision taken by the present regime, to propose any expansion of the rights of this section of society, something this government is vociferously opposed to?
The logic in the Manish Sisodia case is even more difficult to comprehend. In the course of arguments leading up to the judgment the Court had time and again castigated the prosecution for lack of any evidence against the accused. It had even gone so far as to say that there was no money trail to link Sisodia with any bribe, and that the ED's (Enforcement Directorate) case would collapse in two minutes during trial. And yet, it denied him bail and sent him back to jail. Such a vacillating and equivocal attitude can only encourage the govt. to lock up more people for months, confident that the courts will not enlarge them on bail, evidence or no evidence. Clearly, this order is based more on presumption than on solid evidence.
The Electoral Bonds case was taken up after five years, the delay allowing the BJP to mop up almost Rs.5500 crores, many times more than that received by all the other parties combined. The court has now concluded the hearings and reserved its order more than two weeks ago, again giving the BJP the opportunity to open the window for another tranche this week. This will enable it to secure all the donations it needs for the 2024 elections: whatever the court now decides will effectively be irrelevant for the coming general elections, and after that, who knows- we're all dead (or conveniently reemployed) in the long run, in any case.
In the Maharashtra disqualification case between the two Shiv Sena factions the Speaker continues to ignore, if not defy, the SC's repeated orders for a quick decision. The Speaker has been given such a long rope that he is using it to strangle whatever vestiges of democracy remains in the state. The Article 370 case similarly hangs in the limbo, the orders reserved, and democracy continues to elude Jammu and Kashmir. Umar Khalid continiues to rot in jail, as do the Bhima Koregaon accused, with their trials nowhere in sight. The Bilkis Bano case has disappeared from the radar, if not the court's registry. Whatever happened to the Pegasus Committee report, or the SEBI's investigation in the charges against the Adani conglomerate?
With every day's delay in deciding such crucial cases, or in delivering reserved orders, the status quo (which can only favour the government of the day) becomes a fait accompli, all the more difficult to reverse. It emboldens the government to continue with its bulldozer tactics, and to take the court for granted. Which is why the Attorney General can make the kind of statements he does and continue cocking a snook, as it were, at the courts. Earlier this month he even cautioned the Court (was it a veiled warning?) not to cross its limits, when the CJI (Chief Justice of India) fixed 31st December as the deadline for the Maharashtra Speaker to decide the MLAs' disqualification case!
It may be that the Court wishes to avoid a confrontation with the executive, and therefore "urges" when it should direct, or "requests" when it should mandate, or "persuades" when it should command. But such a timid approach is not working; it takes two to avoid a clash, and this government is perpetually in an adversarial mode. Moreover, it also reduces the majesty of the law and dilutes the credibility of legal institutions in the eyes of the citizenry. No amount of table thumping rhetoric and platitudes from pulpits outside the court can define a judge- what defines him or her is her judgment inside a courtroom, and that has been sadly lacking for the last few years.
What we need is for the Court to administer the law without fear or favour, to practice within the court what it preaches outside it at seminars, conventions and in key-note speeches. We need fewer sermons, obiter dicta and moral grandstanding from the judiciary and more concern for our foundational freedoms and rights, stern messaging to the government, and imposition of consequences for defying orders. "Stooping to conquer" may be an interesting phrase for an Oliver Goldsmith play, but entirely inappropriate for our current political environment; the phrase "Flattering to deceive" may describe it better, don't you think?
Friday, 10 November 2023
GENOCIDE HAS NO NUANCES
In my blog last fortnight (World Leaders and War Criminals) I had opined that what Israel and the USA were doing in tandem in Gaza was a war crime. Since then the criminality has only intensified and two thousand more innocent Palestinians have been murdered, with the world-global north, south and middle- either remaining silent or muttering inanities of the Blinken type that are specious and intended to give more time to Netanyahu to achieve his objective of depopulating the strip. A non binding UN resolution moved by Jordan for a ceasefire on humanitarian grounds has been passed by the General Assembly (for whatever it is worth), but to our eternal shame India has not voted in favour of a ceasefire. A reliable estimate states that Israel has already killed 1% of Gaza's population; in Indian terms that would amount to about 14 million deaths.
Surely, both the irony of our posture and its perfidy cannot be lost on any serious or objective observer of our foreign policy. Here is the self-proclaimed leader of the global south-the Vishwaguru- which has just spent 4000 crores at the G-20 conclave to burnish these delusive credentials, but has now become just a camp follower of the global north! It is a "leader" without any followers, a general without an army. That is the irony. The perfidy lies in an External Affairs Minister who has spent his entire career in the IFS (Indian Foreign Service) supporting the Palestinian cause (our time tested and age-old policy), but now has no stirrings of conscience in joining the pro-Israeli ranks. Either he has changed his mind (which is difficult to do at an age when most of your mind is in furlough in any case) or he has sold his soul for the loaves of office. I am inclined to plump for the latter explanation, given his strident expressions of loyalty to the right wing ideology and the Supreme Leader)for quite some time now. Which diminishes him as a human being: he has abandoned his principles and values and has now become a full fledged member of a callous, opportunistic, amoral and transactional universe. I wonder if he can sleep at night; he probably can, what with the experience acquired in the Ukraine war, doing precisely the same. India now languishes in a no man's land- "terra nullius". We have abdicated any moral right to lead the global south, and in the global north we are now just another parvenu seeking only to stay in the good books of the USA, putting all our eggs in the geo-political basket and picking off crumbs from the high table. Our time of reckoning will come sometime, but it will not save the Palestinians from further slaughter. No one with an IQ above 50 (which excludes most of the bhakts, naturally) will buy our canard that we are maintaining "neutrality" in the Gaza conflict. Neutrality in a dispute between the world's fourth most powerful army, a nuclear power to boot, and a putative "nation" that comprises millions of displaced people with no government, economy or army and 80% of whom survive on humanitarian aid, is no neutrality; it is complicity with the former. As Martin Luther King had said: there can be no neutrality between right and wrong, or between good and evil. Neutrality in such a context means supporting the wrong and the evil. Which brings me to my next point.
In response to my earlier piece I have received quite a few responses on the blog as well as by email. I won't bother with the bhakts and trolls since radical Hindutva, Nazism and Zionism all are poisonous fruits of the same genealogical tree and by definition can only exude venom. But there are a lot of otherwise well-read and reasonable people who appear to have succumbed to the "theory of nuances" in the ongoing pogrom and slaughter of Palestinians. This fake theory, and their argument, goes something like this: Israel's disproportionate assault on Gaza is not a simple black and white issue, it has nuances which must be understood. It is defending itself from a terrorist organisation which has beheaded babies and raped grandmothers, launches rockets against Israel, has taken 250 hostages, the Gazans fully support Hamas and must now pay the price for it. Most important, Jews have a right to the lands of the Palestinians since they were the original settlers, 900,000 Jews were evicted from Palestine in the early 20th century by the Arabs; some apologists even go as far back as the Old Testament and Canaanite period to justify Israels's claim to Palestinian lands. Most of this is misleading hogwash and an attempt to deflect the debate and to direct it to a road that leads away from recorded history and the war crimes being committed in Gaza.
Today's global outrage should not be about who, the Jews or the Palestinians, are right about their respective claims to land- the anger should be about the slaughter of innocent non-combatants, women and children in Gaza in their thousands. There are no nuances here- not in the killing of 4500 children and 1500 women, not in the further 2000 buried under the blasted rubble, not in the bombing of hospitals, schools, refugee camps, not in the forced eviction of 800,000 Gazans from their homes in the north, not in the use of starvation as a weapon of war, not in the blockade of food, fuel and medicines to a people already horrendously deprived by 17 years of a blockade and 75 years of forcible displacement.
There are no nuances in killing tens of thousands of innocents in order to assert a legal right to land which was never yours in the first place. (At the beginning of the modern era, which in the case of the middle-east can be said to begin with the conquest of Arab lands by the Ottoman Turks in the 16th century, there were barely 5000 Jews left in Palestine: they started arriving in large numbers only after 1947, starting the continuing dispossession of the Palestinians- a claim borne out by the United Nations time after time, and by the Oslo Accord).
There are no nuances in determining the culpability of Israel in the ongoing genocide and ethnic cleansing. Even if Hamas is said to be a terrorist organisation (which it is not), this does not entitle Israel to behave like a terrorist itself, as it has been doing since 1947. A sovereign , democratic state has to abide by international rules and covenants, during peace and war; it has to be held to a higher standard than a terrorist outfit. If it conducts itself like a terrorist entity, there is no subtlety needed to determine its guilt. In any case, independent evidence is now emerging that Netanyahu himself covertly supported and funded Hamas as a counter balance to the Palestinian Authority, it is his creation. The news about beheading of babies has been debunked by independent journalists. Even more damning evidence is beginning to indicate that most of the Jewish settlers killed on the 7th and 8th of October were killed by the Israel's IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) in retaliatory fire under its "Hannibal Directive" which requires the killing of the enemy at all costs, even if it involves the death of its own citizens. Some reports reveal that these Israelis were killed by tank shells and 5.7mm bullets which the Hamas does not possess. Nor does Hamas possess the kind of lethal missiles, one of which killed 500 people in a Gaza hospital in one midnight strike. Netanyahu is using the Hamas as a pretext for his subsequent savagery and to stay on in power; someone in India seems to be doing the same with our bankrupt "neutrality".
Looking for nuances in this conflict, or claiming neutrality, is sheer Islamophobia and complicity in the neo-colonial game playing out before our eyes. The western colonialism of the 16th and 17th centuries is back, this time riding on the back of a Biblical justification, oil and gas, the Ben Gurion canal, racial hatred, and its Messiahs are a self-proclaimed Zionist in the White House who cannot climb three stairs without stumbling and a psychopath whose mind is "a black hole" which cannot be penetrated, according to his psychiatrist who had committed suicide. Truly has it been said: Homo homini lupus est. Man is wolf to man.
Saturday, 4 November 2023
WHO NEEDS A SMART CITY ?
I come from Kanpur in UP. In the immortal words of Bill Bryson: someone had to. Though why it had to be me I can't understand. But it could have been worse: I could have come from next door Unnao, in which case I'd be sharing the stage with Sakshi Maharaj and giving consular advice to our Muslim brethren on how to move to Pakistan, preferably in more than one piece. And though I no longer reside in Kanpur I used to go there once a year to visit my Dad and furtively check his will to ensure that my name had not been struck off the list of "labhartis", to use a word in fashion these days. But more on that later.


