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Friday 11 June 2021

DEBUNKING THE " TINA" MYTH

   Mythology forms a large part of the BJP-RSS combine's world view ( such as it is), and the TINA  (There Is No Alternative ) myth is an important part of it. TINA is, predictably, the last refuge of the government's supporters who have now run out of money, oxygen, jobs, Remdesiver, vaccines, doctored statistics and hollow excuses to shore up their claim to continuing in power. This is, however, as much of a fairy tale as the claims of Baba Ramdev and the sermons of Saint Jaggi of encroached tribal lands fame. Incidentally, here's something most of us are probably not aware of: TINA was not coined as a political acronym but as an economic one. It is famously ascribed to the supporters of Margaret Thatcher's market capitalism, when she started dismantling the socialist structure of the UK economy: There is no alternative to market reforms, they said, hence TINA. The pandemic, of course, has revealed how wrong the Thatcherites and Reaganites were, just as it is now exposing how wrong the BJP acolytes are in repeating it ad-nauseam, albeit in a political context. 

  The first, and obvious response to the TINA argument is: any alternative is better than the present dispensation. Because, in these seven years, the entire edifice of the country has been dismantled and the gains of the last seventy years frittered away. In just about every internationally accepted parameter of good governance and economics the decline has been precipitous; here are some of the most recent global rankings of India:

HDI                             131/ 189  

HUNGER                     94/ 107

PEACE                         139/163

HAPPINESS                 144/153

HEALTHCARE            145/195

GENDER GAP              140/156

ENVIRONMENT          168/180

INTERNET QUALITY  79/85

WATER QUALITY        120/122

PRESS FREEDOM        142/180

PER CAPITA GDP         142/189 

 Every single indicator has declined since 2014. And it would not be correct to blame the pandemic alone for this consistent decline, for the slide had started in 2016 itself. Add to all this the shrinking of the economy by 7.3% in 2020, the highest unemployment rate in 45 years, the 200 million people pushed below the poverty line, the 32 million who have exited the middle class. I am not even going to speak about the social unrest, the gutted institutions, the collapse of federalism, the handling of the pandemic, our relegation to a " partly free democracy " by respected international monitors, for these are well known. We cannot do any worse, no matter which alternative regime comes to power at the center. As a democracy, at least.

  Secondly, democracies are not suited for self- anointed "strong men" who take pride in being obstinate, contemptuous of science and learning, feel they are omnipotent and omniscient, do not tolerate dissent or criticism, and are insensitive to public opinion. Their macho image does initially appeal to the electorate, and they perpetuate it by creating a constant churn, keeping the populace unsettled, stoking all kinds of fears and imagined threats. An apprehensive populace then looks for a "strong" leader to protect them, an instinct handed down to us from our monkey ancestors. We look for the "alpha male" to protect the clan, and who better than the Superman or Homo Deus we mistakenly elected ?                        It is this basic humanoid trait that autocrats exploit to rule, but its downsides soon become apparent and the disillusionment sets in. Of the world's four larger-than-life leaders in democratic countries - all in this alpha male mode- two have been consigned to history- Trump and Netanyahu-, one ( Bolsanaro of Brazil ) has reached the end game of his rule , only Mr. Modi is still ensconced in power. In those three countries also the TINA factor was trotted out by supporters, to be proved wrong in the face of disastrous governance. It's not certain that India will buck this global trend in 2024.

  The next specious argument advanced by the TINA supporters is the " After me, the deluge" chestnut, viz. that Mr. Modi is indispensable, that without him there would be complete chaos, a balkanisation of the country, a threat to our borders. The opposite, in fact, is true. This government has already handed over thousands of sq. kms of territory in Ladakh to the Chinese with barely a whimper. We are at loggerheads with all our immediate neighbours, and now even Nepal has raised a border dispute with us! The federal structure of the country today is under unprecedented strain, with the Center refusing to accept that under the Constitution we are a union of states, in which the latter are equal partners. The latest confrontation over the Chief Secretary of Bengal has opened another dangerous chapter in the usurpation of powers of the states- the brazen attempt to convert the very character and charter of the All India Services ( the IAS, IPS and Indian Forest Service). These services are unique, they are the only civil services in the world that have been given a constitutional status , with dual and pari-passu control by the Center and the states. Sardar Patel's vision was that they would act as a bridge between the Union and State governments, as a unifying force between the states. And this vision has worked very well for the last 70 years. Even at times of political differences between Delhi and the states, the respective bureaucracies have ensured that coordination between the two was maintained and the system has worked. No more, however :  increasingly, Mr. Modi's over arching and autocratic government is trying to establish exclusive and over-riding control over these services. This can only be a recipe for balkanisation and the last nail in the coffin of the federal character of the country.

  India does not need a " strong" central government on a constant overdose of steroids, it needs one which cooperates with the states and is sensitive to their concerns, one which provides leadership through consultations and mutual respect for the Opposition, not through midnight diktats based on pique and vindictiveness. In fact, what suits our country best is a coalition government at the Center, not a single party one with a brute majority which can be misused. The country's governance has suffered both times a single party has come to power with its own over-whelming majority - Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 and Mr. Modi in 2016/2019. The most productive and successful regimes in the last thirty years have all been coalition governments- those of Narsimha Rao, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh in UPA-1. All three governments did well by the country in every important sphere- economy, welfare, environment, center-state relations, human rights of the people, social integration, even external relations. By contrast, Mr. Modi's majority government has been an unmitigated disaster; even worse, it has undone a lot of the good work of the previous dispensations and set the country back by decades.

   It cannot be denied that no single political party can provide a national alternative to the BJP. The only one which could have done so - the Congress - is in self-destruct mode and will take a long time, if ever, to come in from the cold. The answer to TINA is a coalition of strong regional parties. Only a coalition can work in a country with 29 states, 22 languages ( as per the Eighth schedule of the Constitution), 19500 other languages, 6 major religions ( not counting the faiths professed by 6 million tribals). In one respect at least India is a unique global miracle- as Ramchandra Guha has pointed out in INDIA AFTER GANDHI, all other countries are based on, and defined on the basis of, their ethnicity, religion or language. India is the only major nation which is defined by multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious values. This diversity in one nation is indeed nothing less than a miracle. And that is why only a multi-party government- a COALITION government- can do justice to this diversity. No one political formation can capture, and serve, the splendour of this diverse civilisation. A coalition of parties also provides the checks and balances, the regional voices, the representation to diverse interests without which a democracy cannot function. It provides strength, not weakness.

  It can work ( it has in the past) if only these regional satraps can recognise the common enemy and subjugate their individual egos and agendas for a larger national good. If the voter can free himself from the web of lies, false promises, majoritarian paranoia and the mirage of religio- cultural domination. The choice exists and it is for us to grab it with both hands. If we still refuse to see the writing on the wall then one will have to agree with Ernest Hemingway:

" And in the end the age was handed

The sort of shit that it demanded."

 


30 comments:

  1. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala....the domino effect will only gather momentum. Next should be UP early next year, where the cracks are already showing. Regional parties coming to power in the states will at least break the fascist Hindutva chain of the BJP Central Government.

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  2. I also believe that crisis throws up new leadership. Whether or not it success is not half as important as the message that alternatives are available.

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  3. Fully agree.
    Cometh the hour, findeth the man.
    Even a 'kichdi' would be preferable to the present dispensation.

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    1. 'kichdi' is very healthy. Specially when recuperating.

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    2. Absolutely biased opinion of a person who does not seem to believe in democracy Modi is not a self appointed dictator but elected by majority of Indians twice and most likely to be elected again in 2024.We have no alternative to him today as there is no leader in opposition at National level

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    3. Politics abhors a vacuum.TINA is the last resort when all other factors have failed.Even an honest rickshaw wala will be better than a rabidly dishonest chaiwala.

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  4. Agree. Yes,èven a'Khichdi'would be preferable. The INC will be an important ingredient in the khichdi.

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  5. Yeah...I pray for a miracle each day 🙏...we need to get our country back!!!! It's stifling amongst all this hatred...arrogance...pompousness....discord...... ( the list is endless)
    Our future generations deserve better...!!

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  6. Thank you for the article, if still people vote in the upcoming election for bjp and modi then I don't know whether i have lost it or its India who loat it, hope this article meaning
    would reach out to masses

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  7. Well written and sadly true.

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  8. Excellent piece. Spot on. May your tribe increase.pray we do not go through the alarming situation the people had to go through.

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  9. "Of the world's four larger-than-life leaders in democratic countries" - that is the catch in the argument. Are we a democratic country today? Or is democracy just a cloak?

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  10. I agree 100%. If there is a God, there has to be an alternative. Even Indira Gandhi seemed invincible before the Emergency.

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  11. I can see Mamta Banerjee as the next opposition face to take on fascist Hindutva cult party . She has won west bengal against the brute might of the hindutva cult party supported by money power of the corporate reliance and adnani who have bern served all the major assets of India on a platter. In case the opposition can throw the yogi cult out in 2022 , I am sure 2024 will see Mamta Banerjer as the next PM of India . She is experienced and the only street fighter left in India to take on the cult if the congress and other regional parties support her . I think priyanka should be the chief minister candidate for the congress in case congress wants to revive its fortunes in UP and come increase its vote share of around 5 to atleast 20.

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    1. Not a good idea to have Mamata Banerjee in a national role. She is as autocratic.

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  12. what else can be expected from a bureaucrat !! this is their true colour ..
    boon or a bane ?!

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  13. Very well written account Yes, may your tribe increase

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  14. I agree with most everything you have written, except the part about the pandemic exposing market reforms. If anything, the pandemic has exposed the idea that big government works. Govt failures were compensated by the free market of NGOs, citizen volunteer groups, Gurudwaras etc. Testing eventually started to work when the private sector stepped it. Had it not been for them, thousands more would have died. Why is that everytime the govt screws up the blame is put on free markets. India needs more free markets and less big government.

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  15. I agree with most everything you have written, except the part about the pandemic exposing market reforms. If anything, the pandemic has exposed the idea that big government works. Govt failures were compensated by the free market of NGOs, citizen volunteer groups, Gurudwaras etc. Testing eventually started to work when the private sector stepped it. Had it not been for them, thousands more would have died. Why is that everytime the govt screws up the blame is put on free markets. India needs more free markets and less big government.

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  16. As a proud Indian, I truthfully say my competition is not China but the government of India. And again as a patriotic Indian, I would like to outsource the government of India to the Republic of Singapore.

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  17. Dear Sir,

    I couldn't agree more with you but I think there is one dimension missing in your analysis - the creeping of in-your-face bigotry in our general populace. What was fringe yesterday is now mainstream. There are large swathes in this country for whom Modi is a moderate, they want a Yogi now. And this phenomenon is here to stay. It was always there in the undercurrents but is now shamelessly out in the open. So, regardless of which dispensation comes to power they will most likely follow a version of Congress' soft Hindutva with the damage to the Republic and social fabric of our country being irreversible. This is what scares me when I think that my daughter will grow up in a very different India from the one I did and unfortunately, the cynic in me doesn't see a lot of hope.

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  18. Cataclysmic.
    That is what India's present is. And a cataclysm has to play itself out. Such is the destruction, wrought by both man and the moment, that change in its fullness will have to be borne.
    Democracy is nothing if not dynamic. And dynamism can be explosive as well as systemic.
    - I think the concept of ministries and ministers has run its course.
    - An honest and strong bureaucracy must be made to return to run the
    ministries.
    - No more elected grandees and sham professionals.
    - Regional parties must rule their states
    - Parliament must be made up of MPs nominated by the States, subject to recall. - The President and Vice President must be chosen by the people as a proper and
    acceptable Face of the country.
    - MPs must choose their leader in Parliament
    - Judges and the Bar should choose the Heads of Courts.
    - And soldiers must run the forces, accountable to people through Parliament
    judiciary and State Govt.
    - And we must allow ladies the power they deserve.
    Only then will India heal and attain the positions she has been denied.

    I think there is enough wisdom to work the details and modalities out. But if we do not have the courage to make this happen we will perish and fall apart as a nation. The national elections can be set up in phases - first as referendums of process and then as implementation of change. Brought about by the judiciary, the Election Commission and the people.
    It is time.

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  19. You should have added a little para about the intolerance against those who dare to raise their voice ... the anti-national chant,, asking to go to Pakistan. .. lynching.. setting the law enforcement against cartoonists and activists. India is turning into a very sad country.

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  20. The choice before the Indian voter can't be any clearer.
    Nation is facing a Clear and Present Danger - there is no scope for ifs and buts!
    At this hour of crisis,we need to come together and stop the train wreck .Every passing moment bring us closer to the precipice .
    It will take us years to recover from this political pandemic which has brought us so close to a complete collapse of every democratic institution and shaken the very foundation of our republic.
    Surely the elections in UP will clearly lay out the road map for the change ahead.
    Jai Hind!

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  21. Why doesn't the Author be a an advisor to Congress and find "the" alternative. He should walk the talk instead of of merely grandstanding. He has administrative experience, let him make a difference

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    1. I would not agree with the expression
      “ grandstanding “ because that is not what people of vast administrative experience and erudition are about. Certainly not a forthright person such as Mr. Shukla. However, we do agree wholeheartedly with the suggestion that people of his caliber should help organise an effective and strong system to strengthen an effective opposition in parliament. It’s a daunting task but urgently and critically important and needed.

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  22. There is a need for people like Avay Shukla to join the rough and tumble of actual governance and systemic change. With an analytical and perceptive mind, he should not sit back as a mere commentator or analyst, such people can benefit the country by joining in and taking the lead. It’s a pity that he is read by and understandable by a small minority of English speaking and reading people. Join the mainstream and help the country and the people to effect a much needed change. Mine will be the first vote!!

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  23. Such analysis has little meaning unless each of the Rankings have a web link where they can be verified by the reader.Otherwise likely to be junked as 'sour grapes'.

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  24. Each of these rankings are unfortunately accurate and many nails in the manufacturing of our national coffin unless we the people join hands with this voice to articulate and propel many of the useful changes suggested above... Also the reduction of the civil service to virtually a sycophantic flunky type certainly spells the death knell of governance... Attempts have been made to tame the "permanent" executive in the past, not to erode to this extent!

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    1. A contrarian view requiring full support. There is much substance in what Mr Shukla says.

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