NEITHER FISH NOR FOWL WON'T WORK
Saturday, 30 December 2023
FISH OR FOWL ?-- I.N.D.I.A ALLIANCE HAS TO DECIDE- QUICKLY!
Friday, 22 December 2023
FAKE DEMOCRACIES AND REAL ONES
Amidst the ongoing cacophony of news and Deep Fake news, claims and counter claims, dissemination and dissembling, it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish between fake and genuine democracies. What makes a country a real democracy? Is it a "progressive and liberal" Constitution? An "independent" judiciary? A "fearless" press and media? An "elected" government? An "independent" civil service? On paper, yes, but in reality these attributes are neither sufficient nor enough to ensure a democratic government or a free society. This is being demonstrated to us on a daily basis right here at home.
For the sake of appearances, and press releases, India has all the attributes mentioned above but the reality is a different kettle of fish altogether. There is little point in listing out what has gone wrong with our Constitution, judiciary, press, civil services in recent years, for they are all well documented and known to those who care about such matters. For instance, retired Justice of the Supreme Court Rohinton Fali Nariman has listed out the four developments this year which have disturbed him most, the Supreme Court has yet to give any judgment of any consequence where it has spoken against the government at the centre, the Election Commission has become some kind of Philosopher's stone which can turn the ruling party's dross into the gold of victories, Parliament has become a vestigial appendage like the coccyx in the human body which has long outlived its utility and has to be cast aside, the civil services (and the defense forces) have either become camp followers of the ruling dispensation, or have hunkered down in their well cushioned burrows like the marmots in the More plains of Ladakh, the media is giving some serious competition to the oldest profession in the world. All these have become what Pratap Bhanu Mehta has termed a "pseudo constitutional facade" of parliamentary democracy. For the fact is that we are an eroding democracy and an uncaring society, and this can be best understood by a comparison with some other, more genuine, democracies. Comparisons are odious, but they are sometimes necessary to recognize our hidden ugliness. Just a couple of examples should suffice to make the point.
Take our government's and society's response to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Any criticism of Israel is not allowed: lectures are not permitted, protests are banned, police cases are filed against those who dare to put up posts on social media. The media will not show both sides of the story, celebrities and influencers are conspicuously silent, all in thrall of the government's support for the settler-colonial policy of Israel and its allies in the developed world. But in the same developed world, and indeed within Israel itself, there are no restrictions on the expression of the wide- spread anger against Israel. Biden is being condemned in the US media daily for supporting the slaughter in Gaza, even his State Deptt. officials are staging a kind of mini revolt, expressing their dissent through the "dissent line" created for feedback. Public opinion is turning against him. In November, journalists with the BBC protested against their own management for being selective in its coverage of the war, dehumanising Palestinians and failing to show the Israeli atrocities. The Universities are pushing back against their pro-Israel funders who want to rein in the anti-Jewish sentiments on the campuses, and at least one President has resigned. Public protests are being staged in the UK, France, Germany, Australia, Canada demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. None of these governments can even consider suppressing these protests, and sooner or later, these will have their effect on the policies of these countries. This is how genuine democracies give voice to their citizens' concerns against their own governments turning rogue.
The London Metropolitan police recently provided another example of how real democracies work. Various organisations had planned a massive march in support of Palestine on Armistice Day last month. The Home Secretary and the government of Uncle Tom (brazenly pro-Israel)wanted the police to deny permission for it, the Police Commissioner refused, on the grounds that there was no threat to law and order and he could not legally ban the march. Braverman went public on the issue, accusing the London Police of partisanship and selective favouritism. The Commissioner stood his ground, the march went ahead peacefully, the only arrests were of some right wing elements who attempted to disrupt it. And guess what? There was so much anger and outrage against Braverman that, a couple of days later, Sunak had to sack the Home Secretary. THIS is how democracies work, not like our own police who have become like private militias of any ruling party, whether at the Center or in the states.
Our defense Chiefs are looking increasingly like men of straw, notwithstanding their impressively resplendent uniforms, with more stars than in the Milky Way. They have been silent even as the political executive has run rough shod over their decades old culture and ethos, changing their regimental traditions, ranks, uniforms, mode of recruitment, perhaps even interfering in operational and tactical matters. And now, we are told, some of these retired worthies may even be attending the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, a politico-religious event, further eroding the apolitical and religion-neutral ethos of our armed forces. Compare this with the stance adopted by General Milley, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who resisted every move by Trump to use the military to stay on in power. He made his reservations clear to the White House and almost resigned in June 2020, but then told his staff: " If they want to court-martial me or put me in prison, have at it....I will fight from the inside."
Real democracies, as opposed to fake ones. respect their citizens' sentiments, do not suppress them by the use of force, and have robust institutions and civil societies that stand up and be counted at critical moments. We are not yet a fake democracy, but we are getting there fast. Democracies do not die at the hands of governments alone: when public conscience and opinion dies, so do democracies.
Friday, 15 December 2023
"DUST TO DUST, ASHES TO ASHES" IS NO LONGER SUSTAINABLE
Friday, 8 December 2023
IS THE FIRST- TIME VOTER THE X FACTOR IN BJP'S VICTORIES ?
It's not unusual to do a post-mortem after a massacre, and so the forensics have begun after the electoral carnage of the 3rd of December. The hindsight morticians, of all hues, have started their analysis of what went wrong with the opposition carcasses littering the battlefield in five states: EVMs, caste, Hindutva, "panauti" barbs, tribals, in-fighting, corruption, electoral bonds-it's an endless list which shall keep the pundits occupied till it's time for the next blood- letting in May next year. Not one to be discouraged by my lack of expertise in this field, however, I would like to add my two bits to the autopsy.
Not much attention has been paid so far on the impact of the behaviour/ preferences of the first-time voter (FTV) on electoral outcomes since 2019. This is surprising given their increasing numbers. According to available figures there were 80 million (8 crore) FTVs in 2019, and the estimates for 2024 are 150 million, or 15 crores ( NEWS18 report dated 31.8.23, based on ECI estimates). That is an almost twofold increase between two elections. Even if we discount the 2024 estimates by 25%, even then FTVs will form a sizeable proportion of total voters.
FTVs comprise between 10% and 15% of the total electorate, perhaps more than most castes or religious denominations. They constitute a separate and distinct cohort, with their own problems, aspirations, preferences and mental make-up. You would expect that all major political parties would be aware of this, and that they would cater to them specifically in their manifestos, as they do for all other electorally significant blocs. Especially as available data shows that FTVs have a significant influence and impact on election results.
A 2014 analysis by IndiaSpend had concluded that this youthful segment had catapulted the BJP to power in the five states with the highest proportion of young voters. Below is a table indicating the five states which had added the most number of FTVs between 2014 and 2018, and the number of Lok Sabha seats in each:
STATE FTV ADDED (IN LAKHS) LOK SABHA SEATS
Bihar 61.33 40
WBengal 55.02 42
Rajasthan 43.45 25
Maharashtra 41.70 48
U.P. 39.74 80
TOTAL 241.26 235
It is significant to note that this accounts for about 43% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha.
Consider now another set of statistics. In the just concluded elections to five states (where the BJP won three by sizeable margins), the vote share of the BJP has actually increased substantially over the 2018 figures: Rajasthan by 3.69%, Madhya Pradesh by 7.66%, and Chattisgarh by 13.37%; even in Telangana (which it lost) its vote share has gone up by 9%. This is a psephological puzzle because the general consensus is that Modi's brand equity is no longer as strong as it was in 2018-19, that the appeal of Hindutva has peaked, and that economic issues such as price rise and unemployment have begun to bite. What then is the generic explanation for the party's phenomenal rise in vote share in 2023?
There is a distinct possibility that the answer could lie in the hitherto ignored First Time Voter. In an interesting article, The Seven Sins of New India by K. Jayakumar, published in The New Indian Express on the 25th of November this year, postulates that the young generation of today (read FTV), "with no exposure to an earlier ethos of public life, begins to believe that what it sees today is normal." And what this generation sees today is listed out by Jayakumar as the "seven sins of new India." These are: Inequality before the law, vindictive vehemence, intolerance to criticism, corruption, doublespeak, window dressing, and the baggage of secularism. These seven sins comprise the new normal and have changed the idiom of public life and polity completely.
I find this a fascinating thesis, one which makes eminent sense. Just step back and consider- the FTV of today was only eight years old in 2014, he was thirteen in 2019. These are impressionable ages, the crucible when values, behaviour, beliefs and prejudices are formed. This generation has grown up in the Modi years and has seen nothing but the seven deadly sins in operation, carpet bombed by media and party propaganda to believe in this right wing ideology and that Modi is the Vishwaguru. They are creatures of this new toxic environment, and their value systems can only align with this new reality, having experienced no other one. I, for one, therefore would be very surprised if they did not vote for the BJP in elections, almost as a bloc. This thesis brings together all the anecdotal data and statistics mentioned above, and may go some way in explaining the BJP's continued appeal and the increase in its vote share. The FTV may not be the only explanation but it certainly merits a serious look. And the beauty of this phenomenon is that with each incremental year of this regime, their numbers will keep increasing by a few millions, providing the BJP an ever increasing constituency of programmed supporters. There can be no worse news for the Opposition.
I may be wrong (I usually am in such matters), but can the Opposition continue to ignore the First Time Voter? He/she may be their ticket to ride.
Friday, 1 December 2023
CHAR DHAM OF THE GREAT HIMALAYAN NATIONAL PARK [4]- THE PARBATI RIVER
CHAR DHAM OF
THE GREAT HIMALAYAN NATIONAL PARK [4]
THE PARBATI
RIVER—DAUGHTER OF MANTALAI
[The river Parbati, just above Kasol. Photo by author]
The Parbati is the best known and biggest of the four GHNP rivers, meeting the Beas at Bhunter, just below Kullu. It is the only one that does not originate from a glacier- its womb is the huge, forbidding Mantalai lake at 14000 feet, at the foot of the Pin Parbat pass which divides the Spiti and Kullu valleys. The Parbati valley, one of the two best known valleys in the state (along with the Sangla valley in Kinnaur), is totally uninhabited for most of its length and is shrouded in mystery, myth and wonder; a number of trekkers have disappeared in its remote fastness, never to be heard of again. At the foot of the 120 km long valley are the small settlements of Kasol and Manikaran, hubs for both drug and religious tourism (Manikaran has the famous hot springs and Gurudwara), attracting thousands of tourists, including from Israel and Russia. These, however, are add-on aberrations introduced by man, the real Parbati valley upstream of these urbanised scars is quite different, a natural Eden of resplendent vegetation, wildlife, perennial streams and high mountains.
[ An unforgettable view of the Parbati valley vegetation. Photo by author]
The trek to Mantalai takes three to four days and begins at
Gwacha, about 15 kms beyond Manikaran where the Tosh Nullah joins the river.
The track winds upwards, past Pulga ( there is an Italian pizzeria here!),
Nagthan (the last village), Rudranag (so named because of a waterfall shaped
like a serpent below which the god Ganesh is believed to have meditated), Ishidwara,
which actually had a restaurant run by an intrepid Sharmaji from Palampur when
we went up there- I fondly hope he’s still there! Ten kms later is the famous
Kheer Ganga (2900 m.), the USP of which is a pool fed by a hot water spring, once pristine and unsullied but now
overrun with dhabas and serais. Fortunately, the debasing tentacle of tourism
ends here, and beyond is the realm of the gujjar, gaddi and the brown bear. One
can camp here for the first night or move up another five kms to Mandron on the
left bank of the river. We camped at the latter spot and met a gujjar, Lal Hussain, who had made his semi-permanent camp
here, along with his four wives, 25 buffaloes and a hidden hoard about which he
would tell us nothing! He is the last of a disappearing breed of hardy
pastoralists, threatened by reduced ranges for their cattle, the inroads of
development and a new generation which craves the smart phone, TV and an urban
lifestyle.
[Hot water pool at Kheer Ganga. Photo by author]
The first hair-raising experience is encountered on the
second day at Nichidwar- crossing the river on a wire basket suspended over the
waters on a cable and pulled by ropes to the other side! Definitely not for the
faint hearted. About six kms further on a deep gorge meets the Parbati on its
right bank: this is Dibbi Bokri and attached to it is a fascinating tale of an
Englishman who discovered emeralds in the gorge, killed off his gorkha labourers one
night and disappeared with the jewels, never to be heard of again! In the late nineties the
NHPC had proposed to build a huge dam below Dibbi Bokri to impound the waters
of the Parbati and generate 800 MW of power- Phase I of the Parbati project. This would
have been an environmental disaster of unimaginable proportions; fortunately,
it was refused environmental clearance. There were apprehensions that at some
later date the idea would be revived, but in 2010 the HP govt. has notified the
entire area above Pulga right up to the base of the Pin Parbat as a National
Park- the Kheer Ganga NP- so hopefully this lovely landscape has been saved for
posterity.
By the evening of the second day, after having covered 25
kms, one reaches Pandupul ( 3700 m.), where the river has to be crossed once
again to the right bank. But this time over one immense , monolithic boulder
the size of a house which straddles the river which is a gushing torrent about
ten meters wide at this point. Legend has it that the huge boulder was put
there by Bhim when the Pandavas came here during their exile, hence the name of
the place. We silently thanked that brave warrior, for having spared us another
wire basket crossing!
[The massive boulder straddling the river at Pandupul. Photo by author]
The third day’s trek is a gentle, 16 km walk up the valley which at this point is about one km. wide, with the adolescent Parbati happily gurgling down its left side. One ambles through a thickly carpeted pasture, knee deep in multi- hued flowers, flanked on both sides by towering snow covered peaks from which tumble small streams, impatient to join the Parbati on its way down to the Beas, criss-crossing the pasture. After about 14 km the valley widens out quite a bit and the river now distributes itself into a score of water courses, almost like a delta. Negotiating them is no problem and after another kilometre or so one is confronted with a huge rockfall, 100 meters high, which blocks the valley. This is the appropriately named Shahidwar; the Parbati has carved out a passage for itself on the right but we had to clamber over the mound of rocks. Cresting it, we came face to face with the magnificent Mantalai lake, the womb from which the Parbati takes birth.[The infant Parbati exiting the Mantalai lake. Photo by author]
The landscape here, at 4100 meters, is awesome. The lake is huge, nestled in an elliptical basin about two kms long and half a km wide, in a south-east/north-west alignment. It is a pure glacial lake, completely enclosed by towering mountains from whose glaciers and snowfields innumerable streams and run-offs feed the lake. Little mounds of rocks, called "jognis", are scattered all around on its banks- these are sacred spots where the locals come to pray and plant colourful flags; we did so too: in these rugged regions it is better to have the gods on your side! There is only one small opening on the north-west side, though which the infant Parbati gleefully escapes from its forbidding cradle in a frothing gush of water. The landscape is majestic and hypnotic but Mantalai is not a pretty lake like Khajjiar, or scenic like Chandratal, or gentle like Renuka. Mantalai is, instead, imperious in its grandeur, confident in its silence and arrogant in its ruggedness. It commands respect, not love. Beyond it, another two days of hard and dangerous trekking and 1500 meters higher up, is the Pin Parbat pass, and beyond that the Pin Valley National Park. This is the realm of the wind, ice and snow and the primeval forces of creation rule here. Man is an intruder here who the gods tolerate when they are well inclined, and who perishes if they are not so minded. He should pass through with reverence, his head bowed in humble respect. May it be so for eternity.
[The sacred "jognis" on the shores of the Mantalai lake. Photo by author]