THE SECOND COMING OF ARVIND KEJRIWAL--LESSONS FROM THE DELHI ELECTIONS

As far as I know Delhi is at least 2000kms from the nearest sea. Yet it was hit by a tsunami on the morning of the 10th of February that will change its political and social landscape for ever.  For the second time in less than fourteen months a nondescript, diminutive man with baggy trousers and a persistent cough, with just 20 crore rupees in his pocket has humbled the two largest national parties in the country with a combined ancestry of 150 years and coffers overflowing with more than 4000 crore rupees. By winning 67 of the 70 seats on offer he has done what no other political party has ever done in any state. In the process he has faced down every vested interest and bloc in the country-the bureaucracy, the media, the police, organised industry- and been subjected to every abuse in the Indian political lexicon. Kejriwal's stupendous and overwhelming victory in Delhi will rewrite the rules of politics in future, for the Indian voter has now seen at first hand that HE CAN BE THE CHANGE THAT HE WANTS . There is much to be learnt from this election and given below are some of these lessons.

The Aam Aadmi Party( AAP) has emerged as the undisputed regional party of Delhi, just as SP, Telugu Desam and TMC, to name just a few, are the dominant regional parties in their respective states. It has been able to successfully articulate the specific demands and needs of the citizens of Delhi such as electricity, water, women's safety, slum improvements, shortage of colleges, corruption and so on. In the process it has highlighted, by contrast, the fatal flaw in the BJP campaign-the stress on  " achievements " at the national level at the cost of local issues. The AAP exposed this misplaced emphasis brilliantly, for the ordinary citizen of Delhi, almost half of whom live in slums and unauthorised colonies, is more interested in the quality of his daily life and not in FDI or nuclear deals. Like all regional parties AAP perhaps understands the pulse of the voter better than national parties which tend to look at everything through the prism of Delhi.

But the unique quality of AAP is that it has the promise of being much more than just a regional party, and not just because Delhi has people from every other state in India in ever increasing numbers. It is because the very psyche, the essential philosophy of AAP is national in an ideating way. Firstly, its core agenda- corruption, focus on the common man, safety of women, electoral reforms, transparency-has a pan India appeal and is not limited to any region or state. Second, the appeal and reach of AAP is not based on any vote bank( unlike the other regional parties). AAP does not pander to any particular caste, or religion, or community, or even any income group. The voting pattern in Delhi establishes this beyond any doubt: by winning in 67 out of 70 constituencies, by winning in Trilokpuri as well as Greater Kailash, in Okhla as well as in New Delhi, in Matiamahal as well as in  Harinagar, in Jangpura as well as in Patel Nagar the party has convincingly debunked the misplaced theory that it appeals only to the poor, the Muslims and the Scheduled Castes.

This phenomenally broad allure of AAP gives it a national quality, in the true sense of the word, not just in the mathematical sense in which the Election Commission categorises a national party. In other words, the AAP is emerging as a SYNTHESISER of political and social aspirations, in the same manner as the Congress was at the time of Independance and later during the rule of Nehru, Shastri and the early Indira Gandhi, or in the manner of VP Singh before he let his ambition and Mandal consume him. Like the early Congress the AAP has been able to bring under one umbrella the  aspirations of various social groups and transmute them into a core agenda that has found popular support. It is ironical that whereas the BJP has almost succeeded in giving the country a " Congress mukt "( Congress free) Bharat or India, it has not been able to occupy the space vacated by the Congress because of its hubris and angularities, and has instead allowed the AAP to enter this space.

The overwhelming victory of the AAP has positioned it well to become the catalyst for a united Opposition, something which the Modi juggernaut badly needs. It can now become the nucleus around which other opposition parties can coalesce. In January 2014 I had penned a piece in these columns- IS AAP THE REAL THIRD FRONT?- in which I had visualised just such a possibility. The reactions of Omar Abdullah, JD(U), TMC and other parties hold out this promise in times to come. For the AAP victory in Delhi is too huge to be attributed to local factors, or to Kiran Bedi, alone. It reflects an emerging disenchantment with the BJP at the national level, and therefore it argues for a national Alternative, which the AAP can now initiate.

Even more important, the AAP under Kejriwal is the true harbinger of change and transformation of the cesspool that politics in India has increasingly become. It is because  its politics has a moral and ethical underpinning, a principled core that none of our parties has. AAP seeks to promote decentralised administration, a Praja Raj in the place of the present Neta Raj and Babu Raj. It unabashedly challenges the status quo which only benefits the few, which is why it is so detested in the salons of South Delhi and the farmhouses of Chhatarpur. Not surprisingly, therefore, Kejriwal has been called " toxic ",an anarchist and a Naxal( by the Prime Minister, no less!) and has had at least ten police cases registered against him. These are the time honoured tactics employed by those who resist any meaningful change and Kejriwal has prevailed in spite of them, maybe because of them! But his victory in Delhi has released this particular genie from the bottle and I have no doubt that in the coming months and years we shall be witnessing a metamorphosis in the nature of political discourse in the country, the manner in which political parties raise funding and select candidates, the equation between the rulers and the ruled, the relationship between the Center and the States. No party has seriously articulated these issues: they have been used simply as stepping stones to power, and forgotten once power is attained because such questions, we must not forget, challenge the powerful. But Kejriwal is not likely to forget them because they are the cornerstones of his victory.

Kejriwal as Chief Minister will change the dynamics of Delhi in a significant way. The city will no longer belong to those who reside in Lutyen's Delhi or in South Delhi alone-the majority shareholders of the metropolis in unfashionable addresses like Bawana and Narela, Geeta Colony and Mahipalpur will increasingly stake their claim to a slice of the capital's pie of Rupees 40000 crores. Mr. Modi too cannot for long continue to treat Delhi as an enclave of the Central govt: one of Kejriwal's main promises to the people was statehood for Delhi-they have enthusiastically supported it and it can be ignored no longer. With more than two thirds of Delhi's voters supporting this demand Modi can ignore it only at his own peril. In some manner or the other the central govt. will have to part with its stranglehold on the DDA, MCD and the Delhi police-this is inevitable, as are the confrontations that will precede it. Kejriwal has a renewed and revalidated mandate for it, much as the elite may decry it, and I foresee the struggle for control of Delhi as part of a larger redrawing of relationships between the centre and the states

There are important lessons for the BJP too from these elections.

Mr. Modi must realise that his personal evolution over the last nine months has disappointed the electorate and they do not approve of it. They would like to see the Modi of May 2014 who spoke of a bright future, of economic growth, of a tolerant society where the minorities did not fear the majority, of a govt. both transparent and responsive. They do not want the Modi they now see instead- domineering, uncommunicative, unresponsive, contemptuous of civil society or any dissent, tacitly supportive of rabid fundamentalism. They want to see him as the chai-wallah, not the fashionista in ten lakh rupee suits. No amount of economic achievements can compensate for these attributes and expectations in a democracy and Mr. Modi would do well not to see the Stock Exchange as his barometer of success: after all, not even 2% of our population play the market, while 67% vote. The Prime Minister has to go back to being the Modi of early 2014.

The BJP, on the other hand, has been conveyed an even more seminal message by the voter of Delhi--the politics of polarisation will just not work any more in a country where 970 million cell phones have been sold, with almost 250 million inter net users. The people have seen through the " good cop- bad cop " pantomine and do not approve of the BJP's ( and its government's) covert support for the Hindu majoritarians,for the Vedic dinosaurs from a bygone era. The BJP must realise that it cannot project a modernistic Prime Minister while at the same time validating the primordial nonsense spouted by its Ministers, Sadhvis, Sakshi Maharajas, and ramming forcible conversions, Sanskrit, Love jihad and Good Governance Day down the throats of its people. Delhi has shown that such a duplicitous approach does not pay dividends. It alienates the party from the minorities, dalits, the youth, the professionals and all thinking people, even the moderate and liberal Hindu. The proof lies in the results of the Lok Sabha elections when the BJP romped home on the exclusive promise of development. In the last nine months it has gone back on this pledge, and the Delhi voter has punished it emphatically-in 2014 ( Parliamentary elections) the party had won in 60 of Delhi's 70 constituencies: today it has won in only 3. Can the people speak any louder?

Kejriwal has set the agenda for the future, and the people have endorsed it. The Indian voter has come of age, and the Delhi results are as much his victory as that of Kejriwal. Mr. Modi has made some mistakes in the last few months, but he should remember that the most liberal education is learning from one's mistakes. A defeat can become a victory if one derives the right lessons from it. 

A CRITIQUE OF THE WORLD BANK REPORT " SCALING THE HEIGHTS " ON HIMACHAL PRADESH

The recent report of the World Bank, published on the HILLPOST site last week, lauding the efforts of the Himachal Pradesh govt. is a fairly balanced one within the very limited scope it appears to have set for itself. It admittedly is a socio-economic survey but its attempt to go beyond mere statistics is half hearted, and it completey excludes from its study certain vital and emerging areas that pose a serious challenge to the state's administrators.

There cannot be an iota of doubt that the state has made commendable progress, far beyond the national average, in many sectors such as health, education, land reforms, status of women etc. To my mind, this has been made possible by a polity and bureaucracy which, though not necessarilly more able than their counterparts in other states, has always been much more accessible and accountable to the people, with fewer opportunities for going astray in monetary matters. The people have been able to hold their rulers accountable because the social profile in the state is extremely egalitarian, with no one community or caste dominating the others; with very few fissures in the social fabric, there are no dominant interest groups which can hijack policy making or administration in one direction. The result has been, as the report also observes, a balanced development across regions, communities, genders and sectors. But everything is not as rosy as the World Bank may like to believe.

Some of the favourable statistics have come at a cost which the report would have done well to highlight. Growth and development in the state have been almost exclusively driven by the govt. and not private enterprise, which, as every economist will tell you, is not sustainable in the long run. Himachal has the highest population to govt. employee ratio in the country, 28% of its working population is employed in the public sector-that is, almost 1 in every 3 Himachali works for the government. This report itself records that half of all men in urban areas are employed in the public sector as are one fifth of urban women-this, for me, is a very disturbing statistic. All its PSU's have run up losses in hundreds of crores and continue to siphon off scarce resources without delivering anything tangible in return. The consequence is that the state has a debt of about Rs. 30000 crores and on a per capita basis is perhaps the most indebted state in the country. The reality is that Himachal has been subsisting on largesse from the Centre and the Planning Commission, and has reason to be very apprehensive now that the latter has been wound up. The Finance Ministry may not be as accommodating in times to come. The state needs a large dose of fiscal discipline and it would perhaps have helped if the World Bank had provided this context in its report.

The report raises some perplexing contradictions in the state's development record but does not explain them adequately. The most salient one is the declining sex ratio-this has seen a sharp drop from 970( females per thousand males) in 1981 to 905 in 2011. On the face of it this is inexplicable given that all other indicators in respect of women are very positive. The report does not throw any light on this strange phenomenon. However, I would venture to postulate that this decline is the result of another positive indicator-the declining TFR( Total Fertility Rate): this now stands at 1.9-one of the lowest in India and just 0.1 point above the accepted Net Replacement Rate, below which a population decline is generally considered to be irreversible. This achievement has to be considered in the context of the Asian proclivity for preferring the male child: as families become smaller this proclivity becomes exaggerated, at the cost of the girl child. This has been experienced in China as one of the adverse fall outs of its one child norm. I would suggest that this cultural trait is at work in Himachal also, and this conclusion is reinforced by the report's finding that pre-natal sex determination is quite wide spread in the state. The govt. has to wake up to this before it is too late.

A second contradiction in spite of other favourable indicators is the finding that 1/3 rd of all children in the state suffer from malnutrition and have stunted growth. The World Bank should have tried to find out the reasons for this baffling figure but has not done so inspite of asserting elsewhere that Himachal has the second highest per capita income in the country and that just about every rural family possesses agricultural assets. An explanation to this conundrum may involve issues related to distributive aspects of income, sanitation. imbalances in the dietary basket or/and gaps in health care. It is important enough, however, for the state to initiate a detailed study into this disturbing finding.

There are certain important areas of the development matrix which the report completely ignores, or makes just a passing reference to. The most vital of them is the environment, and the impact of Himachal's development model on it. It is an incontrovertible fact that the quality of the state's forests have been declining over the last two decades in spite of the ban on green felling. Since !981( when the FCA came into force) it has lost approximately 11000 hectares of its best forests to hydel projects, road construction and other " developmental" activities. One result of this has been extensive soil erosion, siltation of rivers and attendant natural disasters. A 2007 report of the National Remote Sensing Authority, Hyderabad on Land Degradation categorises HP as one of the three states in the country that have the highest percentage of soil degradation. There is widespread opposition to such projects in the rural areas, especially in the districts of Kinnaur, Kullu and Chamba, where traditional irrigation systems have been destroyed, hundreds of "gharats " or water mills rendered inoperable and water sources devastated. Rural livelihoods have been affected in these areas but for some strange reason successive govts. normally responsive to people's protestations, have chosen to ignore these facts. The World Bank would have done well to have gone deeper into these issues, and to have perused two studies on this subject titled " The Socio-Ecological impacts of Small Hydro-power projects in Himachal Pradesh " by Prof. J Mark Baker of Humboldt University, California, USA.

Tourism has been mentioned in passing in the report, but what has not been examined is the faulty model of mass tourism being practiced, mostly by default, in the state and the complete lack of direction to it by the govt. Issues of tourism, urbanisation and environmental degradation are all interconnected in this state and each sector feeds off the inefficiencies of the other. In the process urban spaces are becoming more and more unplanned and some, like Shimla and Manali, have reached a state of irreversible decay and decline. As the tentacles of tourism expand into more pristine rural areas these too are under threat.

Climate change and global warming is another major area of concern that the World Bank has not bothered to address. I find this mystifying because the Himalayan states are the most vulnerable and the impact of climate changes( now inevitable) on agriculture, rural livelihoods, water availability, food security, the natural environment etc. shall be felt in its worst form in states like Himachal. The govt. needs to start planning for a change of strategy in sectors such as agriculture, animal husbandry,forestry, disaster management,water management, industrialisation etc. in order to prepare for the changes that are just a few years ahead. So far it appears to have done nothing concrete, and the report should have stressed on the importance of launching missions for this purpose.

There is, however, one part in the report where there is one laudatory reference to the govt's efforts on the environmental front, where the World Bank praises the govt. for its goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the near future. Unfortunately, even this is misplaced and mildly amusing. The fact is that Himachal has always been, not just a carbon -neutral but a carbon- negative state! And this has not been owing to the efforts of any govt., but to the munificence of Nature. Just a few simple figures will establish this. The total forest area of the state( 2007 figures) is 14668 sq. kms. It is an accepted thesis that one hectare of good forest sequestrates 10 metric tonnes of carbon per annum. This would mean that our forests sequester 14.668 million tonnes of carbon every year. Assuming the state's  population as 7 million( it is probably lower), the per capita sequestration comes to 2.18 tonnes p.a. The state's actual emission is apprx. 1/2 tonnes per capita. In other words, on a per capita basis the state captures 1.68 tonnes MORE carbon than it emits every year. We are already carbon -negative and therefore this part of the report is a bit misleading.

In conclusion, one would only like to reiterate that though the state has done well so far, there are still many challenges and unsolved problems ahead. Some of the sins of the past are beginning to catch up with us, and the inevitable downside of economic prosperity is now showing itself. As with everything in life these days the pace of change has accelerated and the state's policy makers and administrators cannot rest on their past laurels but have rise to the challenges ahead. 

TWO FLEW INTO THE CUCKOO'S NEST

The cuckoo is the proverbial opportunist of the avian world. Too lazy to apply itself to any hard work, and lacking the confidence to create anything itself, it does not build its own nest but instead takes over nests built by other birds. It thrives on the labour of others. On the 16th of this month two more cuckoos have joined our political firmament, much to the disappointment of their supporters and erstwhile admirers.

Kiran Bedi and Shazia Ilmi had for some time been chirping the implied message that they were badly in need of nests to feather and that they could not wait any longer to find one. The political jungle is an unforgiving place and life can be hard if you don't have a warm nest. And both these ladies were in a hurry: one had just lost two elections and needed to reassert her relevance; the other was 66 years old and was in grave danger of being forgotten by the news channels now that she could no longer piggy back on an old seer who had retreated to his distant village.

Ms. Bedi has always wanted to be the dominant leader but fate had denied her the opportunity to become one so far. In the IPS she could not make it to Commissioner of Police, Delhi. In the IAC she could at best be an advisor to Anna Hazare. Post Hazare she did not have the guts( or commitment) to plough the( then) lonely furrow that Kejriwal did and consequently could only glare from the margins as AAP became a force to reckon with. She did not build a nest of her own.

Ms Ilmi probably thought her looks and TV anchor background would keep her the focus of attention within the AAP. To her credit it must be conceded that, unlike Ms. Bedi, she slogged it out on the streets and slums of Delhi both for IAC and AAP and won herself many admirers for her sheer gutsiness. But then she lost two elections. She probably realised one day that, with the Modi juggernaut rolling on relentlessly, it might be a long time before she could enjoy the fruits of her labours. Not prepared to wait any longer, she invented the " lack of democracy in the AAP" chestnut and walked out of the party. But she still needed a nest of her own.

Their embracing the BJP at this crucial juncture is a betrayal of their supporters, and even more sadly, a betrayal of their own credo. How could they have done the chameleon act so blatantly? In May 2013 Ms. Bedi had grandly declared that " Neither (of the two main political parties-i.e Congress and BJP) deserves our vote. ". She had then gone on to attack Mr. Modi personally by predicting: " One day( NM) will have to respond with clarity about riot massacre. " Shazia Ilmi was no less critical. She constantly questioned the BJP's funding process and even waxed poetical on 21st Nov. 2013 when she intoned: " Hypocrisy, thy name is BJP. " No wonder Anna Hazare is not taking their calls!

Their attempts to put a gloss of vindication on their back stabbing of an emerging civil society is pathetic at best and unscrupulous at worst. Sound bytes on TV cannot hide the ugly face of mercenary opportunism that is visible through their charade. They are, we are told, "inspired" by Mr. Modi's leadership and " want to strengthen his hands". Ms. Bedi even did a Galileo like performance when she trilled that Modi was the sun around which stars like her revolved!  These hossannas to the Prime Minister are no doubt music to  BJP ears but there is a discordance in them which needs to be pointed out. 

The Anna Hazare campaign( which spawned the India Against Corruption movement, which brought these ladies to public notice in a big way) was never about performance or leadership or economic policies of governments. It was about corruption, transparency, sensitivity to civil society, communal harmony, accountability of political leaders. It was about cleansing the soul of Indian politics, of restoring to it an inner core of morality and ethics, of keeping at its centre the interests of the common man. Anna Hazare, Kejriwal, Bedi and Ilmi became the darlings of a new aspiring India because they espoused and struggled for these standard of behaviour in politics and governments.

Kejriwal has continued this desperate struggle over the last two years: he has been mocked, derided, slapped; he has committed more than his share of mistakes, he has got derailed at times. But like the needle of a compass he has always returned to his true pole, refused to compromise with entrenched interests and held fast to his dream of an India based on " sattvas " not "tamas ." We expected people like Bedi and Ilmi to keep him company in this struggle but they have stabbed him in the back for a few pieces of silver. Given their backgrounds as genuine social activists what, we are entitled to ask, could have induced them to join a party that has forgotten about the LokPal Bill, that has prevented the RTI Act from being applied to political parties, that will do nothing to stop its cohorts from intimidating the minority communities?

They claim, with a hypocrisy that can escape nobody, that they want to "strengthen Mr. Modi's hands ". Modi doesn't need his hands strengthened, thank you.

Mr. Modi is a strong Prime Minister who will become stronger in the next two years with more MPs in the Rajya Sabha as he wins more states. He is doing a fine job in a materialistic, IMF manner and has provided a much needed push to the economy and infrastructure. What the country needs is not a stronger Prime Minister, but a more accountable Prime Minister ; a Prime Minister who will rein in the venom-spouting dragons of the Sangh outfits; a Prime Minister whose undoubted oratory can assuage and assure, not just excite and animate. We need a Prime Minister who conveys the message of inclusiveness through actions, not just words; a Prime Minster whose government puts the interests of tribals and farmers at least on par with those of  of industrialists and tycoons, a Prime Minister more responsive to civil society and non governmental organisations, not all of whom are anti-national.

The BJP government does not lack for decisiveness, or talent, or will, or ideas. What it lacks is an underpinning of ethical values, an accommodative and inclusive spirit, a sense of the diversity of this country, a genuine willingness to confront the monster of corruption, a feeling for the man on the street. These are precisely the attributes and values that Kejriwal, in his admittedly imperfect and inadequate manner, has been trying to inject into our venal political system. He has faltered at many points, but at least he has not given up the struggle or compromised on his core belief.

Ms. Bedi and Ilmi, on the other hand, have capitulated totally and jumped on to the gravy train. The tragedy is that, had they stood with Kejriwal and AAP on this and fought alongside him, they could have made a real change in the way politics is played out in India. By bringing the AAP to power in Delhi they would have made the BJP and Mr. Modi reconsider their dogmatic positions on many divisive issues and perhaps persuaded them to deliver a more value based government.

That chance is now gone. Ms. Bedi may yet become Chief Minister of Delhi and Ms. Ilmi may perhaps become head of some Board or Corporation. But they have lost their moral legitimacy and distinct stature and are now just two more politicians, two more opportunistic cuckoos looking for nests to jump into. And India is the poorer for it. To tweak those famous lines by an Urdu poet:

Barbade chaman karne ko

Ek hi cuckoo kafi hai,

Har shakh per cuckoo baitha ho

To anjame gulistan kya hoga ?

MR. MODI'S KASHMIR MOMENT: STATESMAN OR POLITICIAN ?

It has been truly said that there occasionally comes a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, can carry them to glory, and if not, can leave them regretting and ruing the missed opportunity. Such a moment has come for Mr. Modi in Kashmir. He now has an opportunity which was inconceivable even one year ago: to form a government representing a unique Hindu-Muslim alliance in a Muslim dominated state which remains an unfinished desiderata of Partition. The implications of this are so enormous for our country, and for both the BJP and  the parties in the Valley, that Mr. Modi MUST rise above the usual opportunism and considerations of vote bank politics, and not dictate an alliance on his conditions. Being the Prime Minister and leader of the ruling party whose credentials are suspect in the Valley, he has to go more than halfway to meet the PDP in forming the government in Kashmir. By doing so he will gain enormously, and the country will gain even more. 

It has long been alleged ( but by no means proven) that post-2002 Gujarat was the laboratory of Hindutva. That may or may not be true, but what cannot be denied is that today Kashmir has the opportunity of becoming the laboratory of genuine secularism, of synthesizing Hindu and Muslim politics, of bridging the divide between India's two dominant communities.

The PDP with its 28 seats and the BJP with 25 seats can form an unassailable government in Kashmir, and should. It would be for the first time that a professed party of the Hindu right would be allying in government with an equally professed Muslim grouping which till now have been sworn enemies. It would be for the first time that a very significant ( and Hindu) part of the state( Jammu) would genuinely feel that it is represented in government.

The implications of such an alliance for the rest of the country would be even more momentous. It would establish convincingly that there can be a common meeting ground between the politics of the two religions, that their relationship need not always be one of distrust and confrontation, and that the imperatives of sincere governance can bridge the divide between them as nothing else can. This can become a model for other states with substantial Muslim populations such as UP, Assam, West Bengal in due course of time and may even lead to the over-lapping of religion-based vote banks, if not their decimation. 

Once the BJP and the PDP start working together it is inevitable that the jagged and extreme positions of both parties would be modulated and tempered to accommodate the other's concerns and a culture of reasonableness and judiciousness( which both currently seem to be short of) would come to prevail. The PDP would have to give up its insistence on dialogue with Pakistan, move closer to the Indian Constitution when it talks of " autonomy ", cease its castigation of the security forces and veneration of terrorists, engage in a constructive dialogue with the Centre on AFSPA, Article 370 and the Uniform Civil Code, pay more than mere lip service for the rehabilitation of the Kashmiri pandits. There would be a corresponding paradigm shift within the ideology of the BJP because it cannot allow the Kashmir experiment to fail either. It would have to respect, and not summarily dismiss as Pakistan inspired, the genuine feelings and reservations of the citizens of the Valley; being part of the civilian power apparatus with the accountability that comes with it, it could no longer treat the Valley as a defacto occupied territory with the military calling the shots; it too would have to engage in a dialogue with the citizens on AFSPA, UCC and Article 370 instead of ramming it down their throats with its brute majority in Parliament; it would have to be more mindful of Kashmiri sentiments while taking decisions in Delhi that effect Kashmiris. 

There would be an international dimension also projected by this coalition. For one, the very ground would shift from under Pakistan's feet- it would no longer be able to spread the canard that the Muslim residents of the state are being suppressed by a Hindu dominated central government: there could not be a more emphatic demonstration of this lie if the two communities are seen to be together in government. Pakistan's support base among the more disaffected elements in Kashmir would inevitably erode over time as the PDP draws more and more of the latter into the mainstream with its demonstrated-and beneficial- partnership with the party that rules in Delhi. The global community and its governments cannot fail to note this change, this paradigm shift in relations between the state and the Centre, and whatever covert support Pakistan enjoys for its Kashmir  policy would also be considerably dessicated, and we would be that much closer to a permanent solution to this vexed legacy.

The most significant impact of this changed chemistry in Kashmir would, however, be on the politics in the rest of India. Having taken this bold step the BJP cannot allow this initiative to fail, for then it would have lost the Muslim community for ever, and would earn the odium of proven intolerance.  Having moderated some of its extreme positions and dogmas in Kashmir, the BJP cannot march to a different music in the rest of the country without losing credibility: it cannot speak with one voice to the Muslims in Kashmir and with another voice to their brethren in the other states. There would inevitably be a softening of the extreme ideology of the BJP and a shift away from its obsession with the minorities. The RSS would have to follow suit or risk its own marginalisation and loss of influence on the government. 

This could be the opportunity Mr. Modi needs, and perhaps has been waiting for, to purge his party of the more rabid and bigoted elements within it who have made it difficult for him to govern meaningfully. Having rid himself of such dinosaurs he could then forge more conducive working relationships with other states and parties, regain the trust of Parliament and apply himself to the job for which he was overwhelmingly voted to power seven months ago.

Kashmir in 2015 can become a watershed in the politics of India and in the relationship between its majority and minority communities. But for this to happen Mr. Modi has to show that he is a statesman and not just a politician.

  

CAN MODI DISMOUNT THE TIGER ?

  The unsavoury developments of the last few weeks bring to my mind a limerick from my school days. It goes like this:

                 There was a young lady from Riga

                 Who went for a ride on a tiger

                 They returned from the ride

                 With the lady inside

                 And a smile on the face of the tiger.

It appears to me that Mr. Modi is very much in that lady's shoes-or saddle, if you will- and it needs no great intelligence to figure out who the tiger is: its stripes are saffron and black.

The RSS and its Hindu majoritarian cohorts have played a role in bringing Modi to power, and they are now playing an even bigger role in alienating him from the very people who have reposed their trust in him by making it difficult for him to do anything positive with that power. Mr. Modi began with promise and unveiled ideas that struck a chord with the people, a chord that had gone slack for the last five years. But the discordant notes of the last couple of months have started alarming a lot of his supporters.

The list of provocative incidents is long: abusive comments by his Ministers targetting a specific community, Mr. Mohan Bhagwat's assertion that India is a Hindu rashtra, repeated directives by the HRD Minister to push education in a vedic direction, forcible conversions, usurpation of Christmas by a thinly disguised attempt to eclipse its importance, the Hindu Mahasabha's veneration of Godse, the utterly despicable statement by another worthy that Godse should have killed Nehru instead of Gandhi, the street agitations against the film PK. The agenda of the extreme right majoritarian forces is crystal clear: intimidate all other religions( notice how the Christians have been targetted for the first time) into submitting to a pan Hindu ecology, and rewrite history to authenticate this expropriation of a nation's history and soul.

The ignominous list above is not surprising-we can expect little else from these bodies and individuals that belong to the Jurassic period. What IS surprising, however, is the complete silence of a Prime Minister who is otherwise a great communicator and orator. Why is there not one word of public condemnation from one who came up with the hugely successful " chai pe charcha " and " man ki baat ?" A five minute statement in the Rajya Sabha could have saved two weeks of Parliament's time, but he did not consider it a good trade-off-- why?

The usual excuses trundled out by his acolytes won't wash anymore. Reported admonitions at a closed door party meeting cannot substitute for a declaration in Parliament. Statements by powerless Ministers in Parliament won't reassure a nation that is increasingly on the edge-the whole world by now knows that this is a one man show and that no one else counts. Moreover, when the ruling party's own affiliates openly indulge in socially divisive activities, it is incumbent for the leader himself to explain to, and reassure, the nation that all is well. Mr. Modi takes ( justifiable) pride in absolute control of his party and government, therefore he has to stand up and speak: he has sown the wind and he shall have to reap the whirlwind.

My initial assumption-and that of a lot of others who had reposed trust in him- was that Mr. Modi was not part of this regressive and disruptive brigade and that he would soon bring them to heel. But it has been eight months now, the vicious crescendo is only rising, and the Prime Minister has not uttered a syllable in public to condemn this rising tide of intolerance. One is left, therefore, with no other option but to conclude that all this has his tacit, if not explicit, approval.. Mr. Modi does  have a pronounced streak of hubris in him but he is also a shrewd politician and would not let his ego stand in the way of his development goals, which are being badly compromised by a resurgent opposition and a steady surge of adverse public opinion. If he has been silent all these months it can only be because he empathizes with these Hindu majoritarian sentiments and has not yet renounced his RSS roots. Therefore, while there is no doubting his vision of a modern, first-world India, it shall have to be an India cast in the image conceived by the RSS and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. He has not one, but two visions.

Mr. Modi's second vision casts him in the role of a Hindu Samrat-it appears that he wants to efface the last 1200 years of India's history and resurrect the hey days of the Guptas, the Mauryas and the Chauhans and relegate the Mughals, the British, the Nehrus and the Gandhis to that most modern of appliances- the shredder. But history is not just the past, it is also the present and its strands are so interwoven with the fabric of the contemporary India that they cannot be separated without destroying the whole.

We certainly did not vote for this second vision.

Mr. Modi has to comprehend this, he has to realise that this Icarus-like quality in his psyche will carve a hundred Radcliffe Lines across our landscape. It will also destroy his first vision of a modern India. The hardware is important but it will not work without a compatible software, and this is true of nations also. GDP, FDI, Smart cities, NITI Ayog,  Bullet trains,-all these are commendable objectives but they cannot be achieved without social harmony, religious and cultural tolerance, respect for dissent, cooperation with civil society and a functioning Parliament.

Mr. Modi has to realise that a country as vast and disparate as India cannot be ruled by ordinances, and that he has to at least make an honest attempt at bringing about a consensus on divisive issues. Industry-and foreign capital-will not bring in their billions of investment on the basis of ordinances that will lapse in a few months: to the contrary, an ordinance will only fuel their distrust in our political and legal systems. Far from furthering his goals by taking this route Mr. Modi is only erecting more road blocks.

And finally, Mr. Modi has to realise that winning elections is not the "summum bonum" of a democracy, that the hard work of governance is the true test of a statesman, that if he cannot work with Parliament then he cannot work at all. He should not lose sight of the fact that the Parliament where he did not deign to speak also represents those 69% of voters who DID NOT vote for him or his party!

However, Mr. Modi's primary realisation has to be that he can achieve nothing as long as he marches to the tune of the Sangh Parivar. He must realise-how can he not ?-that they are pushing an agenda different from his. He has to either tame them or jettison them. He may have won the elections because of them but he now has to govern in spite of them. This is one tiger Mr. Modi cannot ride. He has to dismount NOW- because already that smile on the tiger's face is beginning to resemble a " tilak". 

THE UBER RAPE CASE- MAKING SENSE OF ABSURDITY

Its happened again in Delhi and probably would have been marked as just another statistic if the incident had not been connected to an MNC and high-end app. technology. The real tragedy, however, is that everyone-the government, the political parties, the media, the NGOs-are all running around like headless chickens, spouting the same cliches about women's safety, demanding action against Uber, the police, the Transport Deptt, the Home Minister and so on. The grim truth is that this is not just about Uber or about the safety of women- this is about the complete collapse of the Delhi( and all other) police systems. Our public places have been vacated by the state and handed over to the criminals.

It is being made to appear that the cause of the incident was the failure of the verification process. This is all humbug and nothing but a red herring. Firstly, how many verifications is an ordinary citizen supposed to carry out? In Delhi we are already required to get our tenants, servants, drivers, casual employee etc. verified. Is this a police state? Isn't this a tacit admission of the total failure of our law enforcement system, if every person is to be regarded with suspicion unless proved otherwise? If latent criminality has seeped into our society to such an extent that no person can be trusted without a police certification, then we are certainly entitled to ask the question- what has our police and judiciary been doing all these years? The very need for verification is an admission of their failure.

Secondly, the verification process is an absolute farce. Pay Rupees two hundred( as Manish Sisodia  also stated in a TV programme yesterday) and you will get the certificate within twelve hours: refuse to pay and you will never hear from the police again. They have no data base and at best can only write to their counterparts in other states who can't be bothered to reply. This does nothing to curb crime in its present form and only serves to generate more money for the police and provide an excuse( as in the present case) when something goes wrong.

Thirdly, any certificate can be replicated or forged by anyone within a few hours. In the instant case Yadav DID have a certificate-a forged one! It is common knowledge in Delhi university, for example, that students of a few neighbouring states seeking admission in a DU college saunter into the colleges, find out what the cut-offs are, and come back the next day with a mark-sheet showing the requisite marks! Fake driving licences by the hundreds are churned out in every city. My last driver had an unauthorised exact duplicate of his ( legitimate) licence: he couldn't, therefore, be bothered if the police confiscated the original! What value can a certificate have in a country where even central ministers are charged with forging mark-sheets?

The order banning Uber is just a smokescreen. The accused, Yadav, had all the documents which the company was required to ask for. If he turned out be a serial rapist who had spent seven months in jail and had five other sexual molestation cases registered against him but was still roaming the streets like a predator its certainly not the fault of Uber. If he repeated the same offence he is alleged to have committed in 2012 then it is the fault of our judiciary which let him off in the first case, and of the police which fails to keep track of such potential repeat offenders. Women are routinely molested in all forms of public transport-shall we then ban all buses, taxis, auto-rickshaws, even the railways? Do we stop all economic activity in this country just because the police and the judiciary are unable to do the job they are tasked to do?

The simple truth, and the crux of the problem, is that the criminal administration system, especially in our cities, has fallen apart at the seams. Our streets and public places have been vacated by the police and handed over to the criminals. The incontrovertible proof lies in the grim statistics of crime in Delhi published by the Hindustan Times on 27th November. In the last one year crime has gone up by 100%! Street crimes such as robbery, snatching and vehicle thefts have increased by 513%, 137% and 61% respectively. Burglary has gone up by 337% and dacoity by 240%. Every single day 400 citizens of Delhi fall prey to some crime or the other. If this is not a damning indictment of the top brass of the Delhi police, the Lieutenant Governor and the Home Ministry I don't know what else it is.

It is self-evident that there has been a complete abdication of leadership by the senior police officers: they are bereft of ideas, strategies or even commitment. Crime on the street is not their priority-providing security to VVIPs and attending meetings is. There are no policemen on the streets, there is no patrolling or beat system, there is no proactivity, PCR vans are generally found parked at tea stalls with their occupants lounging around. This abject lethargy flies in the face of the experience of urban police forces all over the world, and the one lesson they have all learnt: that if you can control the relatively smaller violations on the streets, you can generate an atmosphere of obedience and respect for the law, and prevent more serious and major crimes. This concept is now known as the " Broken Window" concept: catch the guy who breaks a shop window and you may prevent him from graduating to a murderer or rapist tomorrow. This strategy was popularised by Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his Police Commissioner Bill Bratton in New York in the mid-nineties: its soundness was proved by the fact that violent crimes in New York city fell by 30% in just one year, and murders by 50%.

Such a result, however, requires dedicated effort and leg work on the streets, which our police force is clearly incapable of.

Most street crimes( and even more heinous ones) are committed by repeat offenders or people who are out on bail. The police are required to keep a regular surveillance on these elements which by itself acts as a deterrence- but they can't be bothered. Every police station maintains a register ( BC register) of bad characters whose activities are supposed to be monitored  and homes  regularly visited-this never happens nowadays. Every SHO is supposed to develop an intelligence network in his area to keep tabs on criminal activities and the persons involved: this helps him prevent crimes before they occur or to solve them if they do occur- quite obviously, as the crime graph shows, this is considered a waste of time. These are the three time honoured basics of policing and if even one of them had been observed in the Uber case the incident could have been prevented.

We don't need pontifical Police Commission reports or harangues from the Supreme Court on autonomy of Police Commissioners and DGPs to improve policing. We just need to go back to the basics. We need to appoint officers on merit, not on the basis of their contacts, political affiliations, favours rendered or money paid. We need to have a relook at the recruitment of the constabulary, right up to the level of sub-inspectors. The present lot is undisciplined, avaricious, unskilled, corrupt and riddled with the caste and gender prejudices of the social milieu from which they have come. Since they comprise 94% of the police force nothing will improve unless the constitution of this rank and file is changed. The government should seriously consider reserving 50% of these posts for retired ex-servicemen. Jawans retire by 35 and there is no better disciplined or dedicated material available for the police. Their induction shall, in a very short time, bring a professionalism, impartiality and probity to the police that it is completely missing today, and make it much more effective. The idea will, of course, be fiercely resisted by all politicians and senior police officers whose apple carts it is likely to up-end, but it must be considered seriously.

Crimes in a complex society of 1.2 billion people and 29 states cannot be prevented or controlled unless there is a comprehensive and real time data bank available to the enforcers of the law. There should be a national registry of all convicted criminals, persons charged with crimes, accused out on bail: this could be referred to before granting licences or for verification purposes by employers. Had such a registry been available Yadav would have neither obtained a driver's licence nor a contract at Uber. There should be a similar on-line registry or data bank of driving licences issued or cancelled throughout the country to address vehicle related offences which appear to be spiraling  out of control. The govt. itself has admitted that 30% of driving licences are fake! The bed rock of these registries should be the Aadhar card whose biometric features will make the data virtually fool-proof.

The time has come for the country to have a sane discussion on how to get a grip on a crime graph that is galloping out of control and on a police force whose incompetence is reaching Haiti like proportions. Let us not continue to hide behind excuses like social mind sets to explain away rapes, or free registration of FIRs to explain away increase in dacoity or kidnappings. Let us not further delude ourselves into thinking that we have resolved these problems by creating Nirbhaya funds or by banning radio taxis. Because the problem lies within the edifice of government, not outside it. Change the edifice before it comes crashing down on all of us.    

INVITING TROUBLE

   It's Neerja's birthday later this month and I've been thinking of inviting a few people over for dinner and drinks. And that's precisely where the problem lies. Extending invitations nowadays is a risky proposition, what with the entire nation watching including Arnab Goswami, Shobha De, Swami Adithyanath and Manu Singhvi  (when he is not growing termites, that is). Look at what happened when Prime Minister Modi invited Nawab Sharif to his swearing in: half the nation was swearing at him instead for extending this courtesy to our Enemy No. 1. And soon thereafter the Shahi Imam of Jumma Masjid was held by some to have created a constitutional crisis by NOT inviting Mr. Modi to his son's  "dastarbandi"! Finally, last week another furore was engendered by the selective guest list for the Nehru birthday celebrations. Things have come to such a pass that, no matter who you invite, or don't, you are likely to be labelled either a right-wing fundamentalist or a "sickular", a capitalist or a Nehruvian socialist, a war-monger or a spineless pacifist, a status quoist or an anarchist, and worse.

I have difficult choices to make, as you can see. I can't invite Mr. Modi for a number of reasons, the main among them being that I belong neither to the Gujarat cadre, nor to the Vivekananda Foundation nor to the RSS or to the NRI community. Furthermore he may consider the invite as a ploy to wrangle a post-retirement sinecure (he may not be wrong in this but that is not the point). The point is that he is likely to refuse, and what would my wife think of me then? -that is, if she thinks of me at all.

I could invite Mr. Rahul Gandhi, I suppose, but he is an impulsive person and he might just tear up the card and throw it into the nearest dustbin where that old ordinance is probably still lying. Or he may regard my usually vacant looks as indicating that I belong to an OBC (Other Backward Classes) family  (he HAS made mistakes before, you will concede) and decide to spend the night at my place and have only dal and chapattis for dinner. That would be very inconvenient.

Another possibility is to invite Mr. Robert Vadra, but approaching him with an invitation is a bit of a risk. He is likely to scream: "Are you serious? Are you serious?" four times and knock me down (once is enough in this case) with his sixteen inch biceps. Or he may like the look of my house and decide to buy it. On the other hand, if I DON'T invite him I'll never get that DLF flat in Gurgaon that I have my eyes on.

You see my dilemma? Issuing invitations is serious business these days. But it was not always so and there have been a few memorable moments  in my career worth sharing.

  In the early eighties I was posted as a Deputy Secretary at Shimla, still wet  behind the years and laboriously climbing the learning curve. One day I received an invitation from the Governor for an "At Home" in the Raj Bhavan the next evening. This clashed with my squash game and, since the most potent drink served at the Raj Bhavan was tomato juice laced with Chyawanprash, I decided to skip it. The day after I was summoned by the Chief Secretary (CS) and given a proper dressing down with an implied threat of being posted to Spiti as the Officer on Special Duty (Potatoes, Peas and Ponies).

" Let me explain the rules to you, young man," roared the CS. "You never disregard an invitation from either the Governor or the Chief Minister. An invitation from them is not an invitation-its an Order! Have you got that?"

" Yes sir", I mumbled, but wanting to get things right the first time, I further ventured: "But what about an invitation from you to me sir-what would that be?"

" That, Shukla," he yelled," would be an act of folly! Now take that junior-scale arse of yours out of my office!"

Today, even though that "arse" has now retired in the apex scale, I take invitations more seriously.

   Well intended invitations can sometimes have unintended consequences. I was still at Shimla when Mr. IK Gujral became the Prime Minister and arrived at Shimla with his family for a holiday. I had worked with him earlier when he was the External Affairs Minister and could also claim a tenuous  relationship with him. Armed with these credentials, I called upon him at the Retreat and invited him and his family for lunch to my home: the gracious and warm person that he always was, he immediately accepted. The local administration and Special Protection Group (SPG) were duly informed of this for making the security arrangements required by a Prime Ministerial visit.

All hell broke loose thereafter.

The next morning the SPG arrived at my house even before the bed-tea, in the form of three burly officers in track suits. They rousted me from my warm bed and poked into all the nooks and crannies where assassins could hide or bombs be planted. Since it was a house that was a hundred years old there were numerous such places so the dogs were called in. Three fat Labradors were summoned who promptly started romping in the garden with my Golden Retriever: they didn't find any bombs but they destroyed all my flower beds and were sent away in disgrace. The SPG then turned its attention to my neighbours, all very senior IAS officers who could make or break (more likely) my career. Disappointed at not having been able to implicate me in a plot against the PM, they poured their professional training and expertise on these folks. They were all ordered to close their windows and doors and stay inside till the PM left my house: it was hinted, not too politely, that any head that poked out would be blown away. Hell hath no fury like an IAS officer being ordered about by an IPS officer and it was a long time before I was forgiven by my colleagues for this " humiliation".

One fat policemen was stationed INSIDE the tiny kitchen where Neerja (my wife, folks) was cooking the lunch for Mr. Gujral and family.  He would not move out in spite of all our entreaties: his job, he stated, was to  ensure that no poison was put into the food being cooked for the PM. The situation was getting desperate: Neerja wanted him out and had that NIKE look on her face (JUST DO IT!), and the cop wouldn't budge. Taking advantage of a break when she had left the kitchen I pleaded with the copper: "Listen, just take a look at what my wife has cooked. Don't you think that if Mr. Gujral can survive this kind of food, he can survive any poison?" Surveying the smorgasbord of burnt and oily stuff on display, the constable gave the knowing smile only a husband can, nodded as if in agreement and left. I am glad to report that Mr. Gujral survived the lunch and I went up a couple of notches in Neerja's estimation. Another reason why I just can't invite Mr. Modi. Any marriage can take only so many shocks, and no more.

                                                 

   And now its time to let you all in on a well kept secret. Have you ever wondered how, whenever one invites people over for a wedding , engagement or the birth of a child, the first to land up are the  "hijras" or eunuchs? They WILL NOT LEAVE until you fork out a considerable sum of money to them-and their demands keep pace with the rate of inflation. The going rate in South Delhi is anywhere between Rupees fifty thousand to one lakh! This is their secret: they have informers in all the printing presses (where the cards are printed) and the hospitals/ nursing homes(where the deliveries occur) and so know immediately where to go and do their song, dance and swearing routine. These days I am sure they also have Google maps. The way to beat them is to issue your invitations on-line. Not only will it save you a lot of money, it is also environmentally sustainable as it cuts down on the need for paper. Of course, this stratagem will endure only till some nerd from IIT develops an app to track all on-line invitations. But hopefully by then people will stop marrying in favour of live-in arrangements, and couples will prefer to freeze their eggs for posterity instead of having kids.

                                               

Postscript: I've decided to take Neerja to Murthal on her birthday. Not only are the parathas there to die for, but hopefully there will be no Prime Ministers, SPG, Labradors or Hijras there.